As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

As Spring turns into Summer, thoughts of next year’s Oscars start trickling into our subconscious thoughts. With our first predictions, it’s always interesting to see where everyone stands, where the early consensus is, and then compare later to the end results. Looking at only six categories (Picture, Directing, and the four acting awards), it’s interesting to note that six films make all four of our lists. Another fifteen appear on three. Out of a total of 35 potential nomination slots, that’s a surprisingly strong group of aligned predictions. We’ll see how things change over the months as we hope to have new predictions up every month through the end of the year, adding more categories as we go.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: There are a lot of unknowns going into this race, like which films will be good enough to compete and which performances that we think could be contenders will actually be contenders. At this juncture, it’s possible for hunches to pan out, but also likely that hunches are wrong. It’s still a fun exercise.
Peter J. Patrick: We really don’t know much at this point. I don’t know if we’ll know much more after Cannes. For now, my predictions are top heavy with actors, directors, and projects of perceived quality. There are no Netflix productions in my predictions. Time will tell how long I can reasonably hold out on that.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: It has not been that long since the last Oscars, and here we are trying to predict the next set. Doing this so early in the year means that we are basically just going by hearsay about the films as few have been released that are under contention already. Probably a number of these will not make the final cut, as there are always some early favorites that bomb and some unexpected films that rise with time. It will be interesting to see how it plays out over time.

Best Picture

• 1917 New WL O New PP O New TB O
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Cats New WL O
• Clemency New PP O
• Dry Run New TB O
• Fair & Balanced New TL O
• Ford v. Ferrari New PP O
• The Goldfinch New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Harriet New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Irishman New WL O New TB O New TL O
• Late Night New TB O
• The Laundromat New TL O
• Little Women New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood New WL O New PP O New TL O
• The Report New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Rocketman New TL O
• Toy Story 4 New TB O
• Us New WL O
• The Woman in the Window New PP O New TB O
• Yesterday New WL O

Best Director

• 1917 – Sam Mendes New TB O
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – Marielle Heller New PP O New TB O
• Cats – Tom Hooper New WL O
• Dry Run – Todd Haynes New TB O
• Fair & Balanced – Jay Roach New TL TL O
• Ford v. Ferrari – James Mangold New PP O
• The Goldfinch – John Crowley New PP O
• Harriet – Kasi Lemmons New WL O New PP O New TB O
• The Irishman – Martin Scorsese New WL O New TB O New TL TL O
• Little Women – Greta Gerwig New WL O New TL TL O
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino New WL O New PP O New TL TL O
• The Goldfinch – John Crawley New TL TL O

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari New PP O
• Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory New TB O
• Robert De Niro – The Irishman New WL O New TL TL O
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood New PP O New TL TL O
• Adam Driver – The Report New TB O
• Taron Egerton – Rocketman New WL O New TB O New TL TL O
• Ansel Elgort – The Goldfinch New PP O
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL TL O
• John Lithgow – Fair & Balanced New TL TL O
• Ian McKellen – The Good Liar New WL O New PP O
• Dev Patel – The Personal History of David Copperfield New TB O
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood New WL O

Best Actress

• Amy Adams – The Woman in the Window New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Awkwafina – The Farewell New WL O New TB O New TL TL O
• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL TL O
• Julianne Moore – Gloria Bell New WL O
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women New PP O New TB O New TL TL O
• Meryl Streep – The Laundromat New TB O
• Alfre Woodard – Clemency New PP O
• Renée Zellweger – Judy New WL O New PP O New TL TL O

Best Supporting Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Little Women New WL O New TL O
• Benedict Cumberbatch – 1917 New PP O
• Harvey Keitel – The Irishman New WL O
• John Lithgow – Fair & Balanced New TB O
• Leslie Odom Jr. – Harriet New PP O New TB O New TL TL O
• Gary Oldman – The Laundromat New TB O
• Gary Oldman – The Woman in the Window New WL O
• Al Pacino – The Irishman New WL O New TL TL O
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman New WL O New TB O
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood New PP O
• Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood New PP O New TL TL O
• Luke Wilson – The Goldfinch New PP O
• Jeffrey Wright – The Goldfinch New TB O New TL TL O

Best Supporting Actress

• Annette Bening – The Report New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Laura Dern – Little Women New WL O New PP O
• Jennifer Hudson – Cats New TB O
• Nicole Kidman – The Goldfinch New PP O
• Janelle Monae – Harriet New TL TL O
• Anna Paquin – The Irishman New WL O
• Sarah Paulson – The Goldfinch New WL O
• Margot Robbie – Fair & Balanced New TB O
• Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood New WL O New PP O New TL TL O
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women New WL O
• Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey New PP O New TL TL O
• Emma Thompson – Late Night New TB O
• Emma Watson – Little Women New TB O New TL TL O