As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

The strangest part of this year is how little consensus has emerged and when it does, it’s in unusual places. For our final nominations predictions set for the 93rd Oscars, we have found very little common ground except in some strangely interesting places. For the first time I can remember, all of us chose the same ten films for Best Picture. While we all have them in vastly different orders. That’s an amazing alignment. We were almost nearly unified in Animated Feature with Tripp being the odd choice out. We also came close to unifying in Actor (Thomas and I split from Peter and Tripp on one person); Actress (where Peter’s the odd man out this time); Original Screenplay (Tripp again); and Adapted Screenplay (if you guessed, Tripp…). Who knows how close we’ll all be to one another, but like every year, the documentary and short film categories may be the determining factors.

A final programming note before you move on. My annual Oscar Morning article (with attached follow-along PDF) will be coming out soon. It’s taking a bit longer than expected and other obligations have gotten in the way. I assure you, though, it will hopefully be posted before dinner time.

I also hope to have one more final update to the precursor awards and tallies (the tallies list is short I think three or four precursors while the other is way behind) by the end of the day. Tallies will most likely be up first since it’s most helpful. If you want to know how a group voted, the info is contained there, though not as easy to find. You can also enter your organization into the search field and it should come back with the right results.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: A lot has changed since we first released our predictions. All of it has been pandemic-related. Over time, most of the films we expected to be contenders this year (Dune, In the Heights, West Side Story, and others) were pushed back to this year. Others rose to prominence where they might not have had those big titles not been pushed back. Making choices this year has been exceptionally difficult with usually reliable precursors like the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and British Academy of Film & Television Arts throwing tons of curveballs, making this an incredibly difficult year to predict. Yet, we have tried and here are my final predictions as wrong as some of them may ultimately be.
Peter J. Patrick: It’s time for the fat lady to sing, bringing this year’s opera to a close. It’s been a long fourteen months in which Oscar voters, like the rest of us, have sat at home watching most, if not all, of the year’s films on their TVs. There’s been no need to wait for screeners, many of which don’t get watched anyway. Despite all the films available for viewing, there has been surprisingly little divergence amongst awards bodies in the major awards categories. Only BAFTA, with its acting and directing committee choices, has done anything markedly different.
Tripp Burton: Well, the weirdest year on record is leading to the weirdest Oscar race in my lifetime. I have no idea what is going to happen, and I really feel like anything could happen. I love the mystery this year, and if I get most of these wrong, it will be like a messed up Groundhog Day preparing us for 6 more weeks of chaos!
Thomas LaTourette: The weirdest and longest, at least in my lifetime, Oscar season is finally drawing to a close with nominations due out Monday morning. It will be interesting to see how certain films are treated. Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Minari all should do well. Films like Promising Young Woman, Borat, News of the World, and Mank may chalk up a number of nominations, or may end up feeling slighted. Both The Father and Da 5 Bloods had early on seemed like they would be major players, but they just may not do as well as forecast. A number of races feel very up in the air, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. There are always surprises and I will be looking forward to the announcements.

Best Picture

• (39) Nomadland WL 10 O PP 10 O TB 9 O TL 10 O
• (33) Minari WL 8 C PP 9 N TB 8 N TL 8 N
• (30) The Trial of Chicago 7 WL 7 O PP 4 O TB 10 N TL 9 O
• (29) Promising Young Woman WL 9 O PP 7 C TB 6 C TL 7 C
• (19) Mank WL 6 O PP 2 O TB 5 O TL 6 O
• (18) One Night in Miami WL 5 C PP 6 N TB 2 O TL 5 M
• (17) Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL 4 N PP 3 N TB 7 O TL 3 N
• (17) Sound of Metal New WL 2 F PP 8 C New TB 3 F TL 4 C
• (11) Judas and the Black Messiah WL 1 C New PP 5 F TB 4 C New TL 1 F
• (07) The Father New WL 3 F PP 1 O New TB 1 F TL 2 N

