June 2, 2017

Captain Underpants

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. DreamWorks has a strange history with audiences. Even movies that are trashed by critics still do well and some that aren’t do poorly. It’s almost a crap-shoot whether it will succeed or not. After The Boss Baby,. It’s possible that parents will take their kids to see anything animated if given an option, which could help the film, but the impending release of Pixar’s Cars 3 could depress attendance afte rthe first two weekends.”
Box Office Results: $73.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The film didn’t underperform, but it wasn’t a breakout hit.

Wonder Woman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Superhero films have a weak relationship with Academy voters who tend to ignore these features in favor of more traditional efforts. Still, the period setting and the win by Suicide Squad last year could put Wonder Woman into play in several tech caetgories.”
Oscar Results: Right now, the film has a lot of good will going towards it. Plenty of people have talked about it being a surprise Best Picture nominee. However, I seriously doubt it will make any progress towards anything except tech categories and even there, the chances are limited.
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Like its counterparts in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, the DC Extended Universe films have all been successes and I see little reason to expect this one not to be. The only question is can a female-led superhero movie succeed? The studio doesn’t seem to confident in that, nor has Marvel since neither studio has put a woman in the lead before now. Still, the character is incredibly popular and whatever it loses in the male demographic will certainly be made up by woman flocking to see only the second female-headlined superhero movie ever (Supergril was the first in 1984 and it was a box office bomb).”
Box Office Results: $412.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] It was the film we all needed right in this moment. With all the dark and awful things going on in the nation and the world, people really connected to this character and her strength and courage.

June 9, 2017

It Comes at Night

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Horror is a tough sell these days, especially horror that doesn’t have a supernatural theme. That’s unfortunate, but that could hinder this film’s chances.”
Box Office Results: $13.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The film just couldn’t capitalize on its unique premise, probably because the trailer did a poor job conveying it.

The Mummy

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Potential. The film looks incredibly effects-laden, which will certainly boost its chances with the tech branch, but other than the sound and visual effects categories, the film doesn’t have much opportunity.”
Oscar Results: The film’s Oscar chances dwindled to almost non-existent thanks to the utter under-peroformance at the box office. This is the kind of movie that must be a hit to be considered. That there’s a lot of more popular films in competition also works against it.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Tom Cruise has had few box office bombs and could bolster Universal’s attempt at creating its own Cinematic Unvierse surrounding its legendary monster movies. While it will do decently well at the box office, I suspect it won’t be nearly the hit the studio is expecting. That’s especially true considering what surrounds it in terms of blockbuster releases.”
Box Office Results: $80.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The Universal Monster Universe didn’t get off to an auspicious start. This performance is anemic. While no one was expecting it to be huge, a sub-100 performance is particularly disappointing.

My Cousin Rachel (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Rachel Weisz would have to compete in a very weak race for actresses to trancend the June dumping of this period Daphne Du Maurier adaptation. The film could still figure in the Production Design or Costume Design categories, but it may have stiff competition from the likes of The Beguiled.”
Oscar Results: The film was modestly received, but that won’t inhibit it’s chances at the Oscars. It still remains a dark horse Production Design and Costume Design contender, but my gut says it won’t be recognized.
Box Office Prospects: $2.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Literary adaptations rarely do well at the box office, at least adaptations of works that aren’t popular with modern audiences. While My Cousin Rachel is based on the acclaimed Daphne Du Maurier’s work, Du Maurier hasn’t been a major name at the cinema in over 60 years.”
Box Office Results: $2.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Performing exactly where expected even if not a terribly exciing result.

June 16, 2017

47 Meters Down

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. After The Shallows became a box office disappointment, shark movies don’t seem like they are as appetizing to audiences as they were when Jaws dominated cinemas in 1975.”
Box Office Results: $44.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Although it didn’t quite perform where the studio likely wanted, these results aren’t awful on such a low budget.

All Eyez on Me

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While the film could certainly perform similarly to fellow music biopic Straight Outta Compton, this film doesn’t look like its being bolstered by the cultural zeitgeist that Compton was. As such, I suspect it may be a bit of a dud.”
Box Office Results: $44.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Another film that performed about to expectations, suggesting the marketplace may be stabilizing in some ways.

Cars 3

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Cars was the second Pixar film to lose Best Animated Feature and it was the first to have a sequel that failed to score a Best Animated Feature nomination. That could spell trouble for its third outing. That said, this film looks to be more akin to the original than the sequel, which could bode well for its chances. That, paired with the rule changes and lack of notable competition so far, could give it a shot.”
Oscar Results: There aren’t a lot of high quality Best Animated Feature contenders this year, so some of the weaker efforts might make it through.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While Pixar has had plenty of success at the box office, the Cars series has done weaker business. That said, it’s still certain to be a hit and Cars 2‘s lesser performance won’t be the hindrance that it might be for another studio.”
Box Office Results: $152.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] Although it didn’t perform as high as the previous films in the series, this result is adequate for Disney, though perhaps unexceptional for Pixar and a sign that the franchise may be done.

Rough Night

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Female audiences were once catered to with great zeal. Then the male-dominated blockbusters of the 1970s and 1980s pushed women’s considerations to the back-burner. Still, whenever studios target films at female audiences, they are consistently rewarded and this female-driven, raunchy comedy should perform quite well with audiences of all genders.”
Box Office Results: $22.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] If the film had been better, it might have sparked a huge rush at the box office. Ultimately, it wasn’t as funny or as engaging as initially thought, so audiences stayed away.

