The first precursors will be going out in just over a month, which means our predictions are becoming more and more solid. Although there’s still a lot of disagreement until the critics start weighing in, most of the categories differ only slightly. That is except Supporting Actress, which seems to be all over the place still.

Below are our predictions for October adding in the Film Editing award predictions as well.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Apart from ditching films like The Goldfinch and Gemini Man, I haven’t had a lot of changes of heart so far, so my predictions are largely the same.
Peter J. Patrick: The toughest categories to whittle down to size at this point are Best Actor and Supporting Actor, both of which have six major contenders, the five I listed in each plus Joaquin Phoenix in Joker for Actor and Joe Pesci in The Irishman for Supporting Actor. While none of the categories are reasonably certain yet, the toughest to fill is Supporting Actress which remains incredibly weak.
Tripp Burton: Not a whole lot of change from last month to this, as we wait on audience reactions in the next month to start whittling out more contenders. Still, I don’t think Joker or Jojo Rabbit will hold up with voters as well as everyone else does.
Thomas LaTourette: This time I just have minor tweaks to my predictions, with at most one change per category. Not as many movies have opened in the past month, and some spots are now solidifying. As always there is lots of second guessing. Probably the category I wonder about most is Animated Feature. None of the films I have seen this year have blown me away, and several have disappointed. This makes me wonder about the upcoming films and whether they will win out over the series of sequels that are out. It may take a while for the independent films to finally open in Denver, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Best Picture

• 1917 WL O PP O TB O TL J
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Bombshell WL P
• The Farewell WL M New TL C
• Ford v. Ferrari PP O TB M TL J
• The Irishman WL O PP J TB O TL O
• Jojo Rabbit WL P New PP C TL P
• Just Mercy TB P
• Little Women WL O PP A TB O TL O
• Marriage Story WL P PP A TB A TL P
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB A TL O
• Parasite PP P TB P TL P
• The Two Popes PP P TB P
• Waves WL P

Best Animated Feature

• Abominable New WL C
• The Addams Family PP O
• Frozen II WL O PP O TB O TL O
• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World New PP C
• Missing Link WL O TB O TL O
• Promare New TB C
• Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon TL M
• The Swallows of Kabul New WL C TB O
• Toy Story 4 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Weathering with You PP P TL P

Best Director

• 1917 – Sam Mendes PP J TL P
• The Irishman – Martin Scorsese WL O PP J TB O TL O
• Little Women – Greta Gerwig WL O TB P
• Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach WL P PP A TB P New TL C
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino WL O PP O TB A TL O
• Parasite – Joon-ho Bong TB A TL P
• The Two Popes – Fernando Meirelles PP P
• Waves – Trey Edward Shults WL P

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari TB M
• Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory WL A PP J TB O
• Sterling K. Brown – Waves New WL C
• Robert De Niro – The Irishman WL O New PP C TL O
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood PP O TL O
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story WL P PP A TB P TL P
• Taron Egerton – Rocketman Returned TB C
• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker WL P TL P
• Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes PP P TB P New TL C

Best Actress

• Awkwafina – The Farewell WL O TB O TL O
• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet WL O PP O TL O
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story PP A TB P TL P
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell WL P
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women WL A PP O TB O TL O
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell New PP C New TB C
• Renée Zellweger – Judy WL O PP M New TB C TL O

Best Supporting Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Little Women WL O
• Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse PP P
• Matt Damon – Ford v. Ferrari WL M
• Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy WL P TB P
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood PP P TB P TL P
• Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes PP P TL P
• John Lithgow – Bombshell New WL C TB O
• Al Pacino – The Irishman WL O PP J TL O
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman TB O New TL C
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood PP A TB A TL M

Best Supporting Actress

• Annette Bening – The Report WL P TB O TL O
• Laura Dern – Marriage Story New WL C PP A TB P TL M
• Renée Elise Goldsberry – Waves WL P
• Allison Janney – Bombshell New PP C
• Nicole Kidman – Bombshell New WL C
• Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers TL P
• Florence Pugh – Little Women PP M
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell TB O
• Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood TL O
• Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey PP O
• Meryl Streep – Little Women New TB C
• Zhao Suzhen – The Farewell TL P
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell WL P
• Alanna Ubach – Bombshell New PP C
• Emma Watson – Little Women TB O

Best Original Screenplay

• 1917 PP O New TL C
• Bombshell WL P
• The Farewell WL O New PP C TL O
• Marriage Story WL P PP O TB O TL O
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Pain & Glory New TB C
• Parasite PP P TB P TL P
• The Two Popes TB P
• Waves WL P

Best Adapted Screenplay

• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood TB O TL P
• Downton Abbey New PP C
• Ford v. Ferrari TB O
• The Irishman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Jojo Rabbit WL P PP P TB O TL P
• Judy New PP C
• Just Mercy WL P
• The Laundromat WL P
• Little Women WL O TB O TL O
• The Two Popes New PP C New TL C

Best Film Editing

• 1917 New WL O New PP O New TL O
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood New TB O
• Ford v. Ferrari New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Irishman New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Little Women New WL O
• Marriage Story New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Parasite New TB O
• Waves New WL O

Best Cinematography

• 1917 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Ad Astra WL O TL O
• Dark Waters WL O
• Ford v. Ferrari PP O TB O TL O
• The Irishman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Lighthouse New PP C
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB O TL O

Best Visual Effects

• Ad Astra New WL C PP O TB O TL P
• Avengers: Endgame WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Irishman PP O New TB C TL P
• The Lion King WL O TB O TL O
• Midway WL O
• Spider-Man: Far from Home PP O
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker WL O PP O TB O TL O