April 7, 2017

The Case for Christ

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The producers are hoping for a result similar to God’s Not Dead, but are more likely to deliver in the Soul Surfer range.”
Box Office Results: $14.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Proof that all Christian films cannot automatically become box office sensations.

Gifted

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. This is the kind of movie that pleases audiences, but is forgotten at Oscar time.”
Oscar Results: None. Without box office success, the film’s chances become little more than the pipe dream they always were.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While Chris Evans is a familiar figure and Octavia Spencer has been garnering plenty of attention with a string of high profile successes, the film doesn’t seem like it’s destined to be as popular as her other films.”
Box Office Results: $24.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] While the film seemed good natured, audiences didn’t quite respond as they might have with a better marketing campaign.

Going in Style

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. These types of geriatric comedies have done both good and bad business in recent years. Morgan Freeman’s last such effort, Last Vegas, made $63 million. This should do roughly the same business.”
Box Office Results: $45.018 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] What should have been a hit for the geriatric comedy niche, this one simply didn’t earn much interest.

Smurfs: The Lost Village

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Animated films not produced by one of the major studios don’t tend to do exceptionally well at the box office. While The Smurfs are a popular ’80s product, so they could do better than expected.”
Box Office Results: $45.02 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While the Smurfs are a prominent ’80s sensation, the live-action films were inherently more likely to succeed than a straight animated feature.

Colossal (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. While the film could have broad audience appeal, the producers are releasing it at the specialty box office first, which may ultimately mean nothing, but it could do well if it makes it wide.”
Box Office Results: $3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Anne Hathaway only has so much pull with audiences and this film was never going to break out.

Their Finest (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. It has the earmarks of an Oscar contender, but the April release casts some doubt on it.”
Oscar Results: None. If it had any opportunities, the box office failure probably scrapped them.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This type of British drama can do well with audiences if it gets solid reviews and dominates the specialty box office. There sisn’t much indication of that as yet.”
Box Office Results: $3.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] A subject that Anglophiles might have flocked to see, but there aren’t nearly as many of those as producer would wish. Even those that there are won’t be likely to step foot away from their DVD players and streaming devices just for this kind of film.

Your Name. (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Failure. It was eligible for last year’s Oscars but was not nominated.”
Oscar Results: Same as previously expressed.
Box Office Prospects: $0.75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Anime just doesn’t have the box office capability as traditional animation. While this was huge in Japan, U.S. audiences are likely to ignore it.”
Box Office Results: $5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Anime continues to struggle at the U.S. box office, so this result isn’t unexpected.

April 14, 2017

The Fate of the Furious

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. While this franchise has been steadily increasing the amount of cash it brings in, it has to reach a tipping point some time and the prior film, the last with Paul Walker, is likely to have been that high point. As such, I expect this new entry to do well, but not nearly as well as its predecessor.”
Box Office Results: $225.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] After the massive success of the predecessor, the franchise took a dip in its eighth outing. It’s still a succeed, but the bloom may be coming off the rose.

Spark: A Space Tail

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The poor animation style and corny preview suggest this movie won’t do exceptionally well at the box office. Space Chimps is similar in style and in 2008, it barely made over $30 million. Even accounting for inflation, I doubt it would do better than that.”
Box Office Results: $0.196 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Proof that not all animated films can draw in family audiences.

The Lost City of Z (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Maybe. The film was a critical success and outperformed expectations. It’s still a long shot for a nomination, but a Best Cinematography nod might be its best opportunity, especially if remembered by critics at the end of the year.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While the trailers paint the portrait of a true-life story, that story doesn’t sound like it will have much appeal, so I doubt it will be much of a success.”
Box Office Results: $8.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] The success of the film lies soley in the attention it grabbed from critics who propelled specialty box office fans to the theater.

Norman (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. While Richard Gere will yet again earn some attention for a possible Oscar nomination, all his other efforts released later in the year and were roundly ignored. The same will likely occur with this earlier release.”
Oscar Results: None. Early-year box office bombs don’t tend to generate Oscar enthusiasm.
Box Office Prospects: $7 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Richard Gere’s career resurgence post-Chicago, has been anemic at best, pathetic at worst. While this film could do as well as his films like Arbitrage, it’s unlikely to approach Amelia-level.”
Box Office Results: $3.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Richard Gere has come a long way since Pretty Woman, sadly, that way has been largely a downward trajectory with Chicago, which succeeded for reasons other than his presence, being the lone exception.

