Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

May 6, 2022

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. After Spider-Man: No Way Home, the multiverse is likely to be a Visual Effects powerhouse for the MCU.”
Oscar Results: Still Good. The film is still one of the big Visual Effects players this year.
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The first film pulled in $232 million. After six years, that number is sure to go up, but will it be enough to surpass the original when adjusted for inflation? It’s not certain.”
Box Office Results: $411.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] As expected, the Disney MCU continues churning along with strong box office performance after strong box office performance. No need to question the ultimate tally.

May 13, 2022

Firestarter

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Re-adapting Stephen King novels is a dangerous proposition. The original film, starring Drew Barrymore, is well remembered, but can this one follow in the footsteps of It? I dubious.”
Box Office Results: $9.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The push to re-adapt any number of Stephen King novels requires the same kind of nadir of quality that possessed the original set of adaptations, half of them were good, half were bad. This was apparently bad and thus a flop.

May 20, 2022

Downton Abbey: A New Era

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Television adaptations to the big screen aren’t often Oscar contenders, just ask The Simpsons Movie and the first Downton Abbey film. Both got bupkis.”
Oscar Results: Still weak. There hasn’t been much to change this year’s calculus for where the film can compete and against what.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. When you look back at the popular television show, it wouldn’t have been the first one to sound like a loss leader at the box office, but the first filmic adaptation pulled in nearly $100 million. It’s been a long time since that film released and the demographic that made it a success is probably still a bit pandemic shy, so I expect a diminished result.”
Box Office Results: $43.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The first film wasn’t that big of a hit, so a sequel wasn’t necessary. This pretty much puts a nail in the series.

Men (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Alex Garland’s films, while often well regarded just don’t make a dent at the box office. This one has a mysterious trailer, which isn’t likely to pull in a lot of people as the genre it’s going for is indeterminate.”
Box Office Results: $7.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Alex Garland doesn’t have the kind of name to sell movies like this easily and after his last effort was a box office disappointment, it’s not surprising that this is as well.

May 27, 2022

Bob’s Burgers

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The Simpsons Movie was a strong box office player, but almost everyone had heard of or seen that show. This is a less broadly familiar effort and the trailer seems targeted at only fans of the series, which won’t help it break out at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $31.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Was the animated series ever popular enough to deserve a big screen adaptation. I think this box office performance pretty much answers that question.

Top Gun: Maverick

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. In 1986, not only was Top Gun a box office success, it managed to score four Oscar nominations. One of the categories it was cited in is gone, but Sound, Original Song, and Film Editing are still available. It is not likely that it will figure in any of those races, but if it’s a big enough hit, Oscar voters may be willing to give it some attention.”
Oscar Results: Now Good. The film was such a huge box office success, the Academy would be lambasted for ignoring it. That said, it could give it some craft nominations (Sound specifically) and call it a day.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This sequel to the popular 1986 film will be a test of audience patience with the rehashing of 1980s films for financial gain. No one asked for this and it’s unclear if anyone will truly be excited about it even with Tom Cruise in the starring role.”
Box Office Results: $714.7 (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) M
Thoughts: [Major Success] The film’s shocking box office success may be partially attributed to nostalgia, but a lot of people seem to think this film is the antithesis of wokeness. Of course, those people would be extremely wrong, but Paramount doesn’t care. They made a mint.