With the frontrunner for Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars ineligible for this award, we’ll be left with the winner of the Original Screenplay prize to tell us if there’s going to be a clean sweep or a knock-down, drag-out fight between The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman.

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah (Peter)
Palm Springs
Promising Young Woman (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This is the race of the night. Will Aaron Sorkin win out over Emerald Fennell. To this point, Promising Young Woman was taken 20 awards for its screenplay, Minari has 10, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 has, ironically, 7. The vast majority of these prizes came from critics groups, but so far the two televised awards shows split 50/50 with the Critics Choice going with Promising Young Woman and the Golden Globes choosing Chicago 7. Of course, they have been known to lap up everything Sorkin, so that may be the outlier. Still, for any script to gain a better foothold in this season, it needs this award and then the BAFTA. Since Minari isn’t nominated at BAFTA, it could easily remain the spoiler without this prize.
Peter J. Patrick: This is a tough category with only Palm Springs seemingly out of it. I think the most recent releases, Judas and the Black Messiah and Promising Young Woman, could have the edge over The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Sound of Metal, but it could really be any one of the four.
Tripp Burton: Aaron Sorkin is an awards favorite, but Promising Young Woman is one of the most “original” scripts of the year, and seems like something that the writers will go towards. Those two scripts will duke it out for the rest of the season, though.
Thomas LaTourette: This may give us a reasonable idea of what Oscar night might bring. Both Trial and Promising are well written and the award could easily go to either. And the others are all well respected too. Even though Aaron Sorkin is the more noted writer, I will give the edge to Promising Young Woman to win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (RU:Wesley)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
News of the World
One Night in Miami (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The White Tiger (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Nomadland is ineligible, which makes this race of muted importance, pitting three Oscar nominees against the films Nomadland and The Father replaced at the Oscars, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and News of the World. Honestly, the prize could go any direction. I lean towards One Night in MiamiBorat.
Peter J. Patrick: This is a four-film contender as well with only the Borat sequel seemingly out of it. I’m going to go with One Night in Miami over Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which is basically the original stage play with little to no changes.
Tripp Burton: Without Nomadland in here, this category feels wide open. Kemp Powers is one of the hot names of the season, and this could be a great opportunity to recognize him.
Thomas LaTourette: With neither Nomadland or The Father nominated here, the two Oscar frontrunners are not in play and this is much harder to predict. I would think then that the Oscar-nominated One Night is Miami will win with perhaps Ma Rainey being its closest competition.

Documentary Screenplay

All In: The Fight for Democracy (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
The Dissident (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Herb Alpert Is…
Red Penguins
Totally Under Control (Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: This is entirely a guess. All In The Fight for Democracy is the most honored of this slate of films, but since they didn’t nominate a single title that was nominated for the Documentary Feature Oscar, it’s anyone’s guess.
Peter J. Patrick: This seems to be between the voting suppression documentary, All In: A Fight for Democracy with Stacey Abrams and The Dissident about the assassination of Saudi activist Jamal Khashoggi and the Saudi crown prince’s involvement in it.
Tripp Burton: Totally Under Control is a huge undertaking that takes a complex story and makes it feel very understandable.
Thomas LaTourette: All In is the most known of these five, so I will predict it to win. If not, then the two most topical ones would seem likely to upset with The Dissident perhaps just outdoing Totally Under Control.