Wesley Lovell: Two films that might not have otherwise been taken so seriously, Nomadland and Promising Young Woman, have managed to dominate awards season like few others. Others came along late in the game, but perhaps too late. That said, my list has shifted a lot since last year and while I’m pretty sure most of my top 6 or so films will make the final list, the other four will struggle to make a cut-off that won’t be guaranteed at 10 until next year. Ma Rainey’s seems to be more solid than I originally gave it credit for and I think ultimately it could be the bottom of the list of seven nominees. With 8 or 9, I think The Father and Sound of Metal may benefit the most, with the common number of nominations in recent years at 9. That said, I do not discount Judas and the Black Messiah, which might have peaked at the right moment, on securing a slot, possibly even over something we have taken for granted like Mank or Ma Rainey or One Night in Miami, which seem like good bets on paper, but aren’t guarantees.
Peter J. Patrick: My best guess is that there will be nine nominees, just like last year, with nine of the ten films nominated by the Producers Guild of America the choices. Nomadland, which has led the pack all along, will certainly be nominated, as will Minari, which is coming on strong. Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman, One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom should all be there as well. Mank, once the predicted front-runner, could be a shocking omission but will probably make it in. The Father is the one PGA omission likely to be nominated, if there are ten nominees.
Tripp Burton: The confusion this year starts right at the top, where there are a few locks and then a lot of question marks. The top 5 seem pretty solid to me — The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, Minari, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Promising Young Woman have all been picking up lots of guild nominations. Mank is probably also solid, even though I’m not sure if people love the film or just respect its technical aspects. After that, the surging Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal keep getting surprise citations that could push them ahead of the rest of the pack, but One Night in Miami or The Father are just as likely. And that is not discounting an out-of-the-blue nominee in this jumbled year, like The White Tiger or The Mauritanian.
Thomas LaTourette: Not knowing how many nominees there will be this year, it is hard to be certain about choosing ten films. I feel pretty good about the top eight. The final two spots, if they get nominations, will most likely be between PGA nominees Borat and Judas and the Black Messiah, SAG cast nominee Da 5 Bloods, and The Father, which was not nominated by either group. It is hard to figure out these last two spots. I will go with The Father in the ninth spot just because I have heard such good things about it and it has the highest critical rating. And Judas in number ten, just slightly over Borat, which is not the usual type of film for them to nominate. Da 5 Bloods has been overlooked a lot lately, and I will continue that trend.

Best Animated Feature

• The Croods: A New Age WL N PP C New TL F
• Earwig and the Witch TB C
• Onward WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Over the Moon WL N PP N TB O TL N
• Soul WL O PP N TB O TL O
• Wolfwalkers WL C PP N TB O TL N

Wesley Lovell: Four titles have been mentioned on nearly every list this year and The Croods: A New Age is bound to benefit from the love the Academy’s animation branch has for DreamWorks, a company that has landed more sequels and spinoffs on the Best Picture slate than even Pixar has. There are a few that could surprise, like Aardman’s Shaun the Sheep sequel or Netflix’s Willoughbys. The other wild card is Gkids, which has nabbed double nominations before, which could benefit Ride Your Wave, Lupin III, and Studio Ghibli’s first computer-animated flick Earwig and the Witch, all of which could join Wolfwalkers on the list.
Peter J. Patrick: Soul and Wolfwalkers will certainly be nominated, while Onward and Over the Moon will almost as certainly be there. The fifth nominee could be anything, but I think it will be The Croods: A New Age.
Tripp Burton: Soul and Wolfwalkers have been dominating the season, and Onward and Over the Moon are probably likely Hollywood candidates to make it in. I’m guessing Earwig and the Witch gets the last slot, but this category likes surprises.
Thomas LaTourette: Soul, Onward, and Wolfwalkers all feel safe. Over the Moon probably will get a nom too. The last spot is not as easy to predict. Studio Ghibli has done well before, but Earwig and the Witch is not their usual fare. Aardman’s Farmageddon might pull off a nom, but came out so long ago that it is not on a lot of people’s radars right now. I will give the last spot to PGA nominee The Croods.

Best Director

• Judas and the Black Messiah – Shaka King New TB F
• Mank – David Fincher New WL F TL TL O
• Minari – Lee Isaac Chung WL C PP N TB C New TL TL F
• Nomadland – Chloe Zhao WL O PP O TB O TL TL N
• One Night in Miami – Regina King PP C
• Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell WL C New PP F New TB F TL TL C
• Sound of Metal – Darius Marder New PP F
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin WL N TB C TL TL O

Wesley Lovell: There are two names I would almost guarantee will be read out on Monday morning: Chloé Zhao and Lee Isaac Chung. I’m also fairly confident that Emerald Fennell will join the list and make it a historic one, the first in Oscar history to feature two women. Of course, Regina King, could make three, but with David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin, Thomas Vinterberg, Darius Marder, Florian Zeller, and Spike Lee all circling the list, it might be difficult for her to get in. After all, the Directors Branch is not a huge fan of actors-turned-directors, which could also be a negative for Fennell. For Fennell’s sake, she’s not well known and King is. King even has an Oscar. That could be a bigger negative, or it might be the bigger positive. We’ll see.
Peter J. Patrick: Academy picks don’t always line up with Directors Guild of America choices. This year, though, could both be on the mark and off of it by selecting three of the DGA’s choices for Best Director and two of its choices for Best First-Time Director, which means we could see three women nominated.
Tripp Burton: There is Chloé Zhao in this race, and then there are a lot of contenders for the other slots. Lee Isaac Chung and Aaron Sorkin both seem solid bets here, each getting DGA nods, but voters could also see them as writers more than directors. The DGA also nominated David Fincher and Emerald Fennell for splashier filmmaking, and their First-Time Feature nominees Regina King and Darius Marter seem prime for a slot here. I went with Fennell, who has a lot of momentum right now, and a surprise rising star for my last slot: Shaka King for Judas and the Black Messiah, which seems to be breaking at just the right moment.
Thomas LaTourette: I will go with the Directors Guild list here, as it seems a likely group. Regina King might be an upset nominee, though I am not certain who she would replace.

