As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

For our second month of predictions, we look at how little has changed. With few films having been released to give us a glimpse into the fall, the only notable is that The Irishman may be delayed due to some last-minute de-aging effects. That could completely change our predictions. For now, however, we seem fairly unified on its inclusion, though not much agreement for many other films.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: There isn’t much that’s changed this month. I pulled films like Ad Astra and Gemini Man from my Hopefuls page, but they weren’t nominees in many places, so there aren’t a lot of changes this month.
Peter J. Patrick: The 2019 Cannes Film Festival has come and gone with Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood the only Oscar hopeful to gain traction. As has become the norm, we aren’t likely to really know anything for sure until the fall. In the meantime, I’ve given up the ghost and recognized a few Netflix entries as inevitable starting with Scorsese’s The Irishman and Soderbergh’s The Laundromat.
Tripp Burton: Not much has changed since last month. Cannes didn’t do a whole lot to solidify the major categories and nothing that has come out yet that seems to be screaming for attention. It’s going to be a busy second half of the year!
Thomas LaTourette: I do not have too much movement on my films since last month, with rarely more than one change per category and many with none. Some films have opened to not such great reviews, like Rocketman, which caused it to move off the best picture list. Whereas Once Upon a Time in Hollywood did so well at Cannes that it seems a certain qualifier. Most of the rest of the guesses are just that at this time – guesses. It is more that certain films have a cachet because of the director or stars which make them seem likely to do well. Of course that will not always be the case, but we do our best. One of the more intriguing things now is trying to decide what category certain actors will be placed in, either lead or supporting. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Fair and Balanced, Ford v Ferrari, The Laundromat, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood all have actors that could go either way. I dropped John Lithgow to supporting for Fair and Balanced, but am unsure where others will eventually end up. It will be interesting to watch that play out over time. The inclusion this month of Animated Feature does make me wonder how much room there will be for sequels. Toy Story 4 seems assured of a spot, if not a win. The third How to Train Your Dragon opened to such strong reviews that it should also make the cut. And sight unseen, one assumes Frozen 2 will also get a spot. That makes me think that the last two spots will have to go to original films, but I am less certain what will fill those places. As always, we will just have to wait and see.

Best Picture

• 1917 WL O PP O TB O New TL J
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Cats WL O
• Clemency PP O
• Dry Run TB O
• Ford v. Ferrari PP O New TL J
• The Goldfinch WL O PP O TL O
• Harriet WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Irishman WL O New PP J TB O TL O
• Late Night New PP J TB O
• The Laundromat TL O
• Little Women WL O TB O TL O
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood WL O PP O TL O
• The Report PP O TB O TL O
• Toy Story 4 TB O
• Us WL O
• The Woman in the Window TB O
• Yesterday WL O

Best Animated Feature

• The Addams Family New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Frozen 2 New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World New WL O New TL O
• Missing Link New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Shaun the Sheep 2 New PP O
• The Swallos of Kabul New TB O
• Toy Story 4 New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• White Snake New TB O

Best Directing

• 1917 – Sam Mendes New PP J TB O
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – Marielle Heller PP O TB O
• Cats – Tom Hooper WL O
• Dry Run – Todd Haynes TB O
• The Goldfinch – John Crowley TL TL O
• Harriet – Kasi Lemmons WL O PP O TB O New TL TL J
• The Irishman – Martin Scorsese WL O New PP J TB O TL TL O
• Little Women – Greta Gerwig WL O TL TL O
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino WL O PP O TL TL O

Best Actor

• Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory New PP J TB O
• Robert De Niro – The Irishman WL O TL TL O
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood PP O TL TL O
• Adam Driver – The Report TB O
• Taron Egerton – Rocketman WL O TB O TL TL O
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Ian McKellen – The Good Liar WL O PP O
• Dev Patel – The Personal History of David Copperfield TB O
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood WL O New PP J New TL TL J

Best Actress

• Amy Adams – The Woman in the Window WL O TB O TL O
• Awkwafina – The Farewell WL O TB O TL TL O
• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Helen Mirren – The Good Liar New PP J
• Julianne Moore – Gloria Bell WL O
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women PP O TB O TL TL O
• Meryl Streep – The Laundromat New PP J TB O
• Alfre Woodard – Clemency PP O
• Renée Zellweger – Judy WL O TL TL O

Best Supporting Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Little Women WL O TL O
• Benedict Cumberbatch – 1917 PP O
• Willem Dafoe – The Last Thing He Wanted New PP J
• Harvey Keitel – The Irishman WL O
• John Lithgow – Fair & Balanced TB O New TL TL J
• Leslie Odom Jr. – Harriet PP O TB O TL TL O
• Gary Oldman – The Laundromat TB O
• Gary Oldman – The Woman in the Window WL O
• Al Pacino – The Irishman WL O New PP J TL TL O
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman WL O TB O
• Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood PP O TL TL O
• Jeffrey Wright – The Goldfinch TB O

Best Supporting Actress

• Annette Bening – The Report PP O TB O TL O
• Laura Dern – Little Women WL O PP O
• Jennifer Hudson – Cats TB O
• Nicole Kidman – The Goldfinch PP O
• Janelle Monae – Harriet TL TL O
• Julianne Moore – The Woman in the Window New TB J
• Anna Paquin – The Irishman WL O
• Sarah Paulson – The Goldfinch WL O
• Margot Robbie – Fair & Balanced TB O
• Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood WL O PP O TL TL O
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women WL O
• Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey PP O TL TL O
• Emma Watson – Little Women TB O TL TL O