There are reasons this organization has an outsized influence on the Oscars, but those reasons are complex and could easily be considered sniping, so I’ll just leave it at this: The former Broadcast Film Critics Association has a good track record. And as one of only three televised awards shows leading up to the Oscars, they need to be seen as accurate. Here are our predictions for this year’s awards and our choices seemed to sync up quite a bit.

Wesley Lovell: I tend to be more of a pessimist when it comes to my predictions for this organization. I consider both what has dominated the critics awards thus far and what might strike Oscar voters’ fancies and try to hew close to that when putting together my predictions, especially for this organization.
Peter J. Patrick: This group does its best to predict the Oscars, so don’t expect too many surprises. Awards will go to recipients most often mentioned by bloggers as being this year’s likeliest Oscar winners.
Tripp Burton: I don’t really put a lot of stock in the Critics Choice Awards — they seem to want to predict more than reward — and so this is more representative of where the race is right now than anything.

CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS

Best Picture

Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
News of the World
Nomadland (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Thomas, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: There’s little reason to believe that Nomadland won’t continue to dominate this season. If it can win the more niche-oriented Golden Globe Award, it can certainly win with an organization that has numerous members spread throughout other organizations that have already made this choice.
Tripp Burton: I’m still not convinced that Nomadland is going the distance, but Boyhood won here a few years ago, and it is still the critical darling that hasn’t been unseated yet.
Thomas LaTourette: I do not necessarily know how the Critics Choice awards tend to go, but I am thinking that the more popular Chicago 7 might win over Nomadland

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chang – Minari (RU:Peter)
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
David Fincher – Mank
Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
Regina King – One Night in Miami (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (RU:Thomas)
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The chance to foreshadow Oscar history is too big to pass up. Chloé Zhao seems like the kind of winner who picks up the Oscar even if her film doesn’t capture the big prize. Of course, Regina King could put a stop to that, but until we see what the DGA says, we won’t know how high her star can rise.
Tripp Burton: Zhao is steamrolling this category, and the only thing that could stop her here is awards favorite Regina King.
Thomas LaTourette: I have a feeling that Zhao has this award tied up.

Best Actor

Ben Affleck – The Way Back
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Tom Hanks – News of the World
Anthony Hopkins – The Father (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman – Mank
Steven Yeun – Minari

Wesley Lovell: Boseman won at the Globes, even though they had the opportunity to pick Anthony Hopkins, whom they have yet to recognize, so he’s probably going to cruise through the televised awards.
Tripp Burton: I don’t see anything getting in the way of another Boseman win.
Thomas LaTourette: Boseman seems to be cementing first place in this race.

Best Actress

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand – Nomadland (RU:Wesley)
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie

Wesley Lovell: Unlike the persnickety Globe voters who may have had ulterior motives in selecting Andra Day in the critically lambasted The United States vs. Billie Holiday, but this group isn’t likely to stay that course. Yet, they did just finish voting after that surprise win, so who knows. That said, I suspect that Mulligan will end up winning here as many had predicted she would at the Globes and then it will be up to the Screen Actors Guild to rubber stamp that choice or not.
Tripp Burton: The Globe surprises in this category have muddled things up, but I still see Mulligan as our favorite here.
Thomas LaTourette: I still think Mulligan stands a good chance here, though the race may be moving towards Day after her GG win.

Best Supporting Actor

Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (RU:Tripp)
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Bill Murray – On the Rocks
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Wesley Lovell: Until Judas came out, this was Leslie Odom Jr.’s to lose, but Kaluuya’s bombastic performance will be a no-brainer for Oscar voters and thus also these voters.
Tripp Burton: Daniel Kaluuya is proving to be a powerhouse in this category, but I wouldn’t put it past this group to give Boseman two prizes.
Thomas LaTourette: It feels like Kaluuya is becoming the front runner in this race.