Best Actor

• Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal WL C PP C TB C TL C
• Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL N PP N TB N TL TL N
• Anthony Hopkins – The Father WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Gary Oldman – Mank WL O TL TL O
• Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian New PP F TB C
• Steven Yeun – Minari New WL F PP N TB O TL TL N

Wesley Lovell: Boseman, Ahmed, and Hopkins are clearly certain. Yeun and Oldman are less so. Mads Mikkelsen might make a surprise appearance in the category, like Catherine Deneuve once did back in the 1990s for a Best Foreign Language Film contender, or BAFTA nominee Tahar Rahim could benefit from the late-breaking love of The Mauritanian. Poor Delroy Lindo, though. He was clearly a leading contender until Yeun, Mikkelsen, and Rahim came onto the scene.
Peter J. Patrick: Chadwick Boseman, Riz Ahmed, and Anthony Hopkins are virtual certainties, but early front-runners like Gary Oldman and Delroy Lindo could be overtaken by Steven Yeun and Tahar Rahim.
Tripp Burton: Riz Ahmed, Chadwick Boseman, and Anthony Hopkins have all been the consistent players this season, and any of them missing out here would be a shock to the system. Steven Yeun’s SAG nomination, for a film that more and more people are discovering and loving.
Thomas LaTourette: Ahmed, Hopkins, Oldman, and frontrunner Boseman all seem set for noms. Minari’s Steven Yeun is likely to join them, though he could face stiff competition from Delroy Lindo from Da 5 Bloods or rising star Tahar Rahim from The Mauritanian.

Best Actress

• Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Andra Day – United States vs. Billie Holiday New WL F TB N TL N
• Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman WL C PP N TB N TL N
• Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead PP N
• Frances McDormand – Nomadland WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman WL O PP C TB C TL C

Wesley Lovell: While it was an absolute shock that Mulligan didn’t make the BAFTA list, she, McDormand, and Davis are exceedingly unlikely to be ignored this time around. Kirby has benefited from the recent emergence of Pieces of a Woman as a contender while Day will likely sweep into the race thanks to her win at the Globes. Amy Adams and Zendaya are on deck, but aren’t as likely to get the nod while Elisabeth Moss might sneak in for one of her two well regarded performances this year, most likely in The Invisible Man and not Shirley.
Peter J. Patrick: Viola Davis, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand, and Carey Mulligan are practically indestructible, but the fifth nominee could still be a surprise. I think it comes down to a choice between Andra Day and Sophia Loren with veteran Loren eking out what will almost surely be her last chance at a nomination.
Tripp Burton: This category has been more stable than some of the others, and Viola Davis, Frances McDormand, and Carey Mulligan all seem locked in. Vanessa Kirby has shown up everywhere, and Andra Day won a Golden Globe but hasn’t really appeared elsewhere, and for now, I would be on them as the other two.
Thomas LaTourette: This is the only group that feels absolutely solid. Andra Day’s Golden Globe win seems to have cemented her position here, and I just do not see anyone else knocking one of them out.

Best Supporting Actor

• Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 WL C PP N TB N TL O
• Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods TL C
• Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah WL C PP C TB C TL C
• Alan Kim – Minari New WL F New PP F New TB F
• Jared Leto – The Little Things New TB F
• Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami WL N PP C TB C TL N
• Paul Raci – Sound of Metal New WL F PP C TL C

