As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

With Telluride, Toronto, and Venice in the rear view mirror, Oscar season has shifted to its final stretch before the critics awards. In this timeframe, we should learn more about the films no one has seen yet (The Irishman, Little Women, and 1917 specifically). Those three films could upend some of the conversation that’s come out of the festival circuit, namely the emergence of films like Waves, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes, Just Mercy, Marriage Story, and more. While our predictions have are now sitting on a better foundation of critical response, our selections have widened, with Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress becoming far more polarized than they had been previously. We have added one new category to the list: Cinematography

KEY:

(P) = Post-Festival (September) Predictions

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Harriet and The Goldfinch have faded while Jojo Rabbit, Waves, and Hustlers have emerged in better positions for Oscar dominance. While a lot of my winner predictions haven’t changed yet, several nominations have and even more hopefuls have shown up. We’ll see how things look in early December when the critics groups have their say.
Peter J. Patrick: Although the three film festivals (Telluride, Venice and Toronto) that typically signal the start of awards season have come and gone, things are still pretty much up in the air with no clear front-runner in any category. That could make for a more diverse awards season than we have seen in some time.
Tripp Burton: Post festival and everything is almost more confused than it was before!
Thomas LaTourette: There is major movement in my predictions for this month as the slew of films premiering at the big film festivals do make the picture a little clearer. Some films may be critics’ darlings, but that may not translate to Oscar nominations. Whereas other films like The Goldfinch did not do well by the critics and will certainly fade. I hated to drop some favorite performers off my list like Taron Egerton from Rocketman and Alfre Woodard from Clemency, but newer faces are popping up. I do find it amazing that Jennifer Lopez has made my list, as she is garnering great reviews for Hustlers. I am dubious that she will last, but time will tell. There are a lot of new films on my list like Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, Joker, and Marriage Story that had not been on my radar until now. It will be interesting to see if they stay on my list in the upcoming months, but this should be closer to a final list than the earlier predictions. The fall is always an exciting time as there are more films opening that stand a chance to be in the running. There will be a lot of movies to see in the near future, though many will not open until Christmas or even later for those of us not on the coasts. But this is an exciting time.

Best Picture

• 1917 WL O PP O TB O TL J
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Bombshell New WL P
• The Farewell WL M
• Ford v. Ferrari PP O TB M TL J
• The Irishman WL O PP J TB O TL O
• Jojo Rabbit New WL P New TL P
• Joker New PP P New TL P
• Just Mercy New TB P
• Little Women WL O PP A TB O TL O
• Marriage Story New WL P PP A TB A New TL P
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB A TL O
• Parasite New PP P New TB P New TL P
• The Two Popes New PP P New TB P
• Waves New WL P

Best Animated Feature

• The Addams Family WL O PP O
• Frozen II WL O PP O TB O TL O
• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World WL O
• Missing Link WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon TL M
• The Swallows of Kabul TB O
• Toy Story 4 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Weathering with You New PP P New TL P
• White Snake TB O

Best Director

• 1917 – Sam Mendes PP J New TL P
• The Irishman – Martin Scorsese WL O PP J TB O TL O
• Little Women – Greta Gerwig WL O New TB P TL O
• Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach New WL P PP A New TB P
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino WL O PP O TB A TL O
• Parasite – Joon-ho Bong TB A New TL P
• The Two Popes – Fernando Meirelles New PP P
• Waves – Trey Edward Shults New WL P

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari TB M
• Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory WL A PP J TB O New TL P
• Robert De Niro – The Irishman WL O TL O
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood PP O New TB P TL O
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story New WL P PP A New TB P New TL P
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood WL O
• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker New WL P New PP P New TL P
• Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes New PP P New TB P

Best Actress

• Awkwafina – The Farewell WL O TB O TL O
• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story PP A New TB P New TL P
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell New WL P
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women WL A PP O TB O TL O
• Meryl Streep – The Laundromat TB O
• Alfre Woodard – Clemency PP O
• Renée Zellweger – Judy WL O PP M TL O

Best Supporting Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Little Women WL O
• Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse New PP P New TL P
• Matt Damon – Ford v. Ferrari WL M
• Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy New WL P New TB P
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood New PP P New TB P New TL P
• Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes New PP P New TL P
• Harvey Keitel – The Irishman WL O
• John Lithgow – Bombshell TB O
• Al Pacino – The Irishman WL O PP J TL O
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman TB O
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood PP A TB A TL M

Best Supporting Actress

• Annette Bening – The Report New WL P PP O TB O TL O
• Judi Dench – Cats TB A
• Laura Dern – Little Women WL O
• Laura Dern – Marriage Story PP A New TB P TL M
• Renée Elise Goldsberry – Waves New WL P
• Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers New TL P
• Florence Pugh – Little Women PP M
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell TB O
• Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O TL O
• Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey PP O
• Meryl Streep – The Laundromat PP A
• Zhao Suzhen – The Farewell New TL P
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell New WL P
• Emma Watson – Little Women TB O

Best Original Screenplay

• 1917 PP O
• Bombshell New WL P
• The Farewell WL O TB O TL O
• Marriage Story New WL P PP O TB O TL O
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Parasite New PP P New TB P New TL P
• The Two Popes New PP P New TB P New TL P
• Waves New WL P

Best Adapted Screenplay

• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood TB O New TL P
• Ford v. Ferrari PP O TB O
• The Irishman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Jojo Rabbit New WL P New PP P TB O New TL P
• Joker New TL P
• Just Mercy New WL P
• The Laundromat New WL P
• Little Women WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Motherless Brooklyn PP O

Best Cinematography

• 1917 New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Ad Astra New WL O New TL O
• Dark Waters New WL O
• Ford v. Ferrari New PP O New TB O New TL O
• A Hidden Life New TB O
• The Irishman New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Joker New PP O
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O

Best Visual Effects

• Ad Astra PP O TB O New TL P
• Avengers: Endgame WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Cats TB O
• Gemini Man WL O
• The Irishman PP O New TL P
• The Lion King WL O TB O TL O
• Midway WL O
• Spider-Man: Far from Home PP O
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker WL O PP O TB O TL O