With the vast majority of critics having now spoken, it’s time to look forward to the guild nominations. We’ve already seen what the Screen Actors Guild has to offer and we’ll get quite a few more in the next few weeks. This is likely our penultimate predictions prior to the Oscar nominations being announced in March.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: With all of the shortlists released and with most of the remaining precursors left to announce being guilds (all except SAG, which has already announced), this list is the closest yet to what the final list will look like. Best Picture was incredibly difficult to select as there are about 12 or 13 films vying for up to 10 slots. Next year, there will be no fewer than 10, but for now, it’s a rather challenging race to predict.
Peter J. Patrick: With the Golden Globe and SAG nominations and the release of the Oscar shortlists, the race narrows but still leaves room for a surprise or two. The question is, which, if any, of the late releases which were ineligible for most critics’ awards, will impact the race at this point?
Tripp Burton: With a month still to go until Oscar nominations, and some players still just coming out, it seems like there is a lot up in the air still. We could have less consensus than usual, and I think some late-breakers like Judas and the Black Messiah and Andra Day could become big players. The guilds may sort some of this out, but I kind of hope they don’t.
Thomas LaTourette: It does feel like the Oscar possibilities are finally coming into focus after a very strange year. Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 still look like they will be major players, whereas Da 5 Bloods seems to have fallen off the radar. Minari, One Night in Miami, and Promising Young Woman all may do very well. Mank was a critics’ darling, but I am not sure if it will be as well received outside of Hollywood as audiences have not been so thrilled. I will be curious to see how it does on nomination morning. While some nominations seem set, there are times I thought it would be easier to choose four or six in a category, rather than five. Will Andra Day’s performance as Billie Holiday take the fifth spot, or will she lose out to Zendaya or Amy Adams. It might be easier to go with four noms there as that fifth spot is difficult? Will Maria Bakalova’s amazing work in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm be recognized, though it is not the typical film that gets acting nominations? News of the World’s Helena Zengel might replace her or Mank’s Amanda Seyfried. I will not get into too many specifics right now, but the races are taking shape and I think it will prove an exciting year.

Best Picture

• Da 5 Bloods WL O New PP C
• The Father PP O TL N
• Judas and the Black Messiah New WL C New TB C
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL N PP N TB O TL N
• Mank WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Minari New WL C PP N TB N TL N
• News of the World TB O TL N
• Nomadland WL O PP O TB O TL O
• One Night in Miami New WL C PP N TB O TL M
• Promising Young Woman WL O New PP C New TB C New TL C
• Soul WL N
• Sound of Metal New PP C New TL C
• The Trial of Chicago 7 WL O PP O TB N TL O

Best Animated Feature

• The Croods: A New Age WL N New PP C
• Earwig and the Witch New TB C New TL C
• Onward WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Over the Moon WL N PP N TB O TL N
• Soul WL O PP N TB O TL O
• Wolfwalkers New WL C PP N TB O TL N

Best Director

• Da 5 Bloods – Spike Lee WL N
• Mank – David Fincher PP O TB O TL TL O
• Minari – Lee Isaac Chung New WL C PP N New TB C
• Nomadland – Chloe Zhao WL O PP O TB O TL TL N
• One Night in Miami – Regina King New PP C TB O TL TL N
• Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell New WL C New TL TL C
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin WL N New PP C New TB C TL TL O

Best Actor

• Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal New WL C New PP C New TB C New TL C
• Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL N PP N TB N TL TL N
• Anthony Hopkins – The Father WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods New WL C New PP C
• Gary Oldman – Mank WL O TL TL O
• Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian New TB C
• Steven Yeun – Minari PP N TB O TL TL N

Best Actress

• Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Andra Day – United States vs. Billie Holiday TB N TL TL N
• Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman New WL C PP N TB N TL TL N
• Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead New WL C PP N
• Frances McDormand – Nomadland WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman WL O New PP C New TB C New TL TL C

Best Supporting Actor

• Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 New WL C PP N TB N TL O
• Kingsley Ben-Adair – One Night in Miami New PP C
• Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods New WL C New TB C New TL TL C
• Bo Burnham – Promising Young Woman New TB C
• Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah New WL C New PP C New TB C New TL TL C
• Bill Murray – On the Rocks New WL C
• Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami WL N New PP C New TB C TL TL N
• Paul Raci – Sound of Metal New PP C New TL TL C

Best Supporting Actress

• Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm New WL C New TL C
• Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman New WL C PP N
• Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Olivia Colman – The Father WL N PP O TB N TL TL N
• Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah New TB C
• Amanda Seyfried – Mank WL N PP O TB N TL TL N
• Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari PP O TB N TL TL N