April 21, 2017

Born in China

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. DisneyNature hasn’t had a lot of success since it’s 2009 debut with Earth. While Chimpanzee did the best since in 2012, the subsequen two features have been the lowest attended. That should change with a film that looks at the daily lives of pandas, an animal that has a lot of admirers and should help give the shingle a boost.”
Box Office Results: $13.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] DisneyNature’s efforts at the box office continue to fade. It’s unlikely they’ll ever recover, especially if cuddly pandas can’t do it.

Free Fire

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. While the film has a period aesthetic that could be Oscar catnip, the only chance it likely has is in Best Costume Design and that category doesn’t tend to acknowledge films from early in the year.”
Oscar Results: None. Another box office flop for a festival entry that didn’t have a lot of prospects to begin with.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film has a very Quentin Tarantino-esque vibe and could be a surprise hit, but while Brie Larson, Armie Hammer, and Sharlto Copley have each appeared in box office hits (Hammer, Copley) or are Oscar winners (Larson), none of them have proven to be box office draws in and of themselves.”
Box Office Results: $1.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] While the film won on style points, critics just weren’t able to drum up business for the film, which couldn’t even succeed at the specialty box office.

Leap!

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Animated films can bring droves to the box office, or can keep people away if they don’t seem of sufficient quality or comic value. This doesn’t appear to be either, but targeting girls who are into ballet and young romance, they could do decently well.”
Box Office Results: $N/A M
Thoughts: Release pushed back to Aug. 25, 2017

The Promise

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. On paper, the film looks like an Oscar contender, but the late-April pushback suggests a film that couldn’t muster attention last Oscar season and thus won’t be much of a player this one either.”
Oscar Results: None. The film was a box office bomb and critics weren’t impressed.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Most people know who stars Oscar Isaac and Christian Bale are, but they are most familiar to audiences who enjoy sci-fi and comic book specatacle. This is so far divergent from the type of films they tend to watch that my estimate might even be a bit overzealous.”
Box Office Results: $8.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] War-set epics aren’t incredibly popular these days, especially without major stars who can pull people to the box office outside of blockbusters that succeed whether their name is attached or not.

Unforgettable

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Katherine Heigl gave up a lucrative TV career in the hopes of being a big screen star thanks to her box office success in Knocked Up. While her next two films did well, she has been performing largely in the mid-50 million range, which isn’t terribly great. This movie looks a little more bankable than those prior efforts, but the film seems inordinately cheesy.”
Box Office Results: $11.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Audiences just weren’t interested in this psycho sexual thriller.

April 28, 2017

The Circle

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. This futuristic endeavor has all the earmarks of a potential Oscar contender, but films like Gattaca, which this bears a small resemblance to, haven’t earned Oscar attention in quite some time.”
Oscar Results: None. The film’s failure at the box office and lack of support from critics have doomed any chances it might have thought it had.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Tom Hanks has had some major flops in between major successes, but this Utopian sci-fi feature starring Emma Watson (Harry Potter and Beauty and the Beast) could be a big success for him and her. While it might not appeal to the fans who typically show up for either of their efforts, the subject matter should pick up decent support from others interested in its premise.”
Box Office Results: $20.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Emma Watson wasn’t likely to engage audiences the way she has done in her franchise outings, so this result isn’t much of a surprise, though clearly a disappointing one for the studio.

How to Be a Latin Lover

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Eugenio Derbez is a popular Spanish-language actor and this comedy about a fading gigolo trying to re-assert his latin lover bona fides has a surprisingly funny trailer that could appeal to both his own fans and those not very familiar with his work.”
Box Office Results: $32.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Hispanic audiences turned this Spanish-language comedy into a modest success even if it wasn’t an unqualified one.

Sleight

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film is reminiscent of several high profile hits and misses that put teenagers into positions of wielding great super powers. This effort will have a very narrow demoraphic window to target and like similar recent failures isn’t likely to do very well.”
Box Office Results: $3.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Studios keep trying to catch lightning in a bottle, but clearly those efforts are not paying off.