The final test of Nomadland‘s ability to sweep into the Oscars is the stuffy, success-craving Producers Guild of America. If it can win here, it can win the Oscar. We’ll just have to see how things go. (Editor’s Note: Updated to include Tripp’s predictions & commentary. 12:06pm Central, 3/23/21)

PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Picture

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari (Peter)
Nomadland (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The true test of a film’s Best Picture Oscar potential is if it can carry the Producers Guild of America. Only four times in the past ten years has a film won Best Picture without winning the PGA first. One of those times was a tie that saw the eventual Best Picture winner (12 Years a Slave) tie with the future Best Directing winner (Gravity). A 70% match ratio is pretty good. Though imperfect, you are better served to have this award in your corner than not and the PGA winners who didn’t carry on to Oscar are typically popular films that that either didn’t have much of a shot at winning the Oscar (The Big Short for example), large technical achievements (1917, Gravity), or were the Oscar frontrunner that went down in shocking defeat (La La Land). Really, few of these sound like the surprise Oscar winner types, so Nomadland has a solid chance, though crowd-pleaser Minari, technical marvel Mank, large ensemble The Trial of the Chicago 7, or late-breaking success Judas and the Black Messiah could win. Even Promising Young Woman has a chance due to its inventiveness. Small films that win Best Picture often miss this award, so if Nomadland doesn’t win, don’t discount its chances.
Peter J. Patrick: The smart pick would be Nomadland, which has dominated the year-end critics’ awards, but with no box office blockbuster to vote for, I think the producers will put on their altruistic hats and vote for either the topical film about the struggles of a family of Korean immigrants trying to make a go of it in 1980s Arkansas (Minari) or the dark comedy about the #MeToo Movement that walks a fine line between horror and hilarity (Promising Young Woman).
Tripp Burton: If Nomadland falters anywhere, this would be an obvious place. The PGA tends to go for big, slicker filmmaking than smaller, more independent films — think The Big Short over Spotlight. That might favor the Sorkin film here.
Thomas LaTourette: Nomadland has been sweeping up best picture awards, and I think it will here too. This is not a year that the guild can look at box office success, so I think they will go with the probable Oscar winner. The PGA does not have a perfect record of matching Oscar winners, but it is pretty good. If it does not win, that probably will not be affecting its chances of winning the Oscar too much, but it is difficult to figure out what they might go for instead. Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are more prestigious nominees. Promising Young Woman one of the more daring ones. Perhaps Trial would be the likely one to rise to the top if there is an upset.

Best Animated Feature

The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Wolfwalkers (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I see little reason for this group to buck the trend giving Soul the best shot of winning with Wolfwalkers chasing close behind.
Peter J. Patrick: I would be shocked if they went with something other than Soul, the odds-on favorite here. If there is an upset, I would think it would be the Irish charmer, Wolfwalkers.
Tripp Burton: Like most awards this year, Soul will win, with Wolfwalkers a distant second.
Thomas LaTourette: Soul should easily win this as it marches towards its inevitable and deserved Oscar win.

Best Documentary (Previously Announced)

David Attenborough: A Life on Our Planet (RU:Tripp)
Dick Johnson Is Dead (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
My Octopus Teacher (Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Softie
A Thousand Cuts (RU:Peter)
Time (RU:Thomas)
The Truffle Hunters

Wesley Lovell: This is a very tough category. Only two of this year’s Oscar nominees are in the batch and the PGA has a tendency to whiff in this category more than any other, so the currently precursor leader has a solid chance, but I wouldn’t discount either of the two Oscar nominees, My Octopus Teacher or Time.
Peter J. Patrick: I expect this to go to either the end of life documentary (Dick Johnson Is Dead) or the exposé of Philippines President Duterte’s misinformation campaign (A Thousand Cuts).
Tripp Burton: The size and scope of Dick Johnson Is Dead should be a heavy favorite for the PGA.
Thomas LaTourette: I will go with the Oscar nominee My Octopus Teacher to win. It had a fascinating storyline and the underwater photography was stunning and unusual. If it does not win then perhaps either The Truffle Hunters or Time will take it.