This award may speak more to the eventual Oscar winner than anything as it’s one of the most accurate. That said, it could correspond with either Best Picture or Best Directing at the Oscars or both.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Director

Bong Joon-ho – Parasite (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Sam Mendes – 1917 (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino – One Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit

Wesley Lovell: Going with who I think will eventually win the Oscar. Sam Mendes would be a two-time winner, which might hurt him and Bong Joon Ho is a very popular director after a handful of hits. That said, 1917 may be perceived as the more complex film to orchestrate and thus earn the prize.
Peter J. Patrick: Mendes has the momentum, but everyone loves Bong at the moment even more than Scorsese or Tarantino so it seems a bit of a toss-up to me.
Tripp Burton: Director Bong is so beloved in Hollywood right now and I don’t see him losing here. If Mendes wins, then 1917 is a formidable front-runner.
Thomas LaTourette: This one gives me pause. At this point I do not think that The Irishman, Once Upon a Time, and Jojo Rabbit will be factors even though I had expected them to be. Sam Mendes has been on a roll with 1917, but Parasite has been getting a lot of notice too, including winning the cast award from SAG. Could Bong Joon-Ho win? Possibly. Will he? That is the bigger question. And if he wins here, can he win the Oscar? I think it will still go to Mendes for 1917, but I am not certain of that. If it does not, then the Oscars will be thrown wide open. I will predict 1917, but would not be surprised if Parasite pulls an upset.

Best First Feature

Mati Diop – Atlantics
Alma Har’el – Honey Boy (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Melina Matsoukas – Queen and Slim (Wesley)
Tyler Nilson, Michael Schwartz – The Peanut Butter Falcon (RU:Peter)
Joe Talbot – The Last Black Man in San Franicsco (Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: With the most obvious winner, Olivia Wilde, shockingly not nominated, the field is open wide. Joe Talbo, Melina Matsoukas, Alma Har’el, and Mati Diop all seem like potential winners, so it could go any different way.
Peter J. Patrick: Could go to any of the nominees, but if I had a vote it would go to Talbot whose film I can’t get out of my head.
Tripp Burton: This is a strong category, but no one here really had much traction outside of this category this year. Seems like Talbot or Har’el are the highest profile here.
Thomas LaTourette: Honey Boy has gotten more press than the others, so I could see Alma Har’el winning. If not, then most of the others could easily win, though I would think that The Peanut Butter Falcon stands the least chance.

Best Documentary Director

American Factory (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
The Cave (RU:Tripp)
Maiden
Honeyland (Wesley, RU:Peter)
One Child Nation (Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Honeyland was the first documentary ever nominated for International Film at the Oscars suggesting that it’s a strong narrative film as well, meaning directors might be more inclined to vote for it over the others, though I wouldn’t be shocked at any victory here.
Peter J. Patrick: Just a guess.
Tripp Burton: The personal touch of One Child Nation seems to be the leader here, but any of these are worthy (and possible) winners.
Thomas LaTourette: American Factory is the likely winner in the Oscars, so I will predict it to win here too.