The last of the Hollywood televised awards is this weekend and everyone will be watching for what the Screen Actors Guild does. Will they cement the frontrunners or will they throw in a wrench. This is the place to test out theories ahead of the Oscars with the last televised film-only awards, BAFTA, the last say in the race.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

Best Cast

Bombshell (Thomas)
The Irishman (Wesley, Peter)
Jojo Rabbit (RU:Tripp)
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Parasite

Wesley Lovell: 44% of all SAG awards for Best Cast have gone to the largest ensemble on the list. That favors Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. 48% of SAG winners have also gone on to win Best Picture. Having said all that, there’s so little consistency that either of these factors could easily be ignored. Three of these casts have 8 members, one has 10, and the other has 14. While Once Upon a Time… has a good chance at winning, I wouldn’t count out The Irishman simply because of the presence of legendary actors Robert De Niro, Harvey Keitel, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci. That might be just enough to encourage tons of voters to pick them film just because. Any of the others could also win, but this feels like an award custom made for Tarantino’s films. Although, this is only the second of his films that have ever been nominated at the Oscars. Pulp Fiction pre-dates SAG and most of his other films, with the exception of Django Unchained weren’t well enough received to make this list. What matters is that his last nomination for Inglorious Basters won this prize, so will two make a trend? We’ll see.
Peter J. Patrick: This would be the likeliest place for the cast of The Irishman to show up with the cast of Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood right behind them.
Tripp Burton: This is the award that Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood needs to win if it is still going to compete for Best Picture without an editing nomination, and its large cast could still win. If not, Jojo Rabbit could finally win a big award or Parasite could prove a heavy favorite.
Thomas LaTourette: I am going to go out on a limb here and predict Bombshell to win. It has the most nominations from the acting guild and was very much an ensemble film. Though Once Upon a Time will be hard to beat. The industry tends to like pictures about itself, and this definitely is that. Its early release may hurt it some as Bombshell is both topical with Harvey Weinstein back in the news and visible on billboards around the city. It would not surprise me if Once Upon a Time wins, but I will stick with Bombshell.

Best Actor

Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (RU:Peter)
Adam Driver – Marriage Story (Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Taron Egerton – Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: I want to say this is Joaquin Phoenix all the way, especially since he’s never won at SAG, but you also have to remember that SAG is comprised not just of film actors, but also television actors and that might give Adam Driver, who has done significant time on the small screen, an edge. Further, Marriage Story is about actors acting and that might be a potent combo for the members of SAG. That said, I’m going out on a limb to predict Driver and won’t be at all shocked if he goes down, but there is always a shadow of a doubt when it comes to SAG.
Peter J. Patrick: There’s no reason to doubt that Joaquin Phoenix will continue his journey to an Oscar with a another win here. Let’s throw out Leonardo DiCaprio as a long-shot upset.
Tripp Burton: Fresh off a Globe win, Joaquin Phoenix seems to be a dominant front-runner here. I don’t see him losing.
Thomas LaTourette: Actors do love performances where one transforms themselves by gaining or losing a lot of weight. Joaquin Phoenix definitely did that, and brought a lot of emotion to the role. I think the guild voters will eat that up. It just was not a film that appealed to me. Taron Egerton will get some votes, being fresh off his Golden Globe win, but probably not enough to be a factor. Phoenix’s main competition will come from Adam Driver. He is probably better liked in the industry, had four films out last year, two of which he could have been nominated for, and is on his second consecutive nomination. I thought he would be the one to beat, but Phoenix appears to be peaking at just the right time to win.

