August 4, 2017

The Dark Tower

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Depending on how critics receive it (and, to a lesser extent, audiences), it could compete in creative categories; however, with some (or much?) of the action taking place in a modern Earth, I suspect its chances at Best Visual Effects and the sound categories may be its only hope.”
Oscar Results: The film has failed in all measures, so Oscar is utterly out of reach.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Although Matthew McConaughey’s recent track record at the box office isn’t exciting and Idris Elba hasn’t yet been tested, this popular Stephen King adaptation could be a solid hit for the late summer.”
Box Office Results: $50.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Thanks to the mediocre reviews, the film never managed to catch on with audiences, but the reviews weren’t all of it. Stephen King just doesn’t have the pull he used to, especially in the wake of the more popular It.

Detroit

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Right now, this film is one of the major Oscar contenders based on subject matter and directorial involvement (Oscar winner Kathryn Bigelow). The problem is that it’s releasing in August, which is precisely the wrong place for it to release to be a major Oscar player. If it falters at the box office and/or critics savage it, the film could become DOA PDQ.”
Oscar Results: Originally, the film was supposed to be a major Oscar player, but after its release chatter all but stopped. The chances the film re-emerges are almost nil.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While films that tackle racism in a serious way haven’t exactly been box office catnip, this film could bring a lot of folk to the theater. How many isn’t certain, though.”
Box Office Results: $16.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Even with the support of critics, audiences just weren’t that keen on catching up with a part of American history they aren’t readily familiar with and the trailers didn’t position as more than a historical drama and they don’t typically respond to that kind of film.

Kidnap

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. This film has been bounced around thanks to its production house financial woes. It sounds like an uncomplicated premise and Halle Berry has never proven herself a box office draw, so I suspect this film is being dumped against two bigger players and will suffer as a result.”
Box Office Results: $30.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Halle Berry isn’t a box office draw and has never really been one. Yet, the film managed a decent, if weak result from a lackluster trailer and unoriginal premise.

Wind River (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $0.75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The subject is rife for controversy (white folk coming into Native American territory to solve a crime), but it’s by popular critical darling Taylor Sheridan, so it could have specialty box office appeal even if it can’t ever go wide.”
Box Office Results: $33.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] This isn’t the kind of film that breaks out of the specialty box office, yet it managed to pull in incredibly strong numbers.

August 11, 2017

Annabelle: Creation

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $95 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. At what point do studios stop milking their horror properties? This is probably the point. The first Conjuring was a huge success, its sequel was less so. This could be a further drop in popularity, but without suitable alternatives at the box office, it will probably still be popular.”
Box Office Results: $102.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] The franchise continues to steam ahead pulling in a sizable audience.

The Glass Castle

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Everything about this project seems like a solid bet for Oscar consideration; however, the August release is worrisome. Destin Cretton’s Short Term 12, which helped launch Brie Larson towards an eventual Oscar win, was a brilliant film and showed he had great potential, so this could be a major player.”
Oscar Results: The film was a critical failure and did only marginal box office numbers, meaning its Oscar chances are basically gone.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While I doubt a wide release actually happens, the film has good potential to be a platform-release hit. It’s based on a popular memoir, but that won’t be enough to make it a box office success.”
Box Office Results: $17.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Had this been released to the specialty box office, it might not have made this money; however, this kind of result isn’t good for a wide release film.

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first film was a surprise hit and without major competition, this one could do well also, but the I suspect it doesn’t have the kind of appeal a proper major animation series needs and will ultimately be a disappointment.”
Box Office Results: $28.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] For whatever reason, the first film made $64 million at the box office. Those numbers should never have bolstered the chances of a sequel, yet they did. The end result is utterly predictable: an unmitigated flop.

