Let’s take a look at how May’s releases performed, especially compared to my as-usual high expectations.

May 5, 2017

Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The first film earned two Oscar nominations, though it was expected to pick up more. I suspect that it will make another appearance this year, but perhaps only in one category this time out.”
Oscar Results: The film may not have the same luck with the Oscars as the first film did, which also suffered from a last minute sluggishness of support for the film. That is likely to result in the film being completely ignored by Oscar.
Box Office Prospects: $375 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The original film made $333 million at the box office, the sequel has more hype, more name recognition, and therefore every opportunity to surpass its original tally.”
Box Office Results: $389.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] Performing almost exactly as expected, the sequel did quite well, only slightly outperforming its predecessor.

May 12, 2017

King Arthur: Legend of the Sword

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. While the film certainly has some technical aspects that could be honored, I suspect the film will have too much competition from other period adventures set throughout the year.”
Oscar Results: The film has largely been forgotten already, making it even less likely to be an Oscar nominee.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Although Guy Ritchie has had only two box office hits, they were big ones. Yet, it’s opening against Guardians fo the Galaxy, which will mute its opening weekend, which won’t have much of a positive impact on its lifetime opportunity.”
Box Office Results: $39.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Guy Ritchie might have had a success with the Sherlock Holmes films, but everything else he’s done has disappointed.

Lowriders

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. The film has had limited advertisement and doesn’t sound like the kind of movie to strike out well against a weekend of three other larger releases.”
Box Office Results: $6.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A lack of advertising is always a death knell to any picture.

Snatched

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The producers are hoping that Amy Schumer will draw major audiences to the theater. Yet, she’s untested at the box office and the movie looks kinda dumb, even for a dumb comedy.”
Box Office Results: $45.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] While it didn’t quite live up to expectations, it was still the best performing film released on its weekend, which is something…I guess.

May 19, 2017

Alien: Covenant

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The first flm scored two nominations and even managed to win Best Visual Effects. The second film did even better scoring seven nominations, including Best Actress for Sigourney Weaver and taking home awards for Visual Effects and Sound Effects Editing. The third film was a disappointment in terms of Oscar, picking up a single nod for Visual Effects. The fourth film was completely ignored. Flash forward two decades and the prequel to this feature, Prometheus, returned with a single nod for Visual Effects. Considering the franchise’s success in the category, Visual Effects is probably a given. Other categories aren’t terribly likely.”
Oscar Results: The film was a box office flop, which may hurt its chances. It’s still a minor contender, but I wouldn’t expect too much outside of the guilds.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Although the prequel Prometheus was a dud compared to the original Alien adventures, this has the word in its title and is reminiscent of the original films in a way that may help bolster its box office potential.”
Box Office Results: $74.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Ridley Scott’s second prequel to the original Alien, this time bearing the name of that sci-fi classic, suffered from disappointment over the prior film, Prometheus, and didn’t manage to improve much in terms of quality.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Looking at the prior three films, released 7, 6, and 5 years ago respectively, the franchise was steadily fading, which is likely why they stopped. Now they are trying again. The lengthy delay won’t help the box office much as pent-up demand may not be there.”
Box Office Results: $20.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This franchise is toast. Five years removed from its predecessor, it pulled in a third of the first film and half of the third film. The series’ steady decline is proof positive that the series is done.

Everything, Everything

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The film won’t have the longevity and box office potency of The Fault in Our Stars, but this teen melodrama should do decent box office business.”
Box Office Results: $34.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not all teen-targeted romance films are going to be hits and lately, they are more likely to flop than succeed.

May 26, 2017

Baywatch

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Although the film looks quite idiotic, there’s a market for that and if the similar-looking 21 Jump Street can make $138 million, the more popular Dwayne Johnson should be able to outdo Channing Tatum.”
Box Office Results: $58.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Perhaps turning away from what made the TV series so popular wasn’t such a good idea.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Now in its fifth incarnation, the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise has done quiet well. The first film earned five nominations; the second received four, and won the award for Best Visual Effects; the third picked up two nominations; but the fourth was ignored. They have apparently done some retooling, at least from the looks of it, so I suspect this one will be a nominee as well, but it will be tougher competition than in the franchise’s prior outings.”
Oscar Results: With the appearance that the film was a box office disappointment, it might not be able to slough off those dreadful reviews to make a play in the tech categories, where it’s already a long shot.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. All but one of the films have topped $300 million, but those films didn’t have a lengthy 6-year hiatus and a jam-packed May to get in the way. Still, Johnny Depp should still merit a success, but it could come in below the last film, On Stranger Tides, which posted a mere $241 million.”
Box Office Results: $172.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] This tally is nothing to be ashamed of, unless of course your prior installments all surpassed $240 million with three of them topping $300 million. This doesn’t mean the end of the franchise, but the end might be nigh.