Wesley Lovell: Kaluuya is probably the biggest benefactor of his film’s late release as he’s managed to overtake Odom Jr. as the likely winner in this category. Odom Jr. will probably still be nominated, as will Sacha Baron Cohen. Beyond that, competition for the remaining two slots is rather fierce with Paul Raci missing several precursors, but gaining momentum from BAFTA while Alan Kim’s emotional acceptance speech at the Critics Choice awards might have ensured a Supporting Actor nomination. Chadwick Boseman’s other major achievement this year, Da 5 Bloods, had been doing well until Judas and the Black Messiah came along to steal its thunder. Jared Leto nabbed Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations, which shocked everyone, and could mean he’s more in the conversation than expected. Bill Murray has the same problem as Delroy Lindo does in Best Actor. His film has entirely faded and while Murray was the last remnant of his film to compete, the bountiful number of nominations he’s received will likely mean nothing. Outside contenders Bo Burnham, Frank Langella, and Glynn Turman didn’t really gain much traction, though strong performances by their respective Best Picture-contending films might pull them in their coattails.
Peter J. Patrick: Like Best Actress, I’ve been convinced of four nominees here for some time – Sacha Baron Cohen, Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom Jr., and Paul Raci. Although many are predicting a second nomination for Chadwick Boseman, I think 8-year-old Alan Kim could slip in at the last minute. His “I hope I get to make more movies” through buckets of tears as he accepted his Best Juvenile Performance award was the highlight at last Sunday’s otherwise repetitive Critics Choice Awards.
Tripp Burton: Daniel Kaluuya has become the runaway leader in this category, and I would be shocked if Leslie Odom Jr. and Sacha Baron Cohen weren’t there with him. After that, this is a little bit of a scattershot category. Jared Leto has surprisingly shown up in a few places, Chadwick Boseman has picked up second nominations in several places, and Alan Kim was a surprise nominee at BAFTA after a charming speech last weekend at the Critics Choice Awards. I think Minari love could sneak him in over Boseman, whose film (Da 5 Bloods) doesn’t seem to be quite nearly as loved by voters.
Thomas LaTourette: I would love to see Frank Langella or Mark Rylance join their costar, and almost certain nominee, Sacha Baron Cohen, though I doubt that will happen. He, Kaluuya, Odom, and Raci seem fairly locked in, but that last spot is the hardest to predict. If Chadwick Boseman was still alive, I think he would be a shoo-in for a double nomination, but I am just not certain they will give him both now. Jared Leto or Alan Kim might get it, but I guess I will keep Boseman in because no one else seems set to topple him.

Best Supporting Actress

• Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm WL C TL C
• Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Olivia Colman – The Father WL N PP O TB N TL N
• Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah TB C
• Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian New PP F New TL F
• Amanda Seyfried – Mank WL N PP O TB N
• Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari New WL F PP O TB N TL N

Wesley Lovell: Mank did suitably well with critics, but the film has been underperforming all season with Amanda Seyfried, a surefire nominee in the Academy’s long-standing ingenue trend, has been fading in estimations for months now. I still think she can hold on, but there’s so much competition that nothing is guaranteed. Olivia Colman is probably the only one. Every other contender has emerged and faded with some regularity throughout the season and if none of my other predictions in this category are accurate, I think she will be. Glenn Close has emerged as a serious contender for one of the worst reviewed films of the year while Yuh-jung Youn has quietly amassed all the attention that Hong Chau failed to secure a couple of years ago and everyone from Parasite failed to do last year. Maria Bakalova is another huge question mark. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm isn’t an Oscar-obvioius movie. It’s a sketch comedy film that feels like a long string of vignettes rather than a serious picture. Yet, she has managed to earn numerous nominations with groups one wouldn’t expect her to do well with, so she’s probably got a better chance of getting in than Seyfried at this point, but I wouldn’t be surprised either if she missed. That leaves Ellen Burstyn, who had emerged alongside Vanessa Kirby as the only contenders from their film, but has missed numerous citations that could have guaranteed her a spot on the list. Dominique Fishback hasn’t gotten a lot of attention and I think she could surprise everyone to earn a nomination this year while Helena Zengel has also done quite well. With so many people fighting for four slots, this could be the most wildly unpredictable category this year. That’s too bad for Olivia Cooke who could have benefited from Sound of Metal‘s rise in popularity.
Peter J. Patrick: This one has been the most unpredictable of all the acting categories this year. I’m virtually certain of a nomination for Yuh-jung Youn as the grandmother in Minari, and reasonably certain of the popular Olivia Colman as the daughter in The Father, but not at all certain of the others. Glenn Close and Amanda Seyfried have both been shut out of important precursor consideration while Jodie Foster on the other hand has increased her chances with her surprise Golden Globe win and shocked acceptance speech.
Tripp Burton: At this point, there would be nothing that would surprise me in this category. Maria Bakalova is the only contender with a Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nomination, but it is such an unconventional performance in a divisive movie that I don’t see the Academy going for it. After that, you have a dozen contenders, any of whom could be locks or could easily be left off. Olivia Colman seems like the safest bet, especially if the film does well. My guess is that love for Minari and Judas… will put Young Yuh-jung and Dominique Fishback in here, and the inertia of support for Amanda Seyfried and Glenn Close will help them. But all five of those people could be replaced by Jodie Foster, Ellen Burstyn, Maria Bakalova, Helena Zengel, or a complete surprise, and I would not be shocked.
Thomas LaTourette: This feels like the most difficult category to predict, and I may be way off. Olivia Colman and Minari’s Youn Yuh-jung feel pretty solid. Maria Bakalova was astounding in Borat, but I am still uncertain if the Academy will recognize her work. If nominated, she might be the front runner, though I could easily see them passing over her too. Glenn Close had seemed an early lock and frontrunner, but she could even miss out. Jodie Foster’s Golden Globe win was surprising, but she seems to be peaking at the right time and may pull off a nom. Will Amada Seyfried or the amazing Helena Zengel get in? I am unsure.

