As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

It’s a bit surprising that May is already upon us, but it’s time to make our first long-shot predictions for the year. While we have a small bit of certainty about our first predictions of the year, there are far too many ifs, ands, and buts to consider, so these will most certainly change by our next post.

Looking over our list, we have a surprising amount of agreement with Best Actor being our least disagreed-upon slate while Best Actress seems like the least aligned.

Over the coming months, we’ll be adding more predictions in more categories. Stay tuned.

KEY:

Best Picture

• The Aftermath PP O
• Backseat WL O PP O TL O
• Beautiful Boy PP O TB O TL O
• Black Panther WL O
• BlacKkKlansman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Boy Erased WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Favourite PP O TL O
• First Man WL O TB O TL O
• The Front Runner PP O TB O
• If Beale Street Could Talk PP O TB O TL O
• Mary Poppins Returns PP O
• Mary Queen of Scots WL O TL O
• On the Basis of Sex TB O
• Operation Finale WL O
• Roma TB O
• A Star Is Born TB O TL O
• The Front Runner WL O
• Where’d You Go, Bernadette? WL O
• Widows WL O PP O TB O TL O

Best Directing

• Beautiful Boy – Felix Van Groeningen TL O
• Black Panther – Ryan Coogler WL O
• BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Boy Erased – Joel Edgerton WL O TL TL O
• The Favourite – Yorgos Lanthimos PP O
• First Man – Damien Chazelle WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• The Front Runner – Jason Reitman WL O PP O TB O
• If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins PP O TL TL O
• On the Basis of Sex – Mimi Leder TB O
• Widows – Steve McQueen TB O

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Backseat TL O
• Javier Bardem – Loving Pablo WL O
• Steve Carell – Beautiful Boy PP O TB O TL TL O
• Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate TB O
• Ryan Gosling – First Man WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased WL O PP O TB O
• Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman WL O PP O TL TL O

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go, Bernadette? PP O
• Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns WL O
• Glenn Close – The Wife WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Penélope Cruz – Loving Pablo WL O
• Viola Davis – Widows PP O TB O
• Kathryn Hahn – Private Life TB O
• Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex TB O TL TL O
• Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born TL TL O
• Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? WL O TL TL O
• Carey Mulligan – Wildlife TB O
• Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots WL O PP O TL TL O
• Renée Zellweger – Judy PP O

Best Supporting Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Russell Crowe – Boy Erased PP O TB O TL TL O
• Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman PP O TB O TL TL O
• Colin Farrell – Widows WL O
• Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? WL O TL TL O
• Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex WL O
• Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick TB O
• Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns PP O
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman TB O
• Sam Rockwell – Backseat TL TL O
• J.K. Simmons – The Front Runner WL O
• Alexander Skarsgard – The Aftermath PP O

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams – Backseat TL O
• Kathy Bates – On the Basis of Sex TB O
• Olivia Coleman – The Favourite PP O
• Laura Dern – JT LeRoy TL TL O
• Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner PP O TB O
• Claire Foy – First Man WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Carol Kane – The Sisters Brothers WL O
• Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk TB O
• Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots PP O TL TL O
• Sissy Spacek – Old Man and the Gun WL O
• Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns WL O