While this group tends to avoid certain types of adaptations, it’s still one of the best prognosticators to the Adapted Screenplay Oscar there is.

USC SCRIPTER AWARDS

Best Adapted Screenplay

Dark Waters
The Irishman (RU:Peter)
Jojo Rabbit (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Little Women (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Two Popes

Wesley Lovell: It’s hard not to imagine Greta Gerwig winning this award for doing something different with Louisa May Alcott’s seminal work than all prior examples. Jojo Rabbit‘s inventiveness might also impress these voters while the other two Oscar nominees could be spoilers.
Peter J. Patrick: Nothing would surprise me, but with all the talk surrounding Greta Gerwig’s adaptation of Little Women, I suspect that has to have a slight edge over The Irishman, its likeliest competition.
Tripp Burton: Until last year, this was quite the streak of Oscar winners winning here first, and that will probably be Greta Gerwig.
Thomas LaTourette: Truthfully four out of the five nominees could win this. Dark Waters is the only one that stands no chance. Early on The Irishman seemed the likely winner, but as time has passed that film seems to have faded in all categories. The Two Popes has an erudite screenplay and would be a worthy winner. I wonder if it will come down to Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. Jojo’s script had the fun addition of Hitler as a boy’s imaginary friend, which was not in the original book. But I wonder if it might go to Greta Gerwig for her intriguing adaptation of Little Women.