Best Original Screenplay

• Judas and the Black Messiah New TB F
• Mank WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Minari WL C PP C TB N TL N
• Promising Young Woman WL O PP C New TB F TL C
• Sound of Metal New WL F PP C TL C
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: The big winners of the screenwriting derby so far this season have been Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7, at least in terms of original screenplays. Minari has quietly fallen into a sure third position while Sound of Metal has been solidifying its support and could well take the fourth spot. Surprisingly, Jack Fincher (David’s late father) was thought originally to be a major contender for his screenplay about Herman J. Mankiewicz’s authorship of Citizen Kane over Orson Welles purists who believe the director defined the film. Yet, the film’s fading prospects have injured him and Seyfried the most. That said, I think he could still end up a nominee, but not if Judas and the Black Messiah, Palm Springs, Soul, or Never Rarely Sometimes Always have anything to say about it.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m reasonably certain these high-profile candidates will be the five nominees.
Tripp Burton: WGA nominated Best Picture contenders Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, and Judas and the Black Messiah, while BAFTA also nominated the WGA-ineligible Mank, and those four should be sure things here. I would also be on Minari, a strong Best Picture contender, to be a lock here. I would be surprised if any of those don’t make it in here.
Thomas LaTourette: I feel pretty good about these predictions, though the Academy could still throw in a surprise like Judas and the Black Messiah or Soul.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Father WL N PP C TB O TL N
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL N PP O TB O TL N
• News of the World WL O PP O TL O
• Nomadland WL O PP O TB O TL N
• One Night in Miami WL C PP C TB N TL N
• The White Tiger New TB F

Wesley Lovell: Nomadland and The Father have been frequently cited for their scripts this year while the stage-to-screen adaptations of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami have also been hot properties. That really leaves only one spot for a nominee and that could come down to News of the World, The Mauritanian, and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. That said, I’m Thinking of Ending Things and First Cow both had a strong run at the precursors for writing, so they could be left-field shocks in this race.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m also reasonably certain that these equally high-profile films will be the nominees.
Tripp Burton: Four Best Picture contenders here — The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland, and One Night in Miami — all have lots of precursor love and are writer-friendly films that should be considered locks here. For the fifth slot, there are lots of possibilities, but I’m going to narrow it down to The White Tiger or The Mauritanian, two late contenders that each picked up an industry nod (WGA for The White Tiger, BAFTA for The Mauritanian).
Thomas LaTourette: The one possibility not on my list is Borat Subsequent Moviefilm which was nominated by the Writers Guild. The original Borat was nominated, so perhaps this will join it, though I doubt it could win.

Best Original Song

• Fight for You – Judas and the Black Messiah New WL F PP O TB O TL O
• Hear My Voice – The Trial of the Chicago 7 WL O PP O New TL F
• Io Si (Seen) – The Life Ahead WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Make It Work – Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey TB O
• Rain Song – Minari New WL F PP O
• Speak Now – One Night in Miami WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Turntables – All In: The Fight for Democracy TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: “Speak Now,” “Hear My Voice,” and “Io Si (Seen)” have had the most attention thrown their away among serious songs. “Husavik” and “Wuhan Flu” have done well as parodies. Then there’s the emergence of Minari that could help “Rain Song” earn a nod. “Fight for You” has become an impressive contender in the recent months while “Green” quietly bubbles under waiting for vote splits to finish. Then there’s the Original Song slot that occurs far more frequently than expected, going to a track from a documentary. That favors “Turntables.” Honestly, I could see any of these in the final five with all of the rest of the shortlisted songs making a go of it too.
Peter J. Patrick: These are all powerful songs that should resonate with the voters.
Tripp Burton: If we’ve learned anything the last few years, it is that anything can happen in this category. I feel like the songs from One Night in Miami, The Life Ahead, and Judas and the Black Messiah are certainties, but after that it is a toss-up.
Thomas LaTourette: None of my predicted song nominees made that much of an impact when I saw the films they were in. :Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest is supposed to be a fun song and might knock out one of the more serious contenders that appears only in the closing credits.

