The carry over between SAG and Oscar is surprisingly minimal this year. Sure, Best Actor was identical, but the other categories saw two or three people each swapped out. Will that have an impact on Oscar voting? Quite possibly. It all depends on who wins.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

Best Cast

Belfast (Peter, Tripp)
CODA (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Don’t Look Up (Wesley, Thomas)
House of Gucci (RU:Wesley)
King Richard

Wesley Lovell: While SAG has a history of recognizing incredibly large casts, they’ve selected small ensemble pieces in the past. That said, Don’t Look Up has lots of big names and significantly more cast members than any of the others, so I’ll give it the edge. Four of these are Best Picture nominees, but surprisingly, I think the stacked cast of House of Gucci could be the spoiler in case of a Don’t Look Up loss.
Peter J. Patrick: Belfast has the strongest ensemble, but the masses seem to love CODA so there’s really no telling which way they will go.
Tripp Burton: This is an odd category, and with a lot of the big players of the season not here, this could go in many different ways. A Will Smith win could help carry King Richard to a win here, but I think it is down between the size of Hollywood-favorite Don’t Look Up and the charisma and charm of the underdog CODA. I flipped a coin.
Thomas LaTourette: This is an interesting category, and I am not sure how it will play out. Belfast and CODA had really strong casts, and that was something I came out of the films thinking at the time. I think the eventual winner will be one of them. Though Don’t Look Up boasts a Who’s Who of major Hollywood talent and that could take it to the winner’s circle. The Academy showed little love to House of Gucci, so I think it is out of the running unless there is a backlash of support for the film because of that snub. Likewise, I expect King Richard to not be a factor. My guess is that it will go to Belfast because it is a more known cast but would not be surprised if it goes to CODA.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Will Smith – King Richard (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Wesley Lovell: Oftentimes, big names win out over great performances. That could bolster Will Smith to a victory. I could still see enough going for the best performance and picking Cumberbatch for the award.
Peter J. Patrick: If they go for personality, then Will Smith will win, but if they go for performance, it will be Benedict Cumberbatch with Andrew Garfield his strongest competition.
Tripp Burton: The SAGs always tend to lean a little more towards the movie stars, and there is no bigger movie star than Will Smith. Andrew Garfield is hot, though, and if his film resonates with actors a little more he could surprise here.
Thomas LaTourette: Will Smith has been the Oscar frontrunner for a long time, though he has always felt like a weak one. I still think he will win here but could see it going a couple of different ways. Benedict Cumberbatch has many more precursor awards, but he may have to wait for another time to finally win. Denzel Washington and Javier Bardem will have to be content with their nominations. The one person I could see besting Smith is Andrew Garfield who showed a very different side of himself singing and dancing in tick, tick…BOOM! Will Smith probably wins but either Garfield or Cumberbatch could surprise.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Peter, RU:Tripp)
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (RU:Peter)
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: With two Oscar nominees missing, we are left with three to choose from. While they love Olivia Colman and Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman is the bigger name and with so many television people in the membership, I could see her portrayal of TV icon Lucille Ball impressing just enough people to triumph. Strangely, I could also see Lady Gaga sneak in as a consolation for her Oscar miss.
Peter J. Patrick: Both Jessica Chastain and Olivia Colman have won SAG ensemble awards but neither has won for individual performance. I think one or the other will win here over popular favorites Nicole Kidman and Lady Gaga, but I could be wrong.
Tripp Burton: Can the surprise of Lady Gaga missing an Oscar nomination propel her here over frontrunner Nicole Kidman?
Thomas LaTourette: I really have no idea how this one will go. With Kristen Stewart not nominated, there is not a strong frontrunner. Either Jennifer Hudson or especially Lady Gaga might win as the guild tried to make up for their Oscar snubs. Or Olivia Colman might win for a film that was little seen and somewhat divisive. I think it will come down to either Jessica Chastain for her portrayal of Tammy Faye Bakker or Nicole Kidman for her take on Lucille Ball. Chastain did a fine job not making a caricature of the part and convincingly aged over several decades, but I think they may go for Kidman. She only has one precursor so far, but perhaps the Golden Globe still means something. It will be interesting to see who wins, and perhaps we will have an idea of who will eventually win the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor

Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza
Troy Kotsur – CODA (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Jared Leto – House of Gucci (RU:Wesley)
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: There are some big names here, but I can see them going with one of the year’s most acclaimed supporting performances. Kodi Smit-McPhee could be topped by Jared Leto, though.
Peter J. Patrick: Kodi Smit-McPhee should continue his winning streak with major precursors here with Troy Kotsur the leading spoiler.
Tripp Burton: There are only two Oscar nominees in this category, and Troy Kotsur is getting a really big push from Amazon. Still, Kodi Smit-McPhee has led all season and I don’t see him slowing down anytime soon.
Thomas LaTourette: This has turned into a two-man race between Troy Kotsur and Kodi Smit-McPhee. I do not think any of the others will stand a chance. Kotsur might be the sentimental choice, but I am guessing that Smit-McPhee will win.

Best Supporting Actress

Caitriona Balfe – Belfast
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Ruth Negga – Passing (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Arian DeBose is the Oscar frontrunner while Ruth Negga has a lot of support and probably a lot of anger behind her Oscar exclusion. This group was probably better situated before the Oscar nominations than after so we could get a better feeling of what’s best and not what was Oscar-robbed.
Peter J. Patrick: Oscar nominee Kirsten Dunst and non-nominee Ruth Negga gave the strongest performances in this category, but Ariana DeBose has been winning a preponderance of precursors to date, so she could be a spoiler here. Still, I’m sticking with Dunst and Negga.
Tripp Burton: Again, there are only two Oscar nominees here. Ariana DeBose is the breakthrough star of the season and your winner here most likely.
Thomas LaTourette: If anyone but Ariana DeBose wins for her fiery portrayal of Anita in the remake of West Side Story it will be a huge surprise. The part proved a winner for Rita Moreno 50 years ago and it should easily repeat for DeBose. Her main competition comes from Kirsten Dunst who did pick up an Oscar nomination but not a BAFTA one. This feels like the one award that is most set and DeBose should easily win.

Best Stunt Ensemble

Black Widow
Dune (Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Since the Oscars don’t have a category like this, we don’t have anything to guide our way except the sheer volume of action. All of these have that, so I could see any of them triumphing, but Shang-Chi probably has the most impressive action sequences and I could see that being enough for most voters.
Peter J. Patrick: This could go to any of the nominees, but I’m thinking No Time to Die with Dune its closest rival.
Tripp Burton: I never know how this will go. Dune is the powerhouse here.
Thomas LaTourette: No Time to Die had the flashier stunts, so I think it will prevail over Dune. None of the other films stands a chance.