Best Original Screenplay

• Mank WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Minari New WL C New PP C TB N TL TL N
• Never Rarely Sometimes Always New TB C
• Promising Young Woman WL O New PP C New TL TL C
• Soul WL N TB N
• Sound of Metal New PP C New TL TL C
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 WL O PP O TB O TL TL O

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Father WL N New PP C TB O TL N
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL N PP O TB O TL TL N
• The Mauritanian New TB C
• News of the World WL O PP O TL TL O
• Nomadland WL O PP O TB O TL TL N
• One Night in Miami New WL C New PP C TB N TL TL N

Best Original Song

• Fight for You – Judas and the Black Messiah PP O TB O TL O
• Hear My Voice – The Trial of the Chicago 7 WL O PP O
• Husavik – Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga WL O TL TL O
• Io Si (Seen) – The Life Ahead WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Make It Work – Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey TB O
• Rain Song – Minari PP O
• Speak Now – One Night in Miami WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Turntables – All In: The Fight for Democracy WL O TB O TL TL O

Best Original Score

• Da 5 Bloods WL O
• The Life Ahead PP O
• The Little Things TB O
• Mank WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• The Midnight Sky WL O TB O TL TL O
• Minari PP O TB O TL TL O
• News of the World PP O TL TL O
• Soul WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Tenet WL O

Best Film Editing

• Da 5 Bloods WL O
• Judas and the Black Messiah WL O PP O
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom TB O
• Mank WL O TL TL O
• Minari PP O
• News of the World TB O TL TL O
• Nomadland WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• One Night in Miami PP O
• Tenet TB O TL TL O
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 WL O PP O TB O TL TL O

Best Cinematography

• Da 5 Bloods WL O
• Judas and the Black Messiah TB O
• Mank WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Minari PP O
• News of the World WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Nomadland WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Tenet PP O TB O TL TL O
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 WL O TL TL O

Best Production Design

• Ammonite WL O
• Emma. WL O
• The Father PP O
• Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story WL O
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom PP O TB O
• Mank WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Mulan TB O TL TL O
• News of the World TB O TL TL O
• The Personal History of David Copperfield WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Tenet PP O TL TL O

Best Costume Design

• Emma. WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story WL O
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Mank WL O PP O TL TL O
• Mulan TB O TL TL O
• News of the World PP O TB O TL TL O
• The Personal History of David Copperfield WL O PP O TB O

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Birds of Prey WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Emma. WL O TL TL O
• Hillbilly Elegy PP O TB O TL TL O
• Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey WL O TB O
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Mank WL O PP O TL TL O
• Pinocchio PP O TB O

Best Sound

• Da 5 Bloods WL O PP O TB O
• Mank PP O TB O TL TL O
• The Midnight Sky WL O TB O
• News of the World PP O TL TL O
• Soul WL O PP O TL TL O
• Sound of Metal WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Tenet WL O TB O TL TL O

Best Visual Effects

• Birds of Prey WL O PP O
• Mank WL O TB O TL TL O
• The Midnight Sky WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Mulan WL O PP O TL TL O
• The One and Only Ivan TB O
• Tenet WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Welcome to Chechnya PP O TB O TL TL O

Best International Film

• Another Round WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Better Days PP O
• Charlatan TB O
• Collective WL O TB O TL TL O
• I’m No Longer Here PP O
• La Llorona WL O TL TL O
• Night of the Kings WL O TB O
• Quo Vadis, Aida? TB O TL TL O
• A Sun PP O
• Two of Us WL O PP O TL TL O

Best Documentary Feature

• 76 Days TB O
• All In: The Fight for Democracy WL O PP O
• Boys State WL O PP O TB O
• Collective TB O TL TL O
• Crip Camp TB O TL TL O
• Dick Johnson Is Dead WL O TL TL O
• MLK/FBI WL O PP O TB O
• Time WL O PP O TL TL O
• Welcome to Chechnya PP O TL TL O

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa WL O PP O
• Call Center Blues PP O TL TL O
• Colette WL O TB O TL TL O
• A Concerto Is a Conversation WL O TL TL O
• Do Not Split WL O TB O
• Hunger Ward PP O TB O
• Hysterical Girl PP O TB O
• A Love Song for Latasha WL O TL TL O
• The Speed Cubers TB O
• What Would Sophia Loren Do? PP O TL TL O

Best Animated Short Film

• Burrow WL O PP O TB O
• If Anything Happens I Love You WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Kapaemahu TB O TL TL O
• Opera PP O TL TL O
• Out WL O TL TL O
• The Snail and the Whale PP O TB O TL TL O
• To Gerard WL O
• Traces WL O PP O TB O

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Bittu PP O TB O TL O
• Feeling Through WL O TL TL O
• The Human Voice WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• The Letter Room WL O TB O TL TL O
• The Present WL O PP O
• Two Distant Strangers PP O TB O TL TL O
• The Van TB O
• White Eye WL O PP O