The Book of Henry (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. On paper, this looks like one of those child-anchored family dramas that Academy voters have embraced in the past, but after the utter collapse of the terrific A Monster Calls, all bets are off and the June release will probably hurt the film tremendously even if it is brilliant.”
Oscar Results: With the box office bomb on its record, there’s little chance the film plays to the end of the year.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s possible that this film resonates with fans of the book, but whether that will translate into major success depends on how the studio handles its distribution. Right now, they appear to be heading towards a platform release, but anything could derail its potential.”
Box Office Results: $4.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Considering the film’s premise, it’s not at all surprising that it couldn’t find much of an audience. Being dumped in June didn’t help matters.

I, Daniel Blake (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $1.25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Certain artistic voices don’t have a lot of success at the box office. Ken Loach is one of the many directors who don’t care what they make at the box office and I, Daniel Blake is unlikely to change that. While some British exports, especially ones about working-class families like The Full Monty and Billy Elliot have done well, there are many many others that have not. This will likely be one of them.”
Box Office Results: $0.26 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film couldn’t quite attract normal specialty business and ended up flailing as a result.

June 23, 2017

Transformers: The Last Knight

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. This is another series that the Academy loves to heap with praise. While the Shia LaBeouf films were all Oscar nominees, the last outing, starring Mark Wahlberg was entirely shut out. It’s possible that this Oscar-less franchise is going to be similarly rebuffed, especially with even more direct competition this year than in the year Age of Extinction competed.”
Oscar Results: This series has proven to be an Oscar no-show these days, which suggests it’s still probably a long shot for a nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first three Transformers films were huge successes. The fourth took a major slide at the box office, but was still immeasurably successful. This film will perform on the same level as the fourth, though it could slip further if the long-in-the-tooth franchise doesn’t right itself.”
Box Office Results: $130.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Although it performed well overseas, this dismal domestic performance is further proof that the series has soured on most audiences.

The Beguiled (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. This is Sofia Coppola’s sixth film. Her first was never a contender, but her second, Lost in Translation made her the third woman ever nominated for Best Director. Of that film’s four nominations, including Best Picture, it won a single award for Coppola’s original screenplay. Her follow-up, Marie Antoinette wasn’t too much of an Oscar player, but it did manage a single nomination, which it also won for Best Costume Design. Her next two films were Oscar no-shows, so her history is uneven. However, the period detail of this film is sure to bring her film serious consideration in both Production Designa and Costume Design categories. With enough critical support, it could also compete in numerous other categories, including above the line acting, directing, writing, and production categories.”
Oscar Results: The film has good reviews, but this box office suggests a general lack of interest. It’s possible the film receives a renwed push at the end of the year, but it may be too little too late.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Sofia Coppola isn’t a box office draw. Her films tend to play well at the art house, but seldom outside of it. Still, even her most recent films haven’t been particularly successful. That however, will like change with this film starring Nicole Kidman and Colin Farrell.”
Box Office Results: $10.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Was the original familiar enough to audiences to discourage their attendance or was the film just not tantalizing enough to specialty box office filmgoers?

June 30, 2017

Amityville: The Awakening

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Although the original Amityville Horror was successful, the sequels weren’t. The reboot in 2005 did well enough, but is there really much interest in an origin story like this? Not likely, but with few supernatural horror flicks at the box office recently, it could be a surprise hit.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film finally released, but not on this particular weekend.

Baby Driver

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film looks like it’s going to have some killer editing in it, but that alone isn’t likely to be enough to get the film Oscar attention. Not only will critics have to shower it with praise, the film will have to do well at the box office and impress the Film Editors branch to make the cut.”
Oscar Results: The film might have had a small chance at Oscar nominations somewhere like Best Film Editing, the film is now saddled with the presence of post-scandal Kevin Spacey, which means it’s toast.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While the film certainly has more excitement involved than the more pensive Drive six years ago, it’s unlikely this movie will have the broad support the Fast & Furious films have had. That being said, it’s possible I’ve utterly undervalued its chances and it does boffo business.”
Box Office Results: $107.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] Energizing the box office at a time when other films are performing below expectations, this film has to be one of the brighter successes of the year.

Despicable Me 3

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The first film was a surprising omission at the Academy Awards. It was expected to be a Best Animated Feature nomination, but missed out. Three years later, it became the first sequel to score a Best Animated Feature nomination when its original failed to do so. There’s every possibility that this sequel will pick up a nomination, but there’s an equal possibility that the sequel curse of this category will claim another victim.”
Oscar Results: It may not be the critical success of prior efforts, but Animated Feature is a rather lackluster slate this year, meaning it could still pull off a nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $350 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. A consistent franchise performance, Despicable Me 3 should easily socre major wins at the box office, racking up plenty of money towards a likely fourth outing.”
Box Office Results: $263.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While the series has shown some strong legs, the film is starting to fade a bit. This result is great, but might not be promising for future efforts.

The House

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This Will Ferrell-Amy Poehler comedy will be filling an empty void at the box office. It will also be the latest adult comedy to try hard to become a box office success. There is plenty of evidence to suggest it will do well, but there are a few pieces of damning evidence to suggest otherwise.”
Box Office Results: $25.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It’s almost impossible to tell when an R-rated comedy will become a surprise hit, but even before this released, it looked like it might be a stinker. The surprising thing was that it did as poorly as it did.