Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

August 5, 2022

Bodies Bodies Bodies

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s been a long time since a horror film so effectively targeted teens, so this would could do quite well, but it has stiff competition.”
Box Office Results: $11.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Original horror films have always had a place at the box office and this Zoomer generational effort had the promise and the critical acclaim to do well, but it didn’t. By August theater attendance was improved enough to make several solid blockbusters, but apparently the gimmick wasn’t advertised well enough because it flopped.

Bullet Train

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $125 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Brad Pitt isn’t precisely a box office draw, but with the recent success of strange actioners like John Wick, it’s entirely possible this will be the biggest hit of August.”
Box Office Results: $103.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Brad Pitt might not be a huge box office draw, but his presence in this speeding train actioner might have goosed the film’s box office potential because although critics were largely positive on it, they weren’t effusive with their praise. That might also be while the film was only a modest success.

Easter Sunday

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Comedies haven’t gotten a lot of screen time so far this year and the ones that have released have been rather disappointing. This one has potential, though.”
Box Office Results: $13 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] A film called Easter Sunday releasing in August was probably a bad logistical choice. Although this comedy wouldn’t have been a good film to seek Christian audiences, an Easter-adjacent release probably would have helped.

August 12, 2022

Fall

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s not about sharks, but this horror-thriller has that kind of vibe. Thrillseekers might be attracted to the premise, but does it really have a lot of cross-generational appeal.”
Box Office Results: $7.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Unfortunately, acrophobia doesn’t have the benefit of broad appeal to mass audiences. Despite solid reviews, the film just couldn’t overcome the deadly dull trailer.

Mack & Rita

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Speaking of trying for cross-generational appeal. Nothing is more cross-generational than this body-swap comedy for millenials. I’m not quite sure this has the chance of being a big hit because millenials are likely to see it as a crass attempt to “reach” them while boomers who would normally give Keaton a chance might find this film a bit too childish.”
Box Office Results: $2.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Trying to make Diane keaton appeal to younger audiences in a Freaky Friday clone was a bad idea from the start and the trailer not being terribly funny didn’t help.

August 19, 2022

Beast

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Horror has a place at the theaters, especially filling seats, but this isn’t a slasher film or a supernatural horror and any other type of horror film struggles to find its voice and audience.”
Box Office Results: $31.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Although it did decently for a mid-range action thriller, the film still managed to come out of its theatrical run without much success.

August 26, 2022

Fear

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The trailer is forgettable and the premise doesn’t seem that exciting. It’s yet another thriller for August and with what’s come before, that might be a detriment to its chances.”
Box Office Results: $N/A M
Thoughts: Did not release. Rescheduled to 1.27.2023

August 31, 2022

Three Thousand Years of Longing

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. It is the latest Guillermo del Toro fantasy film, but early word was mixed. It could still be a contender, but the August release is worrisome.”
Oscar Results: Now None. The film’s poor critical response has largely doomed its Oscar chances.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. With a baseline from $60 million to $100 million, a lot of factors have to click for a Del Toro film to soar and while this one has potential, if the critics en masse hate it, then it could weigh down its chances.”
Box Office Results: $8.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Releasing on Labor Day weekend was a bad choice. The film received decent reviews and had a lot of potential, but that potential was wasted on a failed release strategy with mediocre advertising.