As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

We’re in something of a holding pattern until the critics start announcing their winners later this month and throughout December. This will be at truncated season due to the timing of this year’s Oscars, so there might be more carbon-copying critic selections than ever before. We’ll see how things go. These are our final predictions before the precursors start arriving. Mid-December, we’ll have our first look at how things are shaping up with a large number of precursors announced. See our contributors’ commentaries below to see what may or may not have changed.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: I’ve made a few minor adjustments here and there, but most everything has stayed the same. The only sizable change was the removal of The Laundromat from all but one category, because you can never count out Meryl Streep. I’ve also added all 159 documentary features to the list, though that should be narrowed down soon when the shortlists are announced. Also, it appears I’m not on the correct page with regard to Charlize Theron and Margot Robbie, whom I have switched in the acting categories. The trailer made it seem like it was Robbie’s story, but I could easily be convinced otherwise. Then there’s Ford v Ferrari in film editing that I feel I should have done, but didn’t. I’ve also gone out on a limb for a number of contenders, including Just Mercy, Dark Waters, and especially Waves, which no one sees as much of a contender but me.
Peter J. Patrick: With a few major releases yet to occur and the precursors yet to be announced, we’re in a holding pattern with not much changing from last month. Bong Joon-ho makes my list in Directing for the first time. Joe Pesci makes my list in Supporting Actor for the first time. Annette Bening returns in Supporting Actress and Jennifer Lopez makes my list in Supporting Actress for the first time.
Tripp Burton: For the last time, there is not a lot of change in these. In the next few weeks we will have an idea of how strong a lot of these contenders really are.
Thomas LaTourette: Once again I am just making minor tweaks to my predictions. I changed some categories by one, but several stayed the same from last month. Bombshell previewed to strong reviews, which could make it a possibility for actress and supporting actress. It was strange to move my prediction for Margot Robbie over from Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood to Bombshell, but the newer film may keep her more in the awards spotlight. Animated Feature is still one of the hardest to predict, especially as the Academy can make some odd choices. The Golden Globes will be announced by the time we do our next predictions, so that may change our minds some. We are getting close to Oscar season now, which makes this more exciting.

Best Picture

• 1917 WL O PP O TB O TL J
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood WL O PP O TB O
• Bombshell WL P
• The Farewell Returned TB N TL C
• Ford v. Ferrari New WL N PP O TB M TL J
• The Irishman WL O PP J TB O TL O
• Jojo Rabbit WL P PP C TL P
• Little Women WL O PP A TB O TL O
• Marriage Story WL P PP A TB A TL P
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB A TL O
• Parasite PP P TB P TL P
• The Two Popes PP P TB P New TL N
• Waves WL P

Best Animated Feature

• Abominable WL C
• The Addams Family PP O
• Frozen II WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Funan New PP N
• I Lost My Body New TL N
• Missing Link WL O Returned PP N TB O TL O
• Promare TB C
• The Swallows of Kabul WL C TB O
• Toy Story 4 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Weathering with You TL P

Best Directing

• 1917 – Sam Mendes PP J TL P
• The Irishman – Martin Scorsese WL O PP J TB O TL O
• Little Women – Greta Gerwig WL O TB P
• Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach WL P TB P TL C
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino WL O PP O TB A TL O
• Parasite – Joon-ho Bong New PP N TB A TL P
• The Two Popes – Fernando Meirelles PP P
• Waves – Trey Edward Shults WL P

Best Actor

• Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory WL A PP J TB O
• Robert De Niro – The Irishman WL O PP C TL O
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood PP O TL O
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story WL P PP A TB P TL P
• Taron Egerton – Rocketman TB C
• Michael B. Jordan – Just Mercy New WL N
• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker WL P New TB N TL P
• Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes PP P TB P TL C

Best Actress

• Awkwafina – The Farewell TB O TL O
• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet WL O PP O
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story New WL N PP A TB P TL P
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell WL P
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women WL A PP O TB O TL O
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell PP C TB C New TL N
• Renée Zellweger – Judy WL O PP M TB C TL O

Best Supporting Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Little Women WL O
• Matt Damon – Ford v. Ferrari WL M
• Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy WL P TB P
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood PP P TB P TL P
• Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes PP P TL P
• John Lithgow – Bombshell WL C TB O
• Al Pacino – The Irishman WL O PP J TL O
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman Returned PP N TB O TL C
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood PP A TB A TL M

Best Supporting Actress

• Annette Bening – The Report WL P Returned PP N TB O
• Laura Dern – Marriage Story WL C PP A TB P TL M
• Renée Elise Goldsberry – Waves WL P
• Nicole Kidman – Bombshell WL C
• Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers New PP N TL P
• Florence Pugh – Little Women PP M New TB N New TL N
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell TB O New TL N
• Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey PP O
• Meryl Streep – Little Women TB C
• Zhao Suzhen – The Farewell TL P
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell WL P

Best Original Screenplay

• 1917 PP O
• Bombshell WL P
• The Farewell WL O PP C TL O
• Marriage Story WL P PP O TB O TL O
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Pain & Glory TB C New TL N
• Parasite PP P TB P TL P
• The Two Popes TB P
• Waves WL P

Best Adapted Screenplay

• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood TB O TL P
• Dark Waters New WL N
• Downton Abbey PP C
• Ford v. Ferrari TB O
• The Irishman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Jojo Rabbit WL P PP P TB O TL P
• Judy PP C
• Just Mercy WL P
• Little Women WL O TB O TL O
• The Two Popes PP C TL C

Best Film Editing

• 1917 WL O PP O New TB N TL O
• Ford v. Ferrari PP O TB O TL O
• The Irishman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Little Women WL O
• Marriage Story PP O TB O TL O
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TL O
• Parasite TB O
• Waves WL O

Best Cinematography

• 1917 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Dark Waters WL O
• Ford v. Ferrari PP O TB O TL O
• A Hidden Life TB O
• The Irishman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Lighthouse PP C New TL N
• Marriage Story New WL N
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB O TL O

Best Visual Effects

• Ad Astra WL C PP O TL P
• Avengers: Endgame WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Gemini Man New TB N
• The Irishman New WL N PP O TB C TL P
• The Lion King WL O TB O TL O
• Spider-Man: Far from Home PP O
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker WL O PP O TB O TL O