Film Independent’s Spirit Awards, which used to be scheduled the Saturday evening before the Oscars, is way ahead of this year’s ceremony, likely do to how few Oscar nominees are on the list and how little influence they are likely to have this year.

SPIRIT AWARDS

Best Feature

A Chiara
C’mon C’mon (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
The Lost Daughter (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Novice
Zola (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Not a single Oscar Best Picture nominee is cited here. The only one that has any nominations at all is The Lost Daughter, so that probably has the edge. Beyond that, I think critically acclaimed Zola could surprise or possibly even Mike Mills underperforming C’mon C’mon.
Peter J. Patrick: The Lost Daughter seems to be on a roll and should easily take this with C’mon C’mon its likeliest runner-up.
Tripp Burton: The Lost Daughter is the highest profile film here, but if voters are more adventurous they could go for C’mon C’mon or even Zola.
Thomas LaTourette: C’mon C’mon made little impact in theaters, so I will go with The Lost Daughter.

Best Director

Janicza Bravo – Zola (RU:Wesley)
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Lauren Hadaway – The Novice
Mike Mills – C’mon C’mon (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Ninja Thyberg – Pleasure

Wesley Lovell: The Academy didn’t nominate any of these folk, so I’m going with a similar breakdown as in Best Feature. Maggie Gyllenhaal to lead with Zanicza Bravo running behind and Mike Mills in third.
Peter J. Patrick: Maggie Gyllenhaal is as close to a sure thing as anyone here, with Mike Mills a longshot runner-up.
Tripp Burton: My guess if voters go with the biggest name here.
Thomas LaTourette: Mike Mills has been making films longer, but I think Maggie Gyllenhaal will win.

Best Male Lead

Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Frankie Faison – The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Michael Greyeyes – Wild Indian
Udo Kier – Swan Song
Simon Rex – Red Rocket (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Another category with no Oscar nominees. Two of these five were nominally in the hunt for Oscar, but neither were able to overcome a hefty slate at the Oscars. Collins Jr. got a lot of praise for his performance, but so did Simon Rex and Michael Greyeyes, either of whom could possibly top the Jockey star.
Peter J. Patrick: This seems to me to be a three-way race between Collins, Rex, and Udo Kier in about that order.
Tripp Burton: Simon Rex is the most talked about here, and should win easily, but if voters watch all five nominees Faison or Kier could surprise with a win.
Thomas LaTourette: Clifton Collins Jr. probably came close to an Oscar nomination, and it was in the most seen film among the nominees, so he is likely to win.

Best Female Lead

Isabelle Fuhrman – The Novice (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Brittany S. Hall – Test Pattern (RU:Tripp)
Patti Harrison – Together Together (RU:Peter)
Taylour Paige – Zola (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Kali Reis – Catch the Fair One (Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: It was quite the shock when Olivia Colman didn’t make this list with The Lost Daughter otherwise performing so well. With her out of the way, the field is wide open and the actor to get the most citations from critics in year-end consideration was Taylour Paige.
Peter J. Patrick: Not having seen any of these, I’m just guessing Taylor Paige in Zola with Patti Harrison in Together Together for runner-up.
Tripp Burton: Taylour Paige is the best chance for Zola to take home an award, but Brittany S. Hall is a close runner-up.
Thomas LaTourette: Kali Reis was said to be terrific in her first film, so I think she will win.

Best Supporting Male

Colman Domingo – Zola (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Meeko Gattuso – Queen of Glory
Troy Kotsur – CODA (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Will Patton – Sweet Thing (RU:Thomas)
Chaske Spencer – Wild Indian

Wesley Lovell: While the previous categories saw no Oscar nominees, this one has Troy Kotsur, who just won SAG. It would be surprising if he lost, but I could see Colman Domingo doing it.
Peter J. Patrick: CODA‘s Troy Kotsur is on a roll. If there’s an upset, it is most likely to be Zola‘s Colman Domingo.
Tripp Burton: Troy Kotsur, the only male Oscar nominee with a Spirit nomination, should easily win here.
Thomas LaTourette: Kotsur seems to be the frontrunner for the Oscar, so perhaps he will win here too.

Best Supporting Female

Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Amy Forsyth – The Novice
Ruth Negga – Passing (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Revika Reustle – Pleasure
Suzanna Son – Red Rocket

Wesley Lovell: This category almost had two Oscar nominees cited, but somehow Ruth Negga failed to score the Oscar nod. While my normal rule of thumb for the Spirit Awards is to pick the Oscar nominee of the bunch (Jessie Buckley), I could imagine Negga getting a surge of support and taking the lead from runner-up Buckley.
Peter J. Patrick: I’d say Ruth Negga for her amazing performance in Passing, but it could just as easily be Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter.
Tripp Burton: Usually I go with the Oscar nominee in these categories, but Ruth Negga is so praised that voters probably won’t ignore her here.
Thomas LaTourette: Both Negga and Buckley are supposed to be fantastic, and I will give the edge to the Oscar nominee.

