Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

July 1, 2022

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. The Academy hasn’t shown much interest in this franchise, so I doubt we’ll see it in the Oscar nominations.”
Oscar Results: Still Poor. While there aren’t a lot of viable contenders for a Best Animated Feature nomination this year, this is unlikely to be one of the few.
Box Office Prospects: $280 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The first Minions movie outperformed all but the second film in the Despicable Me series. At $363 million, it gives us an idea of how this second film might perform. That said, the third Despicable Me came out after and there was a noticeable drop. With uncertainty about family attention at the box office, I’m going a bit conservative with this prediction.”
Box Office Results: $369.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Whatever Illumination is doing, it’s doing it well. The box office for this film is outstanding whereas the Disney/Pixar counterparts have not. This is a stellar performance in an environment that didn’t seem audience friendly.

Mr. Malcolm’s List

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. While the period costumes and production design could be an Oscar contender, there will be no limit to the number of such films competing and I don’t see this one finding a path through the morass.”
Oscar Results: Now Unlikely. The film flopped at the box office and generated no buzz and while the production designers and costume designers sometimes go with off-the-wall choices, this isn’t likely to be one of them.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Period dramas are notorious tough sells at the box office, though they do better on the small screen. While this film with color-blind casting could appeal to a lot of people who were turned on by Bridgerton, so it could do better than I expect.”
Box Office Results: $1.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] This film never really had a shot of making a lot of money. Bridgerton did well because it was streaming, which has a lower bar of entry as opposed to paying money specifically to watch this rather than for an entire service.

July 8, 2022

Thor: Love and Thunder

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. The Marvel films rarely score Oscar nominations and when they do, sequels aren’t usually the recipients. However, the number of special effects in this picture is large and that could get it into the Visual Effects race.”
Oscar Results: Now Uncertain. The film has a lot of competition for the Visual Effects nomination even though it should be one of the shortlisters.
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first Thor film premiered to $181 million. The second to $206. Then the third changed the tone of the series and the box office grew to $315. Since the new film seems to stick to that new style, it’s probable that it will approach or even surpass that third film’s numbers.”
Box Office Results: $343.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] While Disney/Pixar animated output hasn’t been doing well at the box office, the Marvel Cinematic Universe has and this is another solid example of the franchise’s staying power.

July 15, 2022

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. This is less costume-friendly than normal period dramas, but it is about a designer dress and films about fashion tend to do better lately than films set in long ago periods. Still, I doubt the film makes it to the end of the year with any buzz.”
Oscar Results: Still Uncertain. I could see this one sneaking into the Costume Design competition, I think there might just be too much competition for it.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Audiences haven’t been enamored with period dramas in some time. Downton Abbey is one of the exceptions and its sequel has so far put up very disappointing numbers. That suggests that this picture won’t have a lot of room to grow.”
Box Office Results: $10.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While it was probably ill-advised to release this in such a broad fashion, it did surprisingly well all things consider, just not enough to justify its release strategy.

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. So far, family films have been struggling to regain their vaunted reputations at the box office and so it’s unclear whether this film can counteract that. That said, it looks too dumb to have broad appeal, so a low tally is expecte.”
Box Office Results: $17.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Audiences have their standards and terrible animation and unappealing, overly familiar situations aren’t very popular.

Where the Crawdads Sing

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: No Uncertain. The film had a popular song release from its soundtrack, which could be in the competition for an Original Song nomination, but that category is filled with contenders, so it will be a tough fight for a film most people won’t remember seeing.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Clearly the source material is popular enough to make a movie from, but popular novels have struggled to make much at the box office in the last few years, though this is decidedly more adult than the teen-friendly efforts that usually get adapted. I don’t expect this one to go very far.”
Box Office Results: $90 M
Thoughts: [Success] A surprisingly solid performance for a film not many had thought could or would be a success. It still didn’t cross the magic $100 million threshold, but it did well enough.

July 22, 2022

Nope

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Peele’s first film was a huge Oscar player, but his second went nowhere. This seems a little more esoteric and humorous than his thriller/horror prior efforts, so it could benefit from being different.”
Oscar Results: Still Uncertain. While Keke Palmer may have picked up an award from the New York Film Critics Circle, that seems more like a one-off than an indicator of her strength. Of course, the category is light on contenders, so maybe.
Box Office Prospects: $175 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. This is Jordan Peele’s third directorial effort. Although it’s difficult to draw conclusions from only two prior features, the fact that both films made just over $175 million at the box office, that’s as good a place to start as any.”
Box Office Results: $123.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While it didn’t quite this the numbers of Jordan Peele’s prior two films, it still did quite well. Perhaps the sci-fi angle hurt its chances.

July 29, 2022

DC League of Super Pets

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Now Good. One of the better received animated films this year, it could very well make the cut, though DC struggles to get their efforts recognized.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Although non-Disney/Pixar films have a wide array of box office performance metrics, this has the added benefit of being a DC-themed film, which could benefit its bottom line. That said, the film looks a bit mediocre and that might depress its potential.”
Box Office Results: $93.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While not as outstanding a performance as other animated films this year, this result, just shy of $100 million, isn’t too bad. However, it is rather dismal for a DC film, albeit one not in the DCEU.

Vengeance

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. I’m not sure why this has initially been slated for a wide release. It feels like an indie player, so I suspect it will open in less than 1,000 theaters. If so, then this number might actually be a bit high. I suspect $8 million may be more likely, but surprises do happen.”
Box Office Results: $4.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Solid reviews helped bolster this film’s numbers on the indie circuit yielding a decent return.