Breaking themselves out into drama and comedy categories, the American Cinema Editors do better at predicting the Oscars because they have two chances, not just one. That said, even if one of these winners doesn’t win the Film Editing award at the Oscars, it could be an indication of which direction voters are looking towards when choosing Best Picture.

AMERICAN CINEMA EDITORS AWARDS

Best Drama Editing

BlacKkKlansman (RU:Wesley)
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Roma (Thomas, RU:Peter)
A Star Is Born

Wesley Lovell: Although it isn’t nominated for the Oscar, First Man seems like a much more likely winner than the others. That said, Oscar nominees BlacKkKlansman and Bohemian Rhapsody probably have the best shot at an upset.
Peter J. Patrick: The sweep and grandeur of a film like First Man with its many cuts is the type of film they generally go for here, but Roma has been winning the lion’s share of critics’ awards. I can see either one winning.
Tripp Burton: (no predictions or commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Both Roma and First Man have won some of the precursors so far, and Roma looks the likely winner from the guild. To me it felt like a film that could have used more editing, but I am not the one giving the award. If it doesn’t succeed, than First Man would seem the logical choice. If it goes to one of the Oscar-nominated films, then that will throw the Best Picture category into even more disarray.

Best Comedy/Musical Editing

Crazy Rich Asians
Deadpool 2
The Favourite (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Green Book (Peter)
Vice (Wesley, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: In a rarity, three of the Best Film Editing Oscar nominees are on this list and as Crazy Rich Asians and Deadpool 2 didn’t come close to Oscar nominations for editing, neither stands a very good shot of landing this award. That leaves Vice, The Favourite, and Green Book, in that order, as the most likely to take this prize.
Peter J. Patrick: Green Book has the most intricate cuts, while The Favourite has the tightest cuts. Either could win here.
Tripp Burton: (no predictions or commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: In the past, this award has gone to the more serious nominated films, so I could easily see Vice winning. It’s a Best Picture nominee and has flashy editing. If it does not win, than perhaps The Favourite will sneak in. Since The Big Short won and it was by the same ACE award-winning editor as that [Vice], I imagine it is the one to beat.

Best Animation Editing

Incredibles 2 (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Isle of Dogs (RU:Peter)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The two superhero animated films are likely to contend for the editing prize with the acclaimed Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse leading the pack.
Peter J. Patrick: I don’t see how Spider-Man loses unless it’s to Isle of Dogs, they required the most sophisticated editing of the nominees.
Tripp Burton: (no predictions or commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: As this has gone to the eventual Oscar winner since its inception, I expect Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse to win. It had an unusual style which should cement its place in first.

Best Documentary Editing

Free Solo (Wesley, Thomas)
RBG (RU:Thomas)
Three Identical Strangers (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The death-defying photography of Free Solo should have a better opportunity than the others, but don’t overlook the other acclaimed documentaries with Three Identical Strangers with the best chance of overtaking Free Solo.
Peter J. Patrick: Hard to say, but I have a feeling they’ll go with one of the two shockingly snubbed by Oscar, most likely Three Identical Strangers over Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Tripp Burton: (no predictions or commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Seeing as Free Solo has the most obvious editing between the mountain climbing shots, I would expect it to win. RBG would be my next guess.