We’re back for our mid-year look at the state of the Oscar race. While a lot of things are still rather fluid, a few titles continue to show up each month on our predictions list. This month we’re adding Best Visual Effects with two films, Avengers: Endgame and Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker both debuting with unified predictions. Little has changed this month, though Woman in the Window has been pushed to 2020, which removed it from a number of our predictions. Otherwise, it’s just a lot of hemming and hawing from prior months.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Apart from removing both Woman in the Window (shifting to 2020) and Yesterday (flopped with critics) from my predictions, much of what I had put down before has stayed the same with a handful of new items on the list.
Peter J. Patrick: We still do not have a clear picture of what year-end will look like. Aside from adding my predictions for Visual Effects, my only changes are 1) bringing Renée Zellweger back in place of Helen Mirren who I added in her place last month and 2) replacing Laura Dern with her Little Women co-star, Florence Pugh.
Tripp Burton: Not much of a change, although a few things moving in and out of 2019 precipitate some changes. Late Night wasn’t the hit I thought it would be, which shows what a crapshoot these early predictions can be.
Thomas LaTourette: Once again, I do not have too much movement on my films since last month, with rarely more than one change per category. A couple films are new to the list, like Clemency, which sounds like it may have a career best performance by Alfre Woodard. Whereas The Woman in the Window has been pushed back until 2020, so it is now out of the running. It is still difficult to try to decide what category certain actors will be placed in, either lead or supporting. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v Ferrari, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood all have actors that could go either way. I dropped Brad Pitt to supporting for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but am unsure if that is where he should be. It will be interesting to watch that play out over time. The inclusion this month of Visual Effects adds some drama for the films that are opening right now, as many of the nominees are summer releases. As always, we will just have to wait and see.

Best Picture

• 1917 WL O PP O TB O TL J
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Cats WL O
• Clemency PP O
• Dry Run TB O
• The Farewell New WL M New TB M
• Ford v. Ferrari PP O New TB M TL J
• The Goldfinch WL O PP O TL O
• Harriet WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Irishman WL O PP J TB O TL O
• The Laundromat New PP M TL O
• Little Women WL O TB O TL O
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood WL O PP O TL O
• The Report PP O TB O TL O
• Toy Story 4 TB O
• Us WL O

Best Animated Feature

• The Addams Family WL O PP O TL O
• Frozen 2 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World WL O
• Missing Link WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon PP O New TL M
• The Swallos of Kabul TB O
• Toy Story 4 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• White Snake TB O

Best Directing

• 1917 – Sam Mendes PP J TB O
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – Marielle Heller PP O TB O
• Cats – Tom Hooper WL O
• Dry Run – Todd Haynes TB O
• The Goldfinch – John Crowley TL O
• Harriet – Kasi Lemmons WL O PP O TB O TL J
• The Irishman – Martin Scorsese WL O PP J TB O TL O
• Little Women – Greta Gerwig WL O TL O
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino WL O PP O TL O

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari New TB M
• Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory PP J TB O
• Robert De Niro – The Irishman WL O TL O
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood PP O TL O
• Adam Driver – The Report TB O
• Taron Egerton – Rocketman WL O TB O TL O
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Ian McKellen – The Good Liar WL O PP O New TL M
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood WL O PP J

Best Actress

• Awkwafina – The Farewell WL O TB O TL O
• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Helen Mirren – The Good Liar New WL M
• Julianne Moore – Gloria Bell WL O
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women PP O TB O TL O
• Meryl Streep – The Laundromat PP J TB O
• Alfre Woodard – Clemency PP O New TB M New TL M
• Renée Zellweger – Judy WL O New PP M TL O

Best Supporting Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Little Women WL O TL O
• Benedict Cumberbatch – 1917 PP O
• Willem Dafoe – The Last Thing He Wanted PP J
• Matt Damon – Ford v. Ferrari New WL M
• Harvey Keitel – The Irishman WL O
• John Lithgow – Fair & Balanced TB O
• Leslie Odom Jr. – Harriet PP O TB O TL O
• Gary Oldman – The Laundromat TB O
• Al Pacino – The Irishman WL O PP J TL O
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman WL O TB O
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood New TL M
• Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood PP O TL O
• Jeffrey Wright – The Goldfinch TB O

Best Supporting Actress

• Annette Bening – The Report PP O TB O TL O
• Laura Dern – Little Women WL O
• Laura Dern – Untitled Noah Baumbach Project New TL M
• Jennifer Hudson – Cats TB O
• Nicole Kidman – The Goldfinch New WL M PP O New TL M
• Janelle Monae – Harriet New TB M
• Sarah Paulson – The Goldfinch WL O
• Florence Pugh – Little Women New PP M
• Margot Robbie – Fair & Balanced TB O
• Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood WL O PP O TL O
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women WL O
• Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey PP O
• Emma Watson – Little Women TB O TL O

Best Visual Effects

• Ad Astra New PP O New TB O
• Avengers: Endgame New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Captain Marvel New TL O
• Cats New TB O
• Gemini Man New WL O New TL O
• The Irishman New PP O
• The Lion King New WL O New TB O New TL O
• Midway New WL O
• Spider-Man: Far from Home New PP O
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O