As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Most categories are starting to coalesce, but we won’t know much for certain until after the late summer festivals of Telluride, Toronto, and Venice where most of this year’s Oscar contenders will either fly or falter. Matter of fact, these will be our final predictions before that trifecta of events. Venice is Aug. 28 through Sep. 7, Telluride is Aug. 30 through Sep. 2, and Toronto is Sep. 5 through 15. The three festivals overlap, but by the time our deadline arrives for September predictions, all three will be done and the true shape of this year’s Oscar competition will be known.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: The Kitchen is the latest critical flop to get pulled from this list. Rocketman seems to have faded in time, so it’s been demoted from a number of categories. Pain and Glory has become a potential nominee as has Parasite in the remotest of senses.
Peter J. Patrick: Just a few changes as we await the late summer – early fall film festivals. Marriage Story enters my predictions for Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress as well as for the newly included category of Original Screenplay. Little Women and Jojo Rabbit also find spots in my Best Picture predictions. Brad Pitt and Meryl Streep move to support. Laura Dern returns to my predictions albeit in a different role. Joe Pesci joins the supporting actor discussion. Benedict Cumberbatch, Leslie Odom Jr., and Nicole Kidman are out, at least for now.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: I do not have any movement on my films since last month as I just have not heard that much to change my opinions yet. It is still difficult to try to decide what category certain actors will be placed in, either lead or supporting. Having seen Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, I am keeping Brad Pitt in supporting, but am unsure if that is where he should be. It felt like Leonardo DiCaprio had slightly more screen time, but it is uncertain to me which category both will vie for. We are adding writing predictions, but I know so little about most of the films that it is hard to do more than guess at this point. There is some disagreement as to whether some films will be placed under original or adapted categories, and that may take a while to figure out. As always, I do my best and hope.

Best Picture

• 1917 WL O PP O TB O TL J
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Dry Run TB O
• The Farewell WL M TB M
• Ford v. Ferrari PP O TB M TL J
• The Goldfinch WL O TL O
• Harriet WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Irishman WL O PP J TB O TL O
• Jojo Rabbit New PP A
• The Laundromat TL O
• Little Women WL O New PP A TB O TL O
• Marriage Story New PP A New TB A
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O New TB A TL O
• Pain and Glory New WL A
• The Report PP O TL O
• Us WL O

Best Animated Feature

• The Addams Family WL O PP O TL O
• Frozen II WL O PP O TB O TL O
• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World WL O
• Missing Link WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon PP O TL M
• The Swallos of Kabul TB O
• Toy Story 4 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• White Snake TB O

Best Director

• 1917 – Sam Mendes New WL A PP J TB O
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – Marielle Heller PP O
• The Goldfinch – John Crowley TL O
• Harriet – Kasi Lemmons WL O TB O TL J
• The Irishman – Martin Scorsese WL O PP J TB O TL O
• Little Women – Greta Gerwig WL O TL O
• Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach New PP A
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino WL O PP O New TB A TL O
• Parasite – Joon-ho Bong New TB A

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari TB M
• Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory New WL A PP J TB O
• Robert De Niro – The Irishman WL O TL O
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood PP O TL O
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story New PP A
• Adam Driver – The Report TB O
• Taron Egerton – Rocketman TL O
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Ian McKellen – The Good Liar WL O PP O TL M
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O
• Mark Ruffalo – Dry Run New TB A

Best Actress

• Awkwafina – The Farewell WL O TB O TL O
• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story New PP A
• Helen Mirren – The Good Liar WL M
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women New WL A PP O TB O TL O
• Meryl Streep – The Laundromat TB O
• Alfre Woodard – Clemency PP O TB M TL M
• Renée Zellweger – Judy WL O PP M TL O

Best Supporting Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Little Women WL O TL O
• Willem Dafoe – The Last Thing He Wanted PP J
• Matt Damon – Ford v. Ferrari WL M
• Harvey Keitel – The Irishman WL O
• John Lithgow – Fair & Balanced TB O
• Leslie Odom Jr. – Harriet TB O TL O
• Gary Oldman – The Laundromat TB O
• Al Pacino – The Irishman WL O PP J TL O
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman WL O New PP A TB O
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood New PP A New TB A TL M
• Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood PP O TL O

Best Supporting Actress

• Annette Bening – The Report PP O TB O TL O
• Judi Dench – Cats New TB A
• Laura Dern – Little Women WL O
• Laura Dern – Marriage Story New PP A TL M
• Nicole Kidman – The Goldfinch WL M TL M
• Janelle Monae – Harriet TB M
• Sarah Paulson – The Goldfinch WL O
• Florence Pugh – Little Women PP M
• Margot Robbie – Fair & Balanced TB O
• Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O TL O
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women WL O
• Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey PP O
• Meryl Streep – The Laundromat New PP A
• Emma Watson – Little Women TB O TL O

Best Original Screenplay

• 1917 New PP O
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood New WL O
• Dry Ryn New TB O
• The Farewell New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Harriet New WL O New TB O New TL O
• Marriage Story New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Pope New TL O
• The Report New PP O
• Us New WL O

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Aeronauts New TL O
• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood New TB O
• Ford v. Ferrari New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Goldfinch New WL O New TL O
• The Good Liar New WL O
• The Irishman New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Jojo Rabbit New TB O
• Little Women New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Motherless Brooklyn New PP O
• Toy Story 4 New PP O

Best Visual Effects

• Ad Astra PP O TB O
• Avengers: Endgame WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Captain Marvel TL O
• Cats TB O
• Gemini Man WL O TL O
• The Irishman PP O
• The Lion King WL O TB O TL O
• Midway WL O
• Spider-Man: Far from Home PP O
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker WL O PP O TB O TL O