Best Screenplay

C’mon C’mon (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
The Lost Daughter (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Swan Song
Together Together
Zola

Wesley Lovell: The Lost Daughter was Oscar nominated and even managed to win at the USC Scripter Awards, which could be good tidings. Gyllenhaal has the same competition as in feature and director with Zola and C’mon C’mon contending.
Peter J. Patrick: Maggie Gyllenhaal is also likely to pick up this one for The Lost Daughter with C’mon C’mon the runner-up.
Tripp Burton: Like Film and Director, this boils down to Gyllenhaal and Mills, and I think Maggie goes 3-for-3.
Thomas LaTourette: Once again I will go with The Lost Daughter over C’mon C’mon.

Best Editing

A Chiara
The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain
The Novice (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Nowhere Inn
Zola (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: No Oscar nominees, so I give the edge to Best Feature nominee Zola with The Novice a possible spoiler.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m guessing Zola with The Novice its closest runner-up.
Tripp Burton: Zola and The Novice are both immensely impressive here, and either one could win.
Thomas LaTourette: With cuts for the rowing scenes, The Novice may have the flashiest editing.

Best Cinematography

A Chiara
Blue Bayou
The Humans (RU:Thomas)
Passing (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Zola (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Passing got the most acclaim for his cinematography, so I doubt that it loses here to any of the other non-Oscar nominees. Zola could surprise, though.
Peter J. Patrick: Passing over Zola, barely.
Tripp Burton: The black-and-white Passing, which many were sad was left off of Oscar’s list, should easily win here.
Thomas LaTourette: I heard that Passing had beautiful cinematography, so I hope it wins.

Best Documentary

Ascension
Flee (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
In The Same Breath
Procession
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The most Oscar-filled this year featuring three of the Academy’s five nominees for Best Documentary Feature. As at the Oscars, the race comes down to Flee versus Summer of Soul with the latter likely prevailing.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m going to go against probability and give this one to Flee over Summer of Soul.
Tripp Burton: This category has been Summer of Soul vs. Flee all season, but the crowd-pleaser will probably win again here.
Thomas LaTourette: Summer of Soul has been the darling of the critics, so I imagine it will win here, though Flee would be an unexpected and deserving winner.

John Cassavetes Award

Cryptozoo
Jockey (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Shiva Baby (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Sweet Thing
This Is Not a War Story

Wesley Lovell: While Jockey has more overall nominations, Shiva Baby was highly regarded and I can imagine this group rewarding the comedy over the drama.
Peter J. Patrick: Jockey has the highest profile with Shiva Baby the second highest so that’s the way I expect it will go.
Tripp Burton: Shiva Baby has been a minor hit all year, and this could be the biggest prize it takes home.
Thomas LaTourette: Jockey and Shiva Baby are the ones I have heard the most about, so I will assume one of them will win.

Best International Film

Compartment No. 6
Drive My Car (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Parallel Mothers (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Pebbles
Petite Maman (RU:Tripp)
Prayers for the Stolen

Wesley Lovell: While some of these made the Oscar shortlist, only Drive My Car was nominated for Best International Feature at the Oscars. Drive My Car has this one sealed up, but watch out for indie-popular Pedro Almodovar’s Parallel Mothers, which picked up several Oscar nominations as well.
Peter J. Patrick: What else but Drive My Car? Parallel Mothers is a distant runner-up.
Tripp Burton: Why doubt any wins for Drive My Car at this point?
Thomas LaTourette: Drive My Car seems to be winning everything is sight, though I would prefer Parallel Mothers to win.

Best First Feature

Holler (Tripp, Thomas)
Queen of Glory
7 Days (Wesley)
Test Pattern (Peter, RU:Tripp)
Wild Indian (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: It’s probably a crap shoot to select one of these titles, so my selections are entirely a guess.
Peter J. Patrick: Another guess with Test Pattern taking it over Wild Indian.
Tripp Burton: This could go many different ways, but I guess Holler over Test Pattern. Wild Indian is a strong contender, too.
Thomas LaTourette: This one is purely a guess.

Best First Screenplay

Cicada
Mass (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Pig (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Test Pattern
Wild Indian

Wesley Lovell: A few more recognizable titles on this list. None of them are Oscar nominees, though Mass and Pig probably came closest. While Mass got a lot of attention, Pig got more traction. Neither were huge nominees with this group, so it could go either way with Test Pattern or Wild Indian as possible spoilers.
Peter J. Patrick: Mass is a brilliantly written and performed chamber piece and should easily win. If there’s an upset, then the well-regarded Pig should prevail.
Tripp Burton: There are a lot of possibilities here, but the two most widely seen — Pig and Mass — are duking it out for the win.
Thomas LaTourette: Mass was a talky, but involving movie and could easily win.