As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Precursor season is upon us and our contributors have been hard at work revising, revising, and revising their lists. This is the month where the most significant changes typically take place with our January, pre-nominations predictions being the final chance to get it right. Here are some interesting notes. In a very rare occurrence, the four of us all predicted the exact same five Best Directing nominees. In Best Picture, we are unified on eight of ten potential Best Picture nominees. We were also agreed on four of the five nominees in Best Animated Feature, Best Actress, Best Original Song (one of our new categories this month), and Best Foreign Language Film. We each agree on more than 50% of the nominees in every category except Best Actor (we are only unified on two of the nominees), Best Adapted Screenplay (we fully agree also on two), Best Original Score (another two agreements), Best Makeup & Hairstyling (we have only one title entirely in common), Best Documentary Feature (likewise only one), Documentary Short Subject (two agreements), Animated Short Film (no agreements), Live Action Short Film (one agreement). Apart from Best Picture, the categories where we have agreed the least, selecting ten films between the four of us are Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Documentary Feature, and Best Animated Short Film with Best Original Score, Best Documentary Short, and Best Live Action Short near that with nine films each.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: It’s been a long month since our last predictions and I’ve been making internal changes for the entirety of that time. Glad to finally get these puppies out there. Feeling much more confident now on them.
Peter J. Patrick: The National Board of Review, the New York and Los Angeles film critics, the Golden Globes, and the Screen Actors Guild have all spoken as have many other organizations. What will Oscar do? We shall see, said the blind man.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: The Golden Globes, various critics’ awards, and especially the Screen Actors Guild award nominations bring the Oscar race more into focus. Some films are definitely in, while others like The Two Popes, Bombshell, and Ford v. Ferrari are on the fence in various races. Bombshell will definitely have acting nominations, but will it pull off picture and screenplay? Ford will be up for best picture, but will star Christian Bale get a nomination? And The Two Popes will likely be nominated for its screenplay, but I am unsure if it will score for best picture or either of its stars. I was surprised at how thoroughly Robert De Niro missed out on noms across the board. So his chances are probably gone. The SAG nominations make me wonder if Scarlett Johansson will be able to pull off the double nomination, or if Us is the type of film that can generate an acting nom. A few years back, I would have said no, but with the changing group of voters in the Academy, that may be a possibility now, even though I left her off my list. My personal dislike of Joker, plays into the few nominations I predict for it, and I hope it does not really do that much better in reality. It will be interesting to see if Little Women overcomes its dismal performance in the guilds come Oscar time. It seems surprising that it did so badly considering how well received it has been reviewed. We are into the final month before nominations are announced, which is always an exciting time. So keep seeing movies.

Best Picture

• 1917 WL O PP O TB O TL J
• Bombshell WL P New TL D
• Ford v. Ferrari WL N PP O TB M TL J
• The Irishman WL O PP J TB O TL O
• Jojo Rabbit WL P PP C New TB D TL P
• Joker New WL D Returned PP D New TB D
• Little Women WL O PP A TB O TL O
• Marriage Story WL P PP A TB A TL P
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB A TL O
• Parasite New WL D PP P TB P TL P
• The Two Popes PP P TB P TL N

Best Animated Feature

• Frozen II WL O PP O TB O TL O
• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Returned WL D Returned PP D New TL D
• I Lost My Body New WL D New PP D New TB D TL N
• Missing Link WL O PP N TB O TL O
• The Swallows of Kabul TB O
• Toy Story 4 WL O PP O TB O TL O

Best Directing

• 1917 – Sam Mendes New WL D PP J New TB D TL P
• The Irishman – Martin Scorsese WL O PP J TB O TL O
• Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach WL P New PP D TB P TL C
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino WL O PP O TB A TL O
• Parasite – Joon-ho Bong New WL D PP N TB A TL P

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari New TL D
• Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory WL A TB O New TL D
• Robert De Niro – The Irishman WL O PP C
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood New WL D PP O TL O
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story WL P PP A TB P TL P
• Taron Egerton – Rocketman TB C
• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker WL P Returned PP D TB N TL P
• Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes PP P TB P

Best Actress

• Awkwafina – The Farewell TL O
• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet WL O PP O New TB D New TL D
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story WL N PP A TB P TL P
• Lupita Nyong’o – Us New WL D
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women PP O TB O
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell New WL D PP C TB C TL N
• Renée Zellweger – Judy WL O PP M TB C TL O