Best Original Score

• The Life Ahead PP O
• The Little Things TB O
• Mank WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Midnight Sky WL O TB O TL O
• Minari New WL F PP O TB O TL O
• News of the World New WL F PP O TL O
• Soul WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross have to be quite proud of themselves. They have turned into a reliable score composition team and have been quietly amassing a solid reputation. That all pays off this year when they get double-nominated (Mank, Soul). Alexandre Desplat (The Midnight Sky) has become the new John Williams and he seems to get nominated even when others don’t expect him to be. Longtime scoring veteran James Newton Howard could get another career citation for News of the World as well. While the latter two aren’t guaranteed, there are plenty of potential replacements including Emile Mosseri for Minari, who I think will sneak into the fifth and final slot; Ludwig Goransson for Tenet; Terence Blanchard for Da 5 Bloods; and possibly even Harry Gregson-Williams, Daniel Pemberton, or Thomas Newman, who could take a spot for Mulan, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and The Little Things respectively.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m not at all certain of the choices in this category other than Soul which has the year’s best original song score.
Tripp Burton: There are the two Ross-Reznor scores (Mank and Soul, with Jon Batiste), and then there are 13 contenders that I don’t know what to do with. The Little Things and The Midnight Sky come from favorite composers in a branch that loves its favorites, and Minari seems like the breakthrough of a hot young composer.
Thomas LaTourette: These feel like decent choices, so I will not change my predictions from last month.

Best Film Editing

• The Father New TL F
• Judas and the Black Messiah PP O
• Mank WL O TL O
• Minari PP O New TB F
• Nomadland WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Promising Young Woman New WL F New TB F
• Sound of Metal New WL F New PP F New TB F New TL F
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: One of the most accurate bellwethers of Best Picture victories is the Film Editing category. So take every film that’s a contender for Best Picture and then add in non-contenders Tenet and Palm Springs. There you pretty much have the race in a nutshell. That said, most of the Best Picture contenders aren’t going to be in this hunt and the likes of One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom are unlikely to get nominated. Sound of Metal seems to be going for the Whiplash nomination set while The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the most honored editing effort so far this season. Throw Oscar Best Picture frontrunner Nomadland into that race and the you have Mank and Promising Young Woman barely on my final five list over Tenet, Palm Springs, Minari, The Father, and Judas and the Black Messiah.
Peter J. Patrick: These would be my picks. We’ll see how close the Academy comes.
Tripp Burton: The ACE Drama lineup — Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 — seems very likely here, but Promising Young Woman and The Father both seem like obvious choices here. I’m not sure where they would fit in.
Thomas LaTourette: Four of these I feel certain about. That last spot could go so many ways with The Father, Tenet, News of the World, Minari, and Promising Young Woman vying for that final spot. From what I hear, The Father deserves it, so I will lean that way, but could imagine it going to one of the others.

Best Cinematography

• Da 5 Bloods WL O
• Judas and the Black Messiah TB O
• Mank WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Minari PP O New TB F
• News of the World WL O PP O TL O
• Nomadland WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Tenet New WL F PP O TL O
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 New TB F TL O

Wesley Lovell: Nomadland has this one all sewn up while Mank and News of the World are pretty well assured of nominations. That leaves Da 5 Bloods, Tenet, Minari, The Midnight Sky, and, the shock of the American Society of Cinematographers nominations this year, Cherry. Any of these titles could make the list and a surprise is never out of the line of expectations.
Peter J. Patrick: There’s always a surprise or two with this category so I’m not at all certain that these will be the nominees.
Tripp Burton: Every year, there is a film with BAFTA and ASC nominations that misses out here, and I have a feeling that might be News of the World this year. That leaves Mank and Nomadland as the front-runners, with some other Best Picture contenders in the mix. This category has given us some surprises, lately, and there could be a real one here on Monday.
Thomas LaTourette: There can always be surprises, but these feel pretty solid. Da 5 Bloods seems to be being overlooked this year and Minari may not be flashy enough to get a nomination.

Best Production Design

• Birds of Prey New WL F
• The Father PP O
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom New WL F PP O TB O
• Mank WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Midnight Sky New TL F
• Mulan TB O TL O
• News of the World New WL F TB O TL O
• The Personal History of David Copperfield PP O
• Promising Young Woman New TB F
• Tenet New WL F PP O TL O

Wesley Lovell: The likely eventual winner, Mank, is the only film I can say with certainty that won’t be left off. All the rest are interchangeable and I could see picking a different list to fill the remaining four slots at any point. However, based on the Art Directors Guild selections and precursor trends, these are my best guesses with Birds of Prey my choice for left-field pick in the race.
Peter J. Patrick: These five certainly have a lot of production design in them.
Tripp Burton: Mank and News of the World are the only films with nominations from the Art Directors Guild, the brand-new Set Decorators Guild, and BAFTA. After that, Ma Rainey, and Mulan seem like well-respected contenders. I’m going out on a limb and thinking that Promising Young Women might surprise us in here
Thomas LaTourette: The Personal History of David Copperfield or Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom might knock out one of these, with the modern The Midnight Sky probably being the most vulnerable.

