Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

June 3, 2022

Watcher

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. This film looks like one of those horror thrillers that disappoints when released wide.”
Box Office Results: $1.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The film ddn’t sound like a box office contender on paper and the trailer diminished its chances, so it came out with a seriously low tally.

June 10, 2022

Jurassic World: Dominion

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. In spite of the original film’s Oscar haul, this new trilogy has yet to pull off an Oscar nomination, even in Best Visual Effects where it might be considered dominant.”
Oscar Results: Still Uncertain. The film did well enough at the box office, but the franchise has still struggled for recognition, so who knows for sure at this juncture.
Box Office Prospects: $400 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The first film in this new trilogy was a huge hit, the second film was less of one, but this third one shouold stay on par with the second for a solid finish.”
Box Office Results: $376 M
Thoughts: [Success] While it didn’t quite reach the highs once thought possible, it was still one of the year’s biggest hits, which is saying something.

June 17, 2022

Lightyear

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. With the Disney/Pixar dominance in play, the film should have little trouble securing a Best Animated Feature nomination, but a win might depend on its competition.”
Oscar Results: Now Poor. The film was a disaster with critics, which suggests the film’s Oscar chances are possibly dashed. It’s still possible, but the chances of it being the juggernaut it sounded like on paper are now nil.
Box Office Prospects: $450 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Pixar films always do well, but this is a semi-prequel to the vaunted Toy Story franchise, which should prove a major player at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $118.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Unlike other Pixar films, this one didn’t quite reach the box office stratosphere, though it still managed a decent mid-ranged result.

June 24, 2022

The Black Phone

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s a fresh horror idea, which should earn it some attendance, but I imagine it getting pushed back so many times is a bad sign.”
Box Office Results: $89.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] It was hard to see if this film was going to be a big hit or not, but with solid reviews, it pulled out a pretty good box office tally for an original horror effort.

Elvis

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Although a Best Picture berth isn’t likely, Baz Luhrmann has been known to score below-the-line nominatinos and I can’t imagine that Production Design and Costume Design aren’t likely nominations for the film and wins aren’t out of the question either.”
Oscar Results: Still Good. While not all of the components of the film have come away unscathed, the film did well enough at the box office and was reasonably well liked by critics, so it’s still a decent contender in several categories, but mostly for its Costume Design if nothing else.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Elvis was hugely popular several decades ago, even after his death, but his star seems to have faded some in recent years. That might suggest his fans aren’t likely to show up at the box office, but I could be wrong.”
Box Office Results: $151 M
Thoughts: [Success] While it certainly outperformed my original expectations, there was some possibility that it could have been a much bigger hit, but wasn’t. That said, this is still a solid set of numbers.