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (RU:Thomas)
Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Olivia Colman – The Father
Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (Peter, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Although Maria Bakalova has clearly been the critics’ choice so far this season, I suspect that the CCA might just want to re-write the narrative. Sure, they would crow about a Glenn Close selection, especially after the Globe upset to Jodie Foster, who isn’t nominated here, but they might just try to elevate either Seyfried or Young to that top spot. Then again, a Burstyn win wouldn’t be a surprise either.
Tripp Burton: Without the Globe winner here, the star power of Glenn Close should prove irresistible. What I really think will happen, though, is that there will be a tie between Close and Seyfried.
Thomas LaTourette: I really have no idea who will win this race, though I will put Close at the top, but could easily see it going to someone else.

Best Original Screenplay

Mank
Minari (RU:Tripp)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Promising Young Woman (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Although Aaron Sorkin won this at the Globes, the love those voters have for him is unsurpassed, but critics are a different breed. While I think he could still win, I believe the edge is to the more broadly respected Promising Young Woman, though a surprise win by either Mank or Minari wouldn’t actually be that surprising.
Tripp Burton: This might be the best chance to honor Minari all night, but I think the more likely winner is Emerald Fennell for the most wildly inventive script in the bunch.
Thomas LaTourette: As much as I would like to see Promising Young Woman win, I think it will go to Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Father (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
First Cow
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Nomadland (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
One Night in Miami (Tripp, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: If they are going to go for Nomadland for Best Picture, it has to win here. If it doesn’t, there might be an incoming upset.
Tripp Burton: This is a category that has befuddled me all year, and I don’t know how it will turn out. My guess is this is their chance to honor One Night in Miami.
Thomas LaTourette: Nomadland appears the likely winner.

Best Score

Mank (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
The Midnight Sky
Minari (RU:Peter)
News of the World (RU:Thomas)
Soul (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Tenet

Wesley Lovell: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are on a course likely to take them to the Oscars, but being up for two films makes it difficult. That said, since Soul is narratively about music versus Mank, which isn’t, I suspect they’ll go for the Pixar effort.
Tripp Burton: It’s the battle of the Reznor/Ross scores, and I’ll give the edge to the cartoon.
Thomas LaTourette: Soul will likely repeat its GG win here.

Best Song

Everybody Cries – The Outpost
Fight for You – Judas and the Black Messiah
Husavik – Eurovision Song Contest: The Fire Saga
Io Si (Seen) – The Life Ahead (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Speak Now – One Night in Miami (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Tigress & Tweed – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Wesley Lovell: “Io Si” might have won at the Globes, but it faces an uphill battle elsewhere. Sure, Diane Warren is the queen of the Original Song category, but she has never won an Oscar. Sure, an Italian-language effort might help her out, “Speak Now” is quite possibly the most significant choice going around this year. Yes, the Globes went with Warren, but that seemed more fluky than determined.
Tripp Burton: I think this is Leslie Odom Jr.’s best shot at a trophy, but won’t count out the recent Globe victory for Diane Warren.
Thomas LaTourette: will go with “Speak Now,” but could imagine it going to any of the nominees.

Best Editing

The Father
Mank (RU:Tripp)
Nomadland (Wesley, Peter)
Sound of Metal
Tenet (RU:Thomas)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: This is one of the few places I could easily see Nomadland losing to something more impressive. The Trial of the Chicago 7 might just be their choice.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea. This is a guess, as I can see any of these winning
Thomas LaTourette: Tenet or Sound of Metal seem the more difficult to edit, though I think Chicago 7 will likely win for being the more prestigious movie.

Best Cinematography

Da 5 Bloods
First Cow
Mank (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Minari (RU:Peter)
News of the World (RU:Thomas)
Nomadland (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp)
Tenet

Wesley Lovell: Nomadland has dominated four categories this Oscar season. This is the fourth, so a victory otherwise would be a bit surprising.
Tripp Burton: The critic’s darling Nomadland vs. the black-and-white Mank. Either is possible.
Thomas LaTourette: I think the lush black-and-white work of Mank may win, though the beautiful News of the World or the difficult to film Tenet might win. One can also not count out Nomadland.