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Lupita Nyong’o – Us (RU:Wesley)
Charlize Theron – Bombshell (RU:Thomas)
Renée Zellweger – Judy (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: While Renée Zellweger is the frontrunner here for playing legendary chanteuse/actress Judy Garland, she has three SAG awards total, two for Chicago (as part of the ensemble and as lead actress) and Cold Mountain, the role that won her the Oscar. That gives a small in for someone else to sneak in a victory. Charlize Theron could be the beneficiary, as could Scarlett Johansson, but my pick for spoiler is Lupita Nyong’o who has won more precursors than almost anyone else this year and Us is the kind of film these voters actually might have seen and won’t be afraid to recognize. Zellweger still has the edge, but it may not be a solid one, especially since her film just wasn’t that great.
Peter J. Patrick: Renée Zellweger is seemingly invincible, but the popular Scarlett Johansson could be an upset winner.
Tripp Burton: Zellweger seems ripe for a loss, but there is no one poised to do so. She is the weakest of the four frontrunners, but is still in a solid lead.
Thomas LaTourette: This award has belonged to Renee Zellweger since Judy premiered, and I still do not see anyone really competing against her for it. She was remarkable as Judy Garland, impressing with both her acting and her singing. The others are all good but none has had the impact of Zellwegger. Lupita Nyong’o gave a striking performance in a type of film that usually does not win awards, and will probably have to be content with the nomination. Erivo and Johansson just do not have the traction to pull it off. Charlize Theron comes closest with her transformation into Megyn Kelly in Bombshell. She was also superb, but is up against too stiff a competitor to win this year. Zellweger continues her comeback.

Best Supporting Actor

Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Joe Pesci – The Irishman (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Brad Pitt doesn’t seem like he has anyone standing in his way unless it’s everyman Tom Hanks who has had a lengthy career on the big and small screen and may just be a bit of catnip for all of the younger actors who’ve been inspired by his lifetime achievement. Hanks has eight prior nominations and two awards, though that was in the early days of SAG, so most voters might have forgotten. Pitt is leading, but a spoiler always waits.
Peter J. Patrick: Brad Pitt has this in the bag with Joe Pesci another long-shot runner-up.
Tripp Burton: The applause when Pitt won at the Globes only goes to show how much voters want to see him win.
Thomas LaTourette: Joe Pesci gave the performance of his career in The Irishman, but it will not be enough to win. Brad Pitt has dominated this category, even though he does not seem to be campaigning. He will easily go on to win this one too.

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern – Marriage Story (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
Nicole Kidman – Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Margot Robbie – Bombshell (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: While Laura Dern has the majority of awards this season, she’s a bit softer than others because although everyone knows and loves her, her performance might not be actorly enough. Margot Robbie could surprise, or SAG voters could react to the Oscar nominations and go for non-nominated Jennifer Lopez to make a statement. This is one that will go down to the wire.
Peter J. Patrick: Laura Dern should make it 4 for 4 among this year’s easy-to-predict winners with Oscar-ignored Jennifer Lopez a distant second in the voting.
Tripp Burton: Despite her lack of an Oscar nomination, could Jennifer Lopez win a popular vote here with all those AFTRA voters? Possible, but I will play it safe with Laura Dern.
Thomas LaTourette: When Laura Dern won the Golden Globe, it cemented her as the front runner in this category. At this point I do not see any of the other nominees winning over her. Margot Robbie was impressive in Bombshell and is probably her strongest competition. Though the one person who might beat her would be Jennifer Lopez. If enough people waited to turn in their ballots until after the Oscar nominations had come out, she might get the sympathy vote for the snub from the Academy. I think that unlikely and thoroughly expect Dern to win.

Best Stunt Ensemble

Avengers: Endgame (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Ford v Ferrari (Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Irishman
Joker (Peter)
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: This category isn’t always easy to predict, but I’m going to go with Once Upon a Time for the win because SAG nominee Brad Pitt plays a stuntman. That might be a bit too on the nose and the car crashes of ford v Ferrari or the massive battle sequences in Avengers: Endgame might easily win as well. Interestingly, only four films have ever been nominated for both stunt ensemble and motion picture cast. Les Misérables lost to Skyfall in 2012, Black Panther won both awards last year, and The Irishman and Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood are both nominated this year. Les Mis didn’t win the cast award either, so if a trend is about to develop, then a double win for Once Upon a Time… might start it.
Peter J. Patrick: I’ve no idea, but let’s assume they’ll want to spread the wealth and give it something different such as Joker or Ford v Ferrari.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea. A guess.
Thomas LaTourette: This will probably come down to Avengers: Endgame versus Ford v Ferrari as their stunt ensembles had the most to do. I am predicting that Avengers to win, based on the fact that they employed a larger ensemble.