Although this guild only has influence on the eventual Oscar winner, a surprise win or a convincing one could point towards a Best Picture trend.

ART DIRECTORS GUILD AWARDS

Best Period Art Direction

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
First Man (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Roma (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: The Oscars nominated three of these films, so you can toss Ballad of Buster Scruggs and Bohemian Rhapsody from your predictions as this group seldom awards a non-nominee. That leaves period comedy/drama The Favourite, First Man and its space race, and black-and-white 1970s Mexico in Roma. I’m hard pressed to find a reason why the more traditional period production design of The Favourite wouldn’t win, but am reminded that Roma constructed most of its city sets, which is quite an impressive feat and might impress these folk. It would also point towards Roma being a stronger Best Picture contender than it currently seems.
Peter J. Patrick: The Favoruite has the most elaborate sets, but First Man has the meticulous look and feel of a period many of the guild members vividly recall. I could see this going to either one.
Tripp Burton: This seems like a wide-open race, as does the Oscar race in this category, and I will lean towards the British period piece over the other solid contenders.
Thomas LaTourette: The Favourite should coast to victory here as it has sumptuous designs from years ago. The others are much more modern and should pale by comparison.

Best Fantasy Art Direction

Black Panther (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (RU:Thomas)
The House with a Clock in Its Walls
Mary Poppins Returns (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Ready Player One (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Two of the Oscar nominees are on this list, giving Black Panther and Mary Poppins Returns a leg-up. I thin both have a terrific chance of winning this award with Fantastic Beasts a solid possible upset. That said, Black Panther is a lot more inventive and original than Mary Poppins Returns and that might be enough to carry the day.
Peter J. Patrick: Ready Player One was not a particularly good film, but the art direction and set design was pure genius. Black Panther was almost as good. I could see either one winning.
Tripp Burton: This should be a battle between the two Oscar nominees, and I am pretty sure Black Panther will win.
Thomas LaTourette: I think the modern sets of Black Panther should prevail over the period work of Fantastic Beasts, though any of these films could win.

Best Contemporary Art Direction

Crazy Rich Asians (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
A Quiet Place (Peter, RU:Tripp)
A Star Is Born
Welcome to Marwen (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I was torn between picking Crazy Rich Asians and Welcome to Marwen. Ultimately, the choice of Marwen is for the creative alternative world of dolls come to life giving it the edge.
Peter J. Patrick: A Quiet Place and the critically lambasted Welcome to Marwen are the most original. I think either one could pull off a win here.
Tripp Burton: I don’t see the lavish Crazy Rich Asians losing here.
Thomas LaTourette: Crazy Rich Asians seems designed for this category and should win for the fabulous houses of the uber rich. If not, then either Mission: Impossible – Fallout or Welcome to Marwen might sneak in.

Best Animation Art Direction

Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Of these, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is the only one that takes animation into a singular new direction and that alone leads me to believe it will win. If not, the Disney/Pixar sequels don’t have a lot of new things to offer leaving the models of Isle of Dogs in a solid position to upset.
Peter J. Patrick: This is the one area where I think Isle of Dogs will prevail over Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, but I could be wrong.
Tripp Burton: The detail work of Wes Anderson’s Isle of Dogs seems like a slightly safer bet than awards season behemoth Spider-Man. Either wouldn’t surprise me.
Thomas LaTourette: I think Spider-Man will take it, the stop motion work in Isle of Dogs might appeal.