Although they don’t represent all critics, they have nonetheless positioned themselves as the bellwether of critics groups. Their penchant for making their Oscar predictions their votes for winners has made many frustrated with their nom-de-plume. That said, in a fluctuating Oscar season like the one we’ve had, they might provide the best insight into what a larger group might be thinking and emerging trends might give us some indication how things will be going on Oscar night.

CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS

Best Picture

Belfast (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
CODA (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
tick, tick…BOOM!
West Side Story

Wesley Lovell: Do they go for the most honored film of the year, The Power of the Dog or try for Oscar prognostication/influence. If they want to jump on a bandwagon, they go with CODA or King Richard. It’s hard to say with this group. Sometimes, they are very cliquish and sometimes they are very targeted.
Peter J. Patrick: I’ll stick with early predictions here and say The Power of the Dog with Belfast its closest rival.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: It seems likely that The Power of the Dog will continue its winning ways here.

Best Animated Feature

Encanto (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Flee (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Raya and the Last Dragon

Wesley Lovell: Encanto has been leading all season and although the critical consensus leads towards The Mitchells vs. the Machines, it released far too early in the year to build momentum now. Flee, on the other hand, could well be the big surprise of the night, especially if they want to polish up their bona fides.
Peter J. Patrick: Another race between Encanto and Flee. I think Disney will prevail here.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: I think Encanto will win unless they go for the more serious Flee.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve – Dune (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Jane Campion is leading and I doubt she’ll lose that lead now.
Peter J. Patrick: Campion will be an easy winner here with Branagh a very long shot runner-up.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Jane Campion will assuredly win.

Best Actor

Nicolas Cage – Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Peter Dinklage – Cyrano
Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Will Smith – King Richard (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Wesley Lovell: If they are going to jump on a bandwagon, this will be the category they do it in. A victory for Benedict Cumberbatch would be a bump in the road towards the coronation of Will Smith. Smith has the best chance of coming out on top here even if he’s not leading at the Oscars.
Peter J. Patrick: This is a three-way race between Cumberbatch, Garfield, and Smith but I’m sticking with Cumberbatch and Garfield as predicted winner and runner-up.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Will Smith will easily win this as well.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (RU:Peter)
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (RU:Tripp)
Kristen Stewart – Spencer (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: SAG pushed Jessica Chastain into the lead. Critics Choice could keep her there or drive the narrative in a different direction. Kristen Stewart is the most likely to benefit from that as she has so far been the critics’ choice (with many other groups). We’ll see how they play this one.
Peter J. Patrick: Close, but I expect Chastain to win here with Colman her likeliest runner-up.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: If this goes like the SAG did, Jessica Chastain should win, which should cement her as the front runner for the Oscar. If it goes to anyone else, then the race is back up in the air.

Best Supporting Actor

Jamie Dornan – Belfast
Ciaran Hinds – Belfast
Troy Kotsur – CODA (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Jared Leto – House of Gucci
J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Troy Kotsur now has the momentum and many CCA members will want to keep that momentum going. Many of them may also want to reverse that momentum and put Kodi Smit-McPhee back in the driver’s seat. We will have to see.
Peter J. Patrick: Smit-McPhee should prevail, but rising support for Kotsur might prove impossible to overcome.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Following SAG, Troy Kotsur has the momentum and should win.

Best Supporting Actress

Caitriona Balfe – Belfast
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Ann Dowd – Mass
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Rita Moreno – West Side Story

Wesley Lovell: If they go for anyone other than Ariana DeBose, it will be surprising. What a welcome surprise it would be if Kirsten Dunst got this prize. That might shake things up a bit. A victory for Aunjanue Ellis might as well, especially if King Richard is undergoing a well-timed surge in popularity.
Peter J. Patrick: Dunst has to win something before Oscar night, but DeBose may be impossible to beat.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Ariana DeBose should easily win this.

Best Original Screenplay

Being the Ricardos
Belfast (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: I can’t help but see this as a race between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. Both have done well in this category with the precursors, but I cannot escape the feeling that King Richard is re-peaking at the right (or maybe that’s the wrong) time.
Peter J. Patrick: I don’t know what they’re going to do here but Belfast would be my choice. Licorice Pizza, though, is more popular with younger voters.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Licorice Pizza picks this up.

Best Adapted Screenplay

CODA (Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Dune
The Lost Daughter (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Power of the Dog (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
West Side Story

Wesley Lovell: There are rumors that The Power of the Dog‘s season-long dominance is fading. That could be a good sign for CODA and The Lost Daughter. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s film triumphed over Jane Campion’s at the USC Scripters, but CODA‘s trend upwards after the Hollywood Critics Association awards could point towards that film coming from behind. Then again. It’s possible no one knows which way to go and will split the vote unless the CCA puts them on a different path in this category.
Peter J. Patrick: Looks like a battle between two female writer-directors with Campion pulling off another win.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: The Power of the Dog seems the likely winner, but if it goes to The Lost Daughter, then that will be the probable Oscar winner as well.

