January 6, 2017

Amityville: The Awakening

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s been 12 years since the last attempt to making an Amityville franchise and that film, starring Ryan Reynolds, made an inflation-adjusted $87 million. That’s decent, but this film hasn’t gotten much advertising done and stars no one that would draw audiences to the theater.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Release date pushed back to 6/30/17.

Underworld: Blood Wars

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. That the franchise keeps making solid bank, it should continue that trend. However, this is the longest wait time of the series at five years, so it’s possible it underperforms.”
Box Office Results: $30.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Is this the end of the franchise? He weak box office seems to suggest it is, but that hasn’t stopped others from continuing beyond the advisable.

I, Daniel Blake (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. While the film has received excellent notices from critics, it doesn’t seem to have gotten a qualifying Oscar run and, even if it does before the end of the year, it’s unlikely to figure into any awards race.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $1 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Ken Loach isn’t a box office magnet, even at the specialty box office. Since this film hasn’t gotten any major awards traction, I anticipate it performing poorly at the box office.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Release date pushed back to 6/16/2017.

January 13, 2017

The Bye Bye Man

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. These teen-targeted horror films just don’t have legs at the box office. The concept here is so similar to the Candyman films that it will be lucky to even approach the $53 million inflation-adjusted that film received.”
Box Office Results: $22.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Horror has been taking some hits at the box office recently. This is further indication that not all horror is equal or brings people to the cinema.

Monster Trucks

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. I’m sure there’s a segment of the population that will want to see this, but it may not be a very large potion.”
Box Office Results: $33.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This film was utterly unnecessary and the box office confirms that fact. Having a kid-friendly film is one thing, but making it look so amazingly awful is an entirely other thing.

Sleepless

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Without much competition and a notable actor getting top billing, it may be able to pull off a solid victory at the box office and might even outperform expectations.”
Box Office Results: $20.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The box office was not kind to prominent actors in January, evinced by the complete flop of this Jamie Foxx-starrer.

The Comedian (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. There was some meager chatter for Robert De Niro as Best Actor, but it looksl like that buzz has faded.”
Oscar Results: Failure. It released limitedly on Dec. 9, 2016, making it ineligible for 2017 and a failure in 2016.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Robert De Niro is well liked, but releasing at the Art House isn’t the best bet for a film that could score at the wide box office with the right marketing campaign.”
Box Office Results: $1.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Robert De Niro isn’t a box office draw, although he’s been in plenty of successful films. This film flew under the radar, releasing in December instead of January as expected. Further, critics didn’t care for the film, which made it a tougher sell at the specialty box office.

January 20, 2017

The Founder

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. A postponed release date and a lack of screenings have almost certainly doomed The Founder, a film that could have brought Michael Keaton his long awaited Oscar. Right now, it seems like the film will be all but forgotten.”
Oscar Results: Failure. Another film that had an eligibility release in 2016 and was utterly ignored. The Weinstein Company is terrible about this sort of thing.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This film doesn’t sound like the kind of movie that rakes in beaucoup bucks at the box office, but with wide familiarity with McDonald’s, it could be a surprise hit.”
Box Office Results: $12.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The story of Ray Kroc was always going to be a tough sell to audiences, but Michael Keaton is well known and on something of a career renaissance, but the studio botched the film’s roll out, dumping it unceremoniously into wide release with minimal effort and marketing. It’s no surprise it flopped.

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Christian-themed films haven’t been doing well at the box office recently. Whether it’s a recognition of the cheap quality of them or that Christians are tired of being pandered to isn’t certain.”
Box Office Results: $2.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Movies aimed at Christian audiences are subject to more fickle affections than are horror films. One film ends up with broad support and boffo box office, while another founders and sinks under its own pretentious weight.

Split

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. M. Night Shyamalan hasn’t had a big hit in more than a decade. While his films still garner some level of support, this one should outperform most of his recent output.”
Box Office Results: $138.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] It might have been fair to say at one point that M. Night Shyamalan was a has been. However, he’s now had two well received releases with this most recent being a major box office success.

xXx: Return of Xander Cage

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. It’s been 14 years since Vin Diesel rose to prominence thanks to XXX. He’s much better known now and with the cult popularity of this film, it should be quite successful.”
Box Office Results: $44.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The curse of delay. Too many years after its initial release, audiences just weren’t keen on revisiting the world of Xander Cage.

The Red Turtle (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. It’s currently one of the top competitors for the Best Animated Feature Oscar. While I doubt it can win, a nomination may not be out of the question.”
Oscar Results: Success. The film did do quite well and scored a Best Animated Feature nomination as largely expected.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Unless your animated film is put out by one of the big outlets, your box office chances are meager at best. Even the legendary Hayao Miyazaki barely made anything at the box office. This film, without an Oscar win, isn’t likely to do that well.”
Box Office Results: $0.92 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Animated films from foreign filmmakers are already tough to sell. Making matters worse are animated films that have no dialogue. Studio Ghibli struggles even with a renowned filmmaker like Hayao Miyazaki in tow, it’s no surprise that this film was an even bigger box office failure. GKids does not have the marketing arm to handle this kind of film.

January 27, 2017

Bastards

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The dearth of comedies early in the year may help this film find an audience.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Release date pushed back to 12/22/2017.

A Dog’s Purpose

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The trailer was well received and the subject matter makes it perfect to appeal to a very broad demographic. Marley & Me made over $140 million in 2008, so it’s entirely possible this film could approach that.”
Box Office Results: $64.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] There was significant controversy surrounding the film thanks to a deceptively-edited video showing one of the dog actors being put into a perilous position. Yet, even with the bad press, the film still managed to do decently, though it might have cracked $100 million without it.

Gold

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Partial. While the film is being pushed for Oscar consideration, the only thing that’s likely to get a nomination is the original song from the film.”
Oscar Results: Failure. Receiving a 2016 qualifying run, the film was utterly ignored even for its Original Song, which was at least a small possibility.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Contrary to popular belief, Matthew McConaughey is not a box office draw. All of his blockbusters have been hits for entirely other reasons. Most the films that have succeeded on his name have made less than $60 million. This film isn’t likely to improve on those numbers.”
Box Office Results: $7.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Matthew McConaughey is not a box office draw contrary to his own belief. When he appears in indie dramas or does trade on his good looks (like in this film), he cannot command box office fealty.

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. All of the films in this franchise have been decent box office performers. None of made less than $40 million, but none of them have topped $61. That gives us a suitable middle ground for this supposedly final chapter to perform. It could outperform this simply because it’s supposed to be the last film.”
Box Office Results: $26.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The purportedly final chapter of this series had an anemic box office performance, suggesting that its time has most definitely come.

The Salesman (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. Although the film isn’t going to play like A Separation did, this film is on the cusp of a Best Foreign Language Film nomination. Beyond that, it likely has no prospects”
Oscar Results: Major Success. Thanks to the rhetoric of the U.S. President, The Salesman went from also-ran to frontrunner to winner of Best Foreign Language Film, something that wasn’t foreseen prior to its nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Even Asghar Farhadi’s Oscar-winning film A Separation managed only to top just over $7 million. Since this film isn’t likely to have as much prestige or bounce from the Oscars, $5 million is probably an optimistic number.”
Box Office Results: $2.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film was never going to be a major box office player. Foreign language films just aren’t a necessity in most filmgoers’ minds these days.