Best Production Design

Emma.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Peter)
Mank (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
News of the World (RU:Wesley)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Tenet

Wesley Lovell: The eventual Oscar winner looks to be Mank, which almost featured its set design as an individual character, recreating numerous elements of Hollywood’s Golden Era.
Tripp Burton: I don’t know how this will turn out, but I feel like Mank could do very well with the techs here.
Thomas LaTourette: Mank would seem the likely winner here.

Best Costume Design

Emma. (RU:Peter)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Wesley, Tripp)
Mank (Thomas)
Mulan (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (RU:Tripp)
Promising Young Woman (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: It’s a tough call here. Ma Rainey’s seems like the most obvious choice and the costumes were fantastic, but Emma. and David Copperfield are more traditional. That said, I could also see them go a different direction and tick the box for Mulan since that type of design tends to do well with American awards bodies, possibly because they don’t see enough films from the East Asian marketplace.
Tripp Burton: I’ll go with Ma Rainey here, but there are lots of options
Thomas LaTourette: Mank seems likely to win here as well, though Mulan or Emma. could easily pull out the win.

Best Hair & Makeup

Emma.
Hillbilly Elegy (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Mank
Promising Young Woman (Peter)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Ma Rainey’s also seems like a no-brainer, but they could also go with Hillbilly Elegy for uglifying its actors.
Tripp Burton: This is a battle between the jazz stars, and I will give the edge to the more beloved film.
Thomas LaTourette: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom had the most noticeable makeup, which might propel it to a win. Or Hillbilly Elegy for making Glenn Close unrecognizable.

Best Visual Effects

Greyhound
The Invisible Man
Mank
The Midnight Sky (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Mulan (RU:Thomas)
Tenet (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Wonder Woman 1984 (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Tenet just seems like the default winner in this category, though Oscar voters might be a little more discerning of effects that are outside of the norm this year.
Tripp Burton: Tenet is the biggest action film here, and my guess is that it wins.
Thomas LaTourette: Tenet will probably win in a somewhat weak year for visual effects.

Best Foreign Language Film

Another Round (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Collective
The Life Ahead (RU:Tripp)
La Llorona
Minari (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Two of Us

Wesley Lovell: Minari is the only Best Picture winner on this list, so its win is almost assured. That is if voters don’t split their votes for Minari into Best Picture and opt for something like Another Round here instead.
Tripp Burton: The misplaced Minari will again win here over some wonderful underseen foreign films.
Thomas LaTourette: Unless they feel that Minari had enough spoken English to disqualify it, it will probably win. Denmark’s Another Round is probably its strongest competition.

Best Young Actor/Actress

Ryder Allen – Palmer
Ibrahima Gueye – The Life Ahead
Alan Kim – Minari (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Talia Ryder – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (RU:Thomas)
Caoilinn Springall – The Midnight Sky
Helena Zengel – News of the World (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Helena Zengel might have gotten the SAG and Globe nominations in Supporting Actress (but not here, oddly enough), but Alan Kim is in the more heavily talked about film and has picked up a few more awards this season for his juvenile performance.
Tripp Burton: Zengel has some real credentials going into this, but Alan Kim is the talk of anyone who sees Minari and could surprise us here.
Thomas LaTourette: Zengel was amazing in News of the World and would deserve this award.

Best Acting Ensemble

Da 5 Bloods
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (RU:Thomas)
Minari
One Night in Miami (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The most noteworthy fact about this category is that The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the only majority-white cast in the list. That could be enough for some voters, especially since it was such a well acted film, but One Night in Miami is far more rewarded for its ensemble while all of the others are probably equal in most estimations.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea — Trial, One Night, Ma Rainey, and Minari are all perfectly reasonable predictions for me.
Thomas LaTourette: Chicago 7 had the largest and strongest cast of these films, so I could see it winning.

Best Comedy

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Forty-Year-Old Version
The King of State Island
On the Rocks
Palm Springs (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Prom (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This group isn’t likely to go anywhere other than Borat or Palm Springs. Borat had more overall nominations from this org, so it’s probably the leader.
Tripp Burton: Borat 2 will probably repeat its Globe win, but there are several options here.
Thomas LaTourette: Borat may repeat its GG win here.