Best Supporting Actor

• Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy WL P TB P
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood New WL D PP P TL P
• Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes PP P New TB D TL P
• Al Pacino – The Irishman WL O PP J New TB D TL O
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman New WL D PP N TB O TL C
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood New WL D PP A TB A TL M

Best Supporting Actress

• Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell New WL D
• Laura Dern – Marriage Story WL C PP A TB P TL M
• Nicole Kidman – Bombshell New PP D New TB D New TL D
• Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers New WL D PP N New TB D TL P
• Florence Pugh – Little Women New WL D TB N TL N
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell New WL D New PP D TB O TL N
• Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey PP O

Best Original Screenplay

• 1917 PP O
• The Farewell WL O PP C TL O
• Knives Out New WL D
• Marriage Story WL P PP O TB O TL O
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Pain & Glory TB C TL N
• Parasite New WL D PP P TB P TL P
• The Two Popes TB P

Best Adapted Screenplay

• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood TB O TL P
• Downton Abbey PP C
• Hustlers New WL D
• The Irishman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Jojo Rabbit WL P PP P TB O TL P
• Joker New WL D New TB D
• Judy PP C
• Little Women WL O TB O TL O
• The Two Popes PP C TL C

Best Original Song

• Glasgow – Wild Rose New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• ( I’m Gonna) Love Me Again – Rocketman New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Into the Unknown – Frozen II New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Speechless – Aladdin New PP O
• Spirit – The Lion King New WL O New TB O New TL O
• Stand Up – Harriet New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O

Best Original Score

• 1917 New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Ford v Ferrari New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Frozen II New PP O
• Joker New WL O New PP O
• Little Women New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Marriage Story New TB O New TL O
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker New WL O New TB O New TL O
• Us New WL O

Best Film Editing

• 1917 WL O PP O TB N TL O
• Ford v. Ferrari New WL D PP O TB O TL O
• The Irishman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Jojo Rabbit New TB D
• Marriage Story PP O
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TL O
• Parasite New WL D TB O New TL D

Best Cinematography

• 1917 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Ford v. Ferrari PP O TB O
• A Hidden Life TB O
• The Irishman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Lighthouse New WL D PP C TL N
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Parasite New WL D New TL D

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• 1917 New TL O
• Bombshell New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Dolemite Is My Name New TB O
• Downton Abbey New PP O
• Joker New WL O New TL O
• Judy New WL O New TB O New TL O
• Little Women New PP O
• Maleficent: Mistres of Evil New TB O
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Rocketman New WL O New PP O New TB O

Best Visual Effects

• 1917 New WL D New PP D New TL D
• Avengers: Endgame WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Gemini Man TB N
• The Irishman WL N PP O TB C TL P
• The Lion King WL O TB O TL O
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Terminator: Dark Fate New PP D

Best Foreign Language Film

• Atlantics New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Beanpole New TB O New TL O
• Corpus Christi New PP O
• Les Misérables New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Pain and Glory New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Painted Bird New WL O
• Parasite New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O

Best Documentary Feature

• Advocate New PP O
• American Factory New WL O New TB O New TL O
• Apollo 11 New WL O New PP O New TL O
• The Cave New TB O
• For Sama New WL O New TB O New TL O
• Honeyland New TB O New TL O
• Knock Down the House New WL O
• Maiden New PP O
• Midnight Family New PP O
• One Child Nation New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O

Best Documentary Short Subject

• After Maria New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Fire in Paradie New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Ghosts of Sugar Land New TL O
• Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) New WL O New TB O
• Life Overtakes Me New PP O
• The Nightcrawlers New WL O New TB O New TL O
• St. Louis Superman New WL O New PP O New TB O
• Stay Close New PP O
• Walk Run Cha-Cha New TL O

Best Animated Short Film

• Dcera (Daughter) New TL O
• Hair Love New WL O New TB O
• He Can’t Live without Cosmos New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Hors Piste New TL O
• Kitbull New WL O New TB O
• Memorable New WL O New PP O
• Mind My Mind New TB O New TL O
• The Physics of Sorrow New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Sister New WL O New PP O New TB O
• Uncle Thomas: Counting the Days New PP O

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Brotherhood New PP O
• The Christmas Gift New WL O New PP O New TB O
• Little Hands New TB O New TL O
• Miller & Son New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Nefta Football Club New TB O
• The Neighbor’s Window New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Refugee New WL O New TL O
• Saria New WL O
• Sometimes, I Think About Dying New WL O New PP O New TL O