This award is already a big deal as the winner almost always wins the Oscar, but also for what it says about Best Picture. This year it could be even more important as Best Directing seems solid at the Oscars, but Best Picture is incredibly amorphous. If we get a surprise here, we may just know which direction the winds are blowing.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Director

BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Green Book – Peter Farrelly
Roma – Alfonso Cuaron (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
A Star Is Born – Bradley Cooper
Vice – Adam McKay

Wesley Lovell: Alfonso Cuaron has won almost everything that wasn’t nailed down. Yet, Spike Lee is a living legend and has never gotten this group’s love. While Roma is the frontrunner, if Lee wins, we could be looking at a BlacKkKlansman push to the Oscars. The rest are likely also-rans, but could surprise if the two legends fight for too many votes.
Peter J. Patrick: Alfonso Cuaron is widely expected to win this, but if there is going to be an upset Spike Lee is the most likely to prevail.
Tripp Burton: Everyone thinks Cuaron is the front-runner here, but a win for Spike Lee would put BlacKkKlansman ahead in the conversation. I think he might finally win here over recent winner Cuaron.
Thomas LaTourette: It would be surprising if anyone but Cuaron won this award. He has absolutely dominated the precursors, winning almost double all the other directors combined. Lee might actually be the more deserving, but it will go to Cuaron.

Best First Feature

Bo Burnham – Eighth Grade (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Carlos Lopez Estrada – Blindspotting
Matthew Heineman – A Private War (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Boots Riley – Sorry to Bother You

Wesley Lovell: There’s only one of these five who’s also up for Best Directing. I would be shocked if Bradley Cooper lost here. That said, Bo Burnham has gotten most of the attention this year for his debut and with Ari Aster and Hereditary out of the way, Burnham could surprise.
Peter J. Patrick: Bradley Cooper is so going to win this that selecting a runner-up is something of a fool’s errand, but I’ll go with noted documentarian Matthew Heineman making his feature film debut.
Tripp Burton: Cooper is an easy win here.
Thomas LaTourette: I think that Cooper will win for the box office hit, A Star Is Born. People were surprised that he did not have an Oscar nomination for it, and I think love for the film may carry over to a win here. If not, then I am thinking that the upset could come from Sorry to Bother You, which was a hit on the indie circuit. Others were too, but that seemed the most inventive which probably had a lot to do with the director.

Best Documentary Director

Free Solo (Wesley, Tripp)
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
RBG (RU: Thomas)
Three Identical Strangers (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: This is a tough choice. While the first three on the list are Oscar-nominated documentaries, the last two are more awarded. Free Solo gravity-defying work is most likely to impress this group, but any of the others could easily win with Three Identical Strangers requiring a great deal more effort to put together than the other three.
Peter J. Patrick: I have a hunch this will go to one the two directors whose work was snubbed by the documentary Oscar nominators with Won’t You Be My Neighbor‘s Neville winning in a close race with Three Identical Strangers‘ Wardle.
Tripp Burton: The DGA likes to award directors who seem to risk a lot to get their film made, which might reward the mountain climbing of Free Solo.
Thomas LaTourette: (commentary & predictions added 2/2/19 @ 7:53PM CST) I am not certain what the guild looks for in this award, though the documentary has often gone on to win the Oscar. However, I will go with Won’t You Be My Neighbor? to win as it seemed the most respected of the docs, even if it was overlooked by the Academy. If it doesn’t, than RBG seems a likely winner. It is a strong set of nominees, so it could go anywhere.