More films have vacated 2020, so our lists seem to be getting narrower and narrower, but with plenty of Netflix titles instead. After the break, we’ll get into our predictions for this year’s Oscars.

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Introductions

Wesley Lovell: As the pandemic worsens, it looks like theaters will be shuttering again and with so many tentpoles having vacated 2020, a lot of changes were made below. I updated all of the tentative, eligible, streaming, and unknown ratings for the films on the list, pushing out films like The French Dispatch, No Time to Die, and Dune, which have all moved to sunnier pastures. I had to change at least two nomination predictions in each category and, for the first time in years, the Best Visual Effects category is looking very slim indeed.
Peter J. Patrick: This year, more than ever thanks to the ongoing pandemic, there have been more changes to release schedules than any other. With the eligibility period extended to February 2021, many of the presumed contenders have still not been screened, making this year’s November predictions more uncertain than they would normally be.
Tripp Burton: With an Oscar season on the horizon unlike any we have seen before, there are a lot more questions right now than there normally would: Can Netflix really run the table and dominate? Is there a place for a lot of the smaller, wonderful films from earlier this year to stay relevant? Will all of these films actually come out this year, or will they be pushed to next year like so many others? With a glutton of movies being rolled out in the next few months, what will emerge as a contender and what will be overlooked? (Okay, that last one we always get, but not usually in mid-November). This is looking to be a fun season, and hopefully an unpredictable one.
Thomas LaTourette: I do not remember ever changing so many predictions from one time to the next. Only four of my best picture guesses made it from one list to the next. And in the shorter categories, it was only two or three that did. Some of that comes from movies playing in festivals and not doing so well, so those nominations no longer seem probable. But several also do with films being pulled from release this year with release dates being set beyond eligibility requirements. One wonders how many more will change as the pandemic rages and fewer movies open in theaters. The bias against movies released on streaming services may be over, for this year at least. Whether that will last is anyone’s guess. Somewhat surprisingly, some nominations already seem fairly set, with Mank, Nomadland, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Soul and The Trail of the Chicago 7 ready to scoop up multiple prestige nominations. Waiting in the wings, smaller films like Minari, Da 5 Bloods and One Night in Miami all could do well too. A couple of these have been released already with dates set for the others, so hopefully I will not have to overhaul the list quite as much the next time. At this point I have only seen two of the films listed below, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Over the Moon, so it is still mostly guess work, though I have a better idea of what may get nominated. So happy viewing, however you can manage to see them.

Best Picture

• Da 5 Bloods WL O TL O
• The Father PP O TB O New TL N
• French Exit New PP N
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom New WL N New PP N TB O New TL N
• Mank WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Minari New PP N New TB N New TL N
• Never Rarely Sometimes Always New WL N
• News of the World WL O PP O TB O New TL N
• Nomadland WL O PP O TB O TL O
• One Night in Miami New PP N TB O New TL M
• The Prom New WL N New PP N
• Promising Young Woman WL O
• Soul New WL N TB O New TL M
• The Trial of Chicago 7 WL O PP O New TB N TL O
• United States vs. Billie Holiday New TB N

Best Animated Feature

• Connected PP O TB O New TL N
• The Croods: A New Age New WL N
• Onward WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Over the Moon New WL N New PP N TB O New TL N
• Ride Your Wave WL O
• Soul WL O New PP N TB O TL O
• Wolfwalkers New PP N TB O New TL N

Best Director

• Da 5 Bloods – Spike Lee New WL N TL O
• The Father – Florian Zeller New PP N
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – George C. Wolfe New TB N
• Mank – David Fincher WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Minari – Lee Isaac Chung New PP N
• News of the World – Paul Greengrass New WL N PP O TB O
• Nomadland – Chloe Zhao WL O PP O TB O New TL TL N
• One Night in Miami – Regina King TB O New TL TL N
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin New WL N TL TL O

Best Actor

• Ben Affleck – The Way Back WL O
• Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom New WL N New PP N New TB N New TL TL N
• Tom Hanks – News of the World New WL N PP O
• Anthony Hopkins – The Father WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods TB O TL TL O
• Gary Oldman – Mank WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Steven Yeun – Minari New PP N TB O New TL TL N

Best Actress

• Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Andra Day – United States vs. Billie Holiday New TB N New TL TL N
• Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman New PP N New TB N New TL TL N
• Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead New PP N New TL TL N
• Frances McDormand – Nomadland WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman WL O
• Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit PP O TB O
• Meryl Streep – The Prom WL O
• Kate Winslet – Ammonite New WL N

Best Supporting Actor

• Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7 New WL N
• Kingsley Ben-Adair – One Night in Miami New WL N New TB N
• Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 New PP N New TB N TL TL O
• Charles Dance – Mank New WL N PP O TB O New TL TL N
• Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7 New PP N
• Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami New WL N New TL TL N
• Trevante Rhodes – United States vs. Billie Holiday New TB N
• Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 New PP N New TL TL N
• David Strathairn – Nomadland New WL N PP O TL TL O
• Stanley Tucci – Supernova New TB N

Best Supporting Actress

• Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman New PP N New TB N New TL N
• Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Olivia Colman – The Father New WL N PP O New TB N New TL TL N
• Nicole Kidman – The Prom New WL N
• Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite WL O
• Amanda Seyfried – Mank New WL N PP O New TB N New TL TL N
• Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari PP O New TB N New TL TL N

Best Original Screenplay

• Ammonite PP O
• Da 5 Bloods TB O New TL TL N
• The Father PP O
• I’m Thinking of Ending Things WL O
• Mank WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Minari New TB N New TL TL N
• Promising Young Woman WL O
• Soul New WL N New P N New TB N New TL TL N
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 WL O PP O TB O TL TL O

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Devil All the Time WL O
• The Father New WL N TB O New TL TL N
• French Exit New PP N
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom New WL N PP O TB O New TL TL N
• News of the World WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Nomadland WL O PP O TB O New TL TL N
• One Night in Miami New TB N New TL TL N
• The Outpost New PP N