Best Costume Design

• Emma. WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story WL O
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Mank WL O PP O New TB F TL O
• Mulan TB O TL O
• News of the World PP O TB O TL O
• The Personal History of David Copperfield PP O
• Promising Young Woman New WL F

Wesley Lovell: This is a little easier to adjudicate than Best Production Design, but not by much. What used to be a category where frilly, period outfits were all the rage is now a category where such costumes are mostly picked all the time. Ma Rainey and Emma. seem to me the only ones sure to be there with the rest guesses. Promising Young Woman is my oddball pick for this category.
Peter J. Patrick: These are all period dramas, but those are what the Academy likes best in this category.
Tripp Burton: The CDG and BAFTA agreed on three nominees — Emma., Ma Rainey, and Mank — and those feel like certainties here. After that, Mulan seems like a good bet for a fourth slot. News of the World wasn’t cited by either guild, but Mark Bridges is a popular Oscar nominee of late and could sneak in here.
Thomas LaTourette: These seem likely nominees, though The Personal History of David Copperfield or The United States vs Billie Holiday might make a surprise appearance.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Birds of Prey WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Emma. TL O
• Hillbilly Elegy New WL F PP O TB O TL O
• Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey TB O
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Mank WL O PP O TL O
• Pinocchio New WL F PP O TB O

Wesley Lovell: A set list of 10 potential nominees is surprisingly chaotic this year. Ma Rainey and Hillbilly Elegy seem best poised to score nods with Pinocchio, Mank, and Birds of Prey next most likely. I could see all but The Glorias and The Little Things pulling off nominations.
Peter J. Patrick: The Italian live-action Pinocchio is the dark horse here, but it deserves to be included.
Tripp Burton: I still am not sure how the expanded 5 nominees play out here, but this is a category that always likes flash, and these are some flashy nominees.
Thomas LaTourette: I am keeping my February guesses intact. The main one I wonder about is whether the Italian made Pinocchio might make the cut, as they often will nominate one foreign film here, though it never wins.

Best Sound

• Da 5 Bloods PP O
• Greyhound New TB F
• Mank New WL F PP O TB O TL O
• The Midnight Sky WL O TB O
• News of the World PP O TL O
• Soul WL O PP O TL O
• Sound of Metal WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Tenet WL O TL O
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 New TB F

Wesley Lovell: This is the first year of the merged sound categories. Will the sound editors be utterly subsumed by the sound mixers? Or will they push for something very important to them that might not be otherwise recognized by the Sound Mixers? We’ll see. For me, Sound of Metal is a sure thing while Soul seems a logical selection. Mank is probably higher in my estimations than it should be, but it did pick up both Cinema Audio Society and Motion Picture Sound Editors nominations while Tenet did not, which could be a detriment; however, for a film that is tech heavy, it could make the list. The Midnight Sky is the other tech heavy film on the cusp of a nomination with Nomadland, Greyhound, and News of the World my picks to pull off potential surprise nominations.
Peter J. Patrick: Anything other than Sound of Metal winning this one would be an outrage, but these are all strong picks.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea what this will look like with the two categories merged into one. This is merely a guess.
Thomas LaTourette: The combination of the sound mixing and sound editing categories into one generic sound award does make it harder to predict how this might go. I do not know if either guild will carry more weight, so this is more of a guess than I would like.

Best Visual Effects

• Birds of Prey PP O
• Mank WL O TB O TL O
• The Midnight Sky WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Mulan WL O PP O TL O
• The One and Only Ivan TB O
• Tenet WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Welcome to Chechnya New WL F PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: Ten films enter, only five come out. Love and Monsters and Bloodshot are poorly received films that aren’t likely to make the top five. Soul would be the rare animated film to make the list if it did, but I don’t think that it will. Beyond that, the other seven all have pretty solid chances. I’d love to see Birds of Prey on the list, but I suspect it will lose out to some unusual choices in a category that’s becoming more interested in subtle effects than obvious ones in recent years.
Peter J. Patrick: This category is kind of weak this year with all the big visual effects releases postponed until they can be released to theatres.
Tripp Burton: Tenet and The Midnight Sky are the two big visual effects-heavy action films here and should be locks for their impressive work. The One and Only Ivan is also effects heavy, and in a category that has welcomed more and more Best Picture nominees, Mank seems like a given too. Welcome to Chechnya would be the first documentary nominated here, but the effects there are not only impressive, but a form of social justice, and it might even win here.
Thomas LaTourette: Without most of the summer blockbuster movies in contention, this makes for a most interesting year. Welcome to Chechnya may make history as the first documentary to get a visual effects nomination.

