Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

July 3, 2019

Midsommar

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Could lightning strike twice for Aster? His last film didn’t score any Oscar nominations, but critics gave it a few nominations and wins last year, so it’s entirely possible the same could happen this year. That said, sophomore success is rare and the film will have to significantly win critics over for that to happen, especially without a huge name in the cast.”
Oscar Results: Now None. While Florence Pugh has earned a few citations from critics for her performance, the film just hasn’t picked up much steam and her performance isn’t in the running for Best Actress.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Ari Aster’s debut feature, Hereditary performed well enough for what it was, but didn’t gain true appreciation until late in the year when critics gave it several prizes and nominations. Since this is not a direct sequel to that and must rely on his name to sell it, I suspect that some horror fans wanting to see what he does will be drawn to it, but most everyone else will be turned away by its lack of horror tropes they are familiar with.”
Box Office Results: $27.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Cerebral horror films haven’t always sold tickets and this movie seems to have underperformed even those low expectations

Spider-Man: Far from Home

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Superhero movies all struggle at the Oscars and this is a sequel to a film that wasn’t an Oscar contender. There are lots of effects here, so it could be on the shortlist, but against fellow MCU entry Avengers: Endgame, I cannot see Oscar voters awarding too many superhero movies with so many options out there.”
Oscar Results: Still Uncertain. While the film is still mentioned as a Best Visual Effects contender, that likelihood remains limited.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While the second series about Peter Parker was a far cry from the first and the third started off weaker than the second set, this follow-up feature to Homecoming should easily surpass its predecessor for one major reason: it is widely known that this film caps the most recent phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe and should be setting up the next phase, which could get a lot of people to the theater even if the film looks like it might struggle in the quality department.”
Box Office Results: $390.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] While the status of Spider-Man as a part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe is shifting between yes and no like a see-saw, there’s no doubt that this film’s performance is as a direct result of the good willl left behind of being the final film in the current phase of the storyline.

July 12, 2019

Crawl

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. As the myriad shark-themed horror successes in recent memory show, there’s an affection for critter features at the box office. That said, the trailer came out to positive responses, but there hasn’t been much advertising since, which could deaden its potential.”
Box Office Results: $39 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Creature features haven’t been as popular with audiences as they were in the 1970s, but this performance isn’t bad for a film that got very poor marketing.

Stuber

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There’s no real competition for the weekend and that could give a nudge to this Uber-comedy; however, history has shown that this type of movie rarely ever succeeds and the stars aren’t quite the box office draws of those past successful entries.”
Box Office Results: $22.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The marketing was there, but the audience was not. Neither of this film’s stars are box office magnets and this film will not enhance their reputations.

The Art of Self-Defense (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film has some early positive responses, but it seems like the kind of indie film that sparks and burns quickly.”
Box Office Results: $2.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] For a film that no one expected much of, this box office tally is write at expectations.

July 19, 2019

The Lion King

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The Jungle Book “live-action” adaptation scored an Oscar for Visual Effects under the same director, Jon Favreau. While it might not win this time around, a nomination is almost assured.”
Oscar Results: Still Good. Its BAFTA nomination for Best Visual Effects will renew its chances for a nomination. It might still come up empty-handed, but the likelihood of that is low.
Box Office Prospects: $700 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The original Lion King made over $300 million at the box office in its original run. With its re-releases and adjustments for inflation, the film stands at $672 million. The live-action version of Beauty and the Beast made over $500 million when its original tallied roughly $315 million. While I doubt the same increase will be true for The Lion King, there’s little doubt that it’s one of the most beloved Disney movies of all time and could very easily top its adjusted gross.”
Box Office Results: $543.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] While not as massive a hit as the original Lion King was in its day, there’s no doubt that this is a staggeringly good performance.

July 26, 2019

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Tarantino is on a streak with the Oscars, having picked up major nominations for his last three films. While Hateful Eight didn’t do as well as Inglourious Basterds or Django, this film has a lot of elements that Hollywood loves and considering its strong reception at Cannes, I suspect this will be a major Oscar contender and might even bring Tarantino his much-desired Oscar for directing.”
Oscar Results: Now Guaranteed. Not only will the film be an Oscar nominee, it’s in good standing to earn double-digit nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Apart from three films, Quentin Tarantino hasn’t had a lot of box office hits. With the stars in this one, I suspect it will approach closer to Pulp Fiction‘s initial tally than Django Unchained and the reason for that is that this isn’t quite a story that will appeal to mass audiences. Then again, neither did any of Tarantino’s other box office successes, so if critics fall in line, audiences might as well.”
Box Office Results: $141.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Tarantino has die-hard fans and they certainly turned out for this film, which performed quite well for being a movie that isn’t exactly part of a popular genre these days.