Best Score

Don’t Look Up
Dune (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Spencer

Wesley Lovell: Once again, it’s a battle between The Power of the Dog and Dune. Both scores would be worthy winners, but I think Dune ekes out a win over The Power of the Dog.
Peter J. Patrick: The Power of the Dog over Dune in a tight race.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Dune should win this, with The Power of the Dog being its main competition.

Best Song

Be Alive – King Richard (RU:Wesley)
Dos Oruguitas – Encanto (Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Guns Go Bang – The Harder They Fall
Just Look Up – Don’t Look Up
No Time to Die – No Time to Die (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: They aren’t the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, but that impression could turn on a dime with this category’s victor. Beyoncé is a bigger name than Billie Eilish (in some circles) and I could see them giving her the award. Then again, none of these songs are great, so “No Time to Die” could emerge from a weak line-up. Either that or Lin-Manuel Miranda picks up the award on his way to Oscar.
Peter J. Patrick: The song from Encanto will likely prevail over the title song from No Time to Die.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: No Time to Die wins and cements its place as the one to beat at the Oscars. If something else wins, then it may make for an interesting Oscar race.

Best Editing

Belfast (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Dune (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog (Peter)
West Side Story (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Dune seems like the most likely choice on this list with West Side Story trailing.
Peter J. Patrick: The Power of the Dog over Belfast once again.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Dune is the likely winner.

Best Cinematography

Belfast
Dune (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Wesley Lovell: Dune vs. The Power of the Dog once again with Dune consistently leading. This group of critics might just be willing to put Dog ahead, though.
Peter J. Patrick: The Power of the Dog over Dune for this one.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Dune is likely to win here too.

Best Production Design

Belfast
Dune (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The French Dispatch (RU:Peter)
Nightmare Alley (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
West Side Story

Wesley Lovell: Nightmare Alley has the momentum, but Dune could interrupt it.
Peter J. Patrick: Nightmare Alley over The French Dispatch for this one.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: It probably is between Dune and Nightmare Alley, and I will give the edge to Nightmare Alley.

Best Costume Design

Cruella (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Dune (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley (RU:Peter)
West Side Story (Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Cruella also seems to be on a roll and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them give it out here. This category isn’t frequently given by other critics groups, so their selection could be interesting.
Peter J. Patrick: Probably Cruella. Runner-up is tougher but if anything can pull an upset here, I’d say it was Nightmare Alley.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Cruella should win and that will make it the Oscar frontrunner.

Best Hair & Makeup

Cruella (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
House of Gucci (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Nightmare Alley

Wesley Lovell: There’s a theme with these awards and it’s the battle of the Oscar nominees. They like to be seen as forecasters, so watch for what they choose and you might have an inkling of the direction they are leaning. The Eyes of Tammy Faye likely leads, but I could see any of the other Oscar nominees winning as well.
Peter J. Patrick: I think The Eyes of Tammy Faye is a likely winner over House of Gucci here.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: The Eyes of Tammy Faye should take this.

Best Visual Effects

Dune (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Matrix Resurrections (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: We don’t have to worry about picking a runner-up because there’s not much likelihood of a non-Dune victory.
Peter J. Patrick: Dune will win this in a landslide.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: It would be surprising if Dune didn’t win this.

Best Foreign Language Film

Drive My Car (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Flee (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Hand of God
A Hero
The Worst Person in the World (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Drive My Car doesn’t have a lot of competition from this slate.
Peter J. Patrick: Drive My Car will win this handily.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Drive My Car has been unstoppable and will win this.

Best Comedy

Barb & Star Go to Vista Del Mar (Tripp)
Don’t Look Up (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Free Guy
The French Dispatch (RU:Thomas)
Licorice Pizza (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Licorice Pizza and Don’t Look Up are the only Best Picture nominees in this lineup and with no corresponding Oscar category, their selection could actually be interesting.
Peter J. Patrick: Probably Licorice Pizza over Don’t Look Up but I couldn’t tell you why.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Licorice Pizza feels like the likely winner, if not then The French Dispatch.

Best Acting Ensemble

Belfast (Peter, Thomas)
Don’t Look Up (Wesley)
The Harder They Fall
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog (Tripp)
West Side Story (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This is another category with no Oscar equivalent. Don’t Look Up has a large cast and I imagine this group is more attuned to that fact than others might. West Side Story could win, but I have a gut feeling that The Harder They Fall could surprise.
Peter J. Patrick: Belfast for its tight ensemble should win, but West Side Story with its refreshing cast of newcomers could prove an upset winner.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Belfast, West Side Story, and Don’t Look Up all had very strong ensembles, so I would think the winner would come out of there, and Belfast seems the most likely.

Best Young Actor / Actress

Jude Hill – Belfast (Peter)
Cooper Hoffman – Licorice Pizza (RU:Tripp)
Emilia Jones – CODA (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Woody Norman – C’mon C’mon (RU:Peter)
Saniyya Sidney – King Richard (RU:Wesley)
Rachel Zegler – West Side Story (Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Emilia Jones would seem to be the kind of actor this group would recognize, but Jude Hill and Saniyya Sidney are as well. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Peter J. Patrick: It could go to any of them, but I’ll stick with early favorites Hill and Norman.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Rachel Zegler was absolutely stunning in her screen debut as Maria in West Side Story and she totally deserves to win.