Best International Feature

• Another Round WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Better Days PP O
• Charlatan TB O
• Collective WL O TB O TL O
• Dear Comrades! New TB F
• I’m No Longer Here PP O
• La Llorona WL O TL O
• Quo Vadis, Aida? New WL F TB O TL O
• A Sun PP O
• Two of Us WL O PP O TL O

Wesley Lovell: Another Round, Collective, and La Llorona have been everywhere this year and could well be on the list. However, with this branch one never knows, which is why I only list Another Round as a sure thing. Anything else could surprise, but I went with two films that either tickle the Academy’s interest in sad films or in unusual titles.
Peter J. Patrick: Another Round is the popular choice here but even that could be usurped in this always surprising category.
Tripp Burton: Another Round seems to be the front-runner here, and Collective and Quo Vadis, Aida? are two critical favorites that don’t seem to have a lot of detractors. Those three seem locked in to me, and I have no idea how the other two slots will go. I will guess maybe Charlatan and Dear Comrades!, each of which have well-known directors with Hollywood connections.
Thomas LaTourette: Having not seen any of these films yet, it is hard to predict. Another Round is the likely winner. It and Quo Vadis, Aida?, seem most likely to be nominated. Night of the Kings and Dear Comrades! seem the most likely to knock one of these out of contention.

Best Documentary Feature

• All In: The Fight for Democracy PP O
• Boys State WL O PP O TB O
• Collective New WL F TB O TL O
• Crip Camp TB O TL O
• Dick Johnson Is Dead WL O
• MLK/FBI PP O TB O
• My Octopus Teacher New WL F New TL F
• Time WL O PP O TL O
• Welcome to Chechnya PP O New TB F TL O

Wesley Lovell: The logical thing would be to make a list without Dick Johnson Is Dead on it since the Academy typically ignores otherwise well praised films. However, I suspect it will make the list alongside oddball title My Octopus Teacher and a handful of others.
Peter J. Patrick: No real idea on this one, just guessing.
Tripp Burton: This is one of my favorite categories every year, and yet I have no idea how they ever will go. Collective seems primed to be a double International Feature/Documentary nominee like Honeyland last year, and the power of the Obamas should lead to Crip Camp following in American Factory’s shoes. Boys State is a high-profile crowd-pleaser, but those don’t always do great here, and I want to cite 76 Days, but it has gotten no precursor love from any guilds. I do think that the timely MLK/FBI will appeal here, as will previous nominee David France’s Welcome to Chechnya.
Thomas LaTourette: I adored My Octopus Teacher which is why it is on the list, though it may be passed over for All In or Boys State which are more topical. The Truffle Hunters could also pull off a nom. It is a fairly wide open category.

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa WL O PP O
• Call Center Blues PP O
• Colette WL O TB O TL O
• A Concerto Is a Conversation WL O TL O
• Do Not Split WL O TB O
• Hunger Ward PP O TB O New TL F
• Hysterical Girl PP O
• A Love Song for Latasha WL O New TB F TL O
• The Speed Cubers TB O
• What Would Sophia Loren Do? PP O TL O

Wesley Lovell: I never quite know how to estimate Academy interest, so I go with the premises that sound most interesting.
Peter J. Patrick: More guessing.
Tripp Burton: Netflix did really well with this shortlist this year, and their films The Speed Cubers and Love Song for Latasha seem like safe bets to move on. Colette is the sort of WWII drama that this branch still loves, and Do Not Split is a powerful documentary that feels very relevant to Americans right now. Hunger Ward is really making a push for itself, and it should also speak very well to voters.
Thomas LaTourette: This category is a total guess as I have seen none of these so far.

Best Animated Short Film

• Burrow WL O PP O TB O
• If Anything Happens I Love You WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Kapaemahu TB O TL O
• Opera PP O TL O
• Out WL O TL O
• The Snail and the Whale PP O TB O TL O
• To Gerard WL O
• Traces WL O PP O TB O

Wesley Lovell: This is another list where I go with the most interesting sounding film, whether that is by title or by subject matter.
Peter J. Patrick: Yet more guessing.
Tripp Burton: Just some real guesses here. Burrow is the only one I’ve seen.
Thomas LaTourette: This is one of the few categories I am not changing from last month, but I know little about these films right now.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Bittu PP O TB O
• Da Yie New TL F
• Feeling Through WL O
• The Human Voice WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Letter Room WL O TB O TL O
• The Present WL O PP O New TL F
• Two Distant Strangers PP O TB O TL O
• The Van TB O
• White Eye WL O PP O

Wesley Lovell: The Academy sometimes nominates unusual things here, so it’s almost impossible to guess sometimes.
Peter J. Patrick: Still more guessing.
Tripp Burton: I’m just guessing here, too.
Thomas LaTourette: I have heard good things about The Human Voice, but the rest is just guesswork at this point.