The first of the guilds to present their annual awards might give us a glimpse into the Oscar race. Although Oscar voting is now over, it won’t have an influence on the nominations, but could have an outsized influence on the winners considering how tight the Best Picture race is this year.

PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Picture

Black Panther (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
BlacKkKlansman (RU:Tripp)
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Vice

Wesley Lovell: From 1990 through 2015, they had missed the Best Picture winner six times. Out of 27 winners (a tie in 2014 between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity with the former winning), that’s a 78% prediction rate. In the last five years, they have predicted 3 out of their 6 winners, a rate of 50%. That suggests they may not be as in tune with the Oscars as they once were. After all, it’s voted on by producers alone. That’s why you get winners like Apollo 13 over Braveheart, Saving Private Ryan over Shakespeare in Love, and La La Land over Moonlight. Black Panther would be akin to some of their past winners, as would A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, or Crazy Rich Asians. Meanwhile, films like BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, and Roma could pick up the Oscar vote without batting an eyelash. Then there’s the likes of Green Book or Vice, films that have surged in late voting (alongside Bohemian Rhapsody who could also play a spoiler. I think Black Panther leads while A Star Is Born waits in the wing, but honestly only A Quiet Place would really surprise me as a winner out of this bunch.
Peter J. Patrick: This is a really tough call this year. They might opt for Roma, but there is probably a reluctance to honor a foreign film, especially one that is controlled by streaming service Netflix. They could go their own way and throw their support behind Green Book but that seems less and less likely as the film continues to be bombarded with controversy. More likely, they’ll opt for popularity and go with either Black Panther or A Star Is Born.
Tripp Burton: Honestly, I have no idea. It could also be Black Panther, or Green Book, or Bohemian Rhapsody, or Roma, or even Vice, and it wouldn’t surprise me. This is wide open.
Thomas LaTourette: The top grossing film of the year was also a critical darling even though it was a superhero film. That leads me to suspect that Black Panther might go on to win the PGA. In a year when there is no clear frontrunner for the Oscar, I think the PGA will muddy the waters further and award Black Panther, which probably has not much chance of an Oscar win. If not, then I would guess A Star Is Born which also did well at the box office and was fairly well received. Both Crazy Rich Asians and Bohemian Rhapsody did well, but they do not quite feel like award winners, even though Bohemian Rhapsody was a surprise winner at the Golden Globes. So look for Black Panther to win, but do not be surprised if something else passes it by.

Best Animated Feature

Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
Incredibles 2 (Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Since it created the award for animation, nine films have gone on to win the Oscar while only four have failed to carry over. That’s better than 50%, but not by much. That said, the last five years have seen the winner match the Oscars four times, suggesting they might be moving into a period of better alignment. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is the only non-sequel on the list that has a chance of eking out a win over Incredibles 2 with Ralph Breaks the Internet a distant third. It’s also about success. While Incredibles 2 was a box office behemoth, Spider-Man has made money as well, just not by the cartloads. That said, it has what Incredibles 2 doesn’t deafening acclaim. The PGA hasn’t always gone with the biggest box office hit, though in its thirteen-year history, it’s picked a non-Disney/non-Pixar film only twice. That could spell trouble for Spider-Man and since the original Incredibles released prior to the creation of the category, they could award it for not getting the chance before.
Peter J. Patrick: Spider-Man seems to be the prevailing favorite amongst all awards bodies this year. If there is an upset, I suspect it will be Isle of Dogs or Ralph Breaks the Internet, with the latter seemingly more likely.
Tripp Burton: Spider-Man should continue its awards dominance here.
Thomas LaTourette: The fact that Incredibles 2 was the third most popular film worldwide makes it the most likely winner here. Toy Story 3 is the only sequel so far to have won, but it may well have company now. The first Incredibles came out the year before the PGA started giving out an animated picture award, so they may want to honor it for that as well. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse will give it some pretty strong competition, especially coming off of the Golden Globes win. The award could conceivably go to Wreck-It Ralph 2, as the original won the PGA though not the Oscar. It will be a tight race, but I expect Incredibles 2 to end up first.

Best Documentary

The Dawn Wall
Free Solo
Hal
Into the Okavango
RBG (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Three Identical Strangers (RU:Peter)
Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: First awarded in 2007, the documentary award is one of the least predictive the PGA has to offer. Part of that reason is that many of the winners don’t even get Oscar nominations. Of the eleven winners of the PGA award, five of them weren’t even Oscar nominated. That being said, if a PGA winner gets nominated, it also tends to win the Oscar as well with only one of six (Sicko) not ultimately winning the Oscar as well. Those are pretty good odds and is why I’m going with Won’t You Be My Neighbor? to win. A lot of these nominees could go on to Oscar nominations, but that film has earned tons of praise this season and tons of awards while earning a solid $22 million at the box office. That being said, the nearest competitor in terms of box office is RBG with $14 million and that film is still in release. Of course, this group could go a different direction, but they have more often gone with the critical consensus than not, so Won’t You Be My Neighbor? is a fairly safe choice.
Peter J. Patrick: The Mr. Rogers documentary, Won’t You Be My Neighbor? seems like a safe bet, with either RBG or Three Identical Strangers poised for the upset.
Tripp Burton: A guess. There are a lot of contenders here.
Thomas LaTourette: Once again I think the PGA will go with one of the more popular films, which means either RBG, Free Solo, or Won’t You Be My Neighbor? RBG was the most talked about doc of the year and it did well at the box office, so I think it will be their choice. I have not seen Free Solo yet, but it may be peaking too late for them. Which leaves the doc about the kindly but quietly forceful Mister Rogers as a strong second choice. However, it feels like RBG’s year to win.