Good Time (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. The film was well received on the festival circuit, but that kind of attention doesn’t always translate to Oscar success. That’s especially true considering this year’s competition. Ultimately, I suspect the film might make a small play for a screenwriting citation, but will be othewise ignored.”
Oscar Results: While the film has managed to earn some critic citations, its Oscar chances are still poor.
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. At the specialty box office, the film is likely to parlay its festival buzz into a minor boon. However, this is the kind of movie that seems a bit stale in execution and the trailer doesn’t pay it many favors, so a runaway hit is unlikely.”
Box Office Results: $2.02 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For a specialty box office release that was a minor festival success, these numbers are solid.

Ingrid Goes West (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. It’s the kind of dark comedy that specialty box office watchers love to check out. It stars a couple of prominent indie players (Aubrey Plaza and Elisabeth Olsen) and is, based on early word of mouth, a humorous comedy. This should help it do modestly well on the indie circuit.”
Box Office Results: $3.02 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Another festival player that hit the specialty box office hard and ended up doing fairly well.

The Only Living Boy in New York (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. This is the kind of movie that feels like every other romantic dramedy that’s been made in the last two decades. As a result, I can’t imagine it performing well. It’s directed by Marc Webb, which could give it a boost, especially if critics respond well to it as they have so many others. The problem is that the film’s premise is problematic and may just not have broad enough appeal.”
Box Office Results: $624 K M
Thoughts: [Flop] A lack of advertising and a premise that didn’t seem that exciting pretty much secured this film’s failure.

The Trip to Spain (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The prior two films in this series have performed well at the specialty box office. I expect the same for this film.”
Box Office Results: $1.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The first two films were successful at the specialty box office, yet the third underperformed the original by almost half.

August 18, 2017

The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. With precious little against which to compete, this Samuel L. Jackson/Ryan Reynolds R-rated comedy has the potential to become a huge late-summer hit.”
Box Office Results: $75.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While you can’t say it was a smash hit, these numbers are solid for an August R-rated comedy.

Logan Lucky

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The premise has been done before, but positioned at a NASCAR event might bolster its performance potential with blue-collar types in he Midwest, which could help it to box office success. Of course, against something like Hitman’s Bodyguard, it’s potential is heavily diminished.”
Box Office Results: $27.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Why the distributor decided this would be an excellent wide release is anyone’s guess, but the film managed to underperform its already low performance numbers.

August 25, 2017

All Saints

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. This looks like a faith-based film and most of those haven’t been performing well at the box office. The August release may be further harmful. This seems like a pre-Labor Day Dump film.”
Box Office Results: $5.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This Christian-targeted film managed to end up where most such releases do: at the bottom of the box office.

Birth of the Dragon

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The advertisement campaign has been virtually nil, making a case for the film’s box office success fade. The subject matter might appeal to Bruce Lee fans, but several similar productions in the past haven’t exactly burnt up the box office.”
Box Office Results: $6.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] While the film did anemic numbers, it still managed to win the pre-Labor Day weekend, which is no mean feat.

Crown Heights

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. For an August release to have no prominent trailer out and no advertising campaign, this is likely to be a major dud.”
Box Office Results: $238 K M
Thoughts: [Flop] The film was hindered by the day-and-date Amazon release.

Polaroid

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Horror hasn’t had much luck this year (or much in recent years either). The release window is problematic as well. This suggests the film might open weakly and fade fast afterwards (like horror films are wont to do).”
Box Office Results: $ M
Thoughts: This film’s release date was pushed back into 2018.

Tulip Fever (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film looks to have been dumped, but that won’t stop the designers and costume designers of the Academy from considering the film. While I doubt it will ultimately be nominated, it has modest potential.”
Oscar Results: The Weinstein Company not only destroyed this film’s chances at Oscar consideration, but the studio has become a pariah.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Period films like this one are catnip on the specialty circuit. While it will never be a huge hit, it will perform well enough to make a small sum.”
Box Office Results: $2.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While these numbers are solid for a specialty release, a better release push by Weinstein could have resulted in higher returns.