Spirit Awards voters are set to recognize the best in independent cinema, which has a lot of crossover with the Oscars this year. That said, by the time the awards are given out, the Saturday before the Oscars, their voices won’t have any impact. That won’t really matter and sometimes, the Spirit Awards can be a late indication of the building strength or weakening of Oscar contenders, especially with this year’s packed slate.

SPIRIT AWARDS

Best Feature

Call Me By Your Name (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Florida Project
Get Out (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
Lady Bird (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
The Rider

Wesley Lovell: While recent years have seen a more frequent departure from the Oscars, Spirit voters tend to support the same achievements that are nominated for the corresponding Oscar category. As such, three of this year’s five nominees could be in contention. Get Out would seem the safest bet considering how much support it’s received from critics. Lady Bird and Call Me by Your Name could either win, though I lean towards Lady Bird since it’s directed by indie darling Greta Gerwig.
Peter J. Patrick: Since they tend to go with an Oscar nominee likely as not, I’d say this one was Lady Bird‘s to lose, with Call Me by Your Name its only competition.
Tripp Burton: This is a toss-up this year, with three Oscar Best Picture nominees on the list along with critical darling The Florida Project, and you could make a case in many ways. Get Out was one of the biggest phenomenons of the year, though, and I expect it to do very well Saturday.
Thomas LaTourette: I think that Get Out will probably take this, though it does have stiff competition. Both Lady Bird and Call Me by Your Name could win, but I will still go with Get Out.

Best First Feature

Columbus (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Ingrid Goes West (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Menashe
Oh Lucy!
Patti Cake$ (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: With no Oscar nominees to go by, anything could happen, though Patti Cake$ and Columbus had excellent reviews (not that the others didn’t) and could both benefit from that. While I think Columbus could win, I’m going with the more true indie-style film, Patti Cake$.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m purely guessing on this one.
Tripp Burton: This is a fairly strong list overall, and with no big name film on this list, I’m guessing that Columbus, which has the biggest profile, at least among cineastes, and plays the best to voters.
Thomas LaTourette: I will go with Columbus, just because it has the highest ratings on Rotten Tomatoes.

John Cassavetes Award

Dayveon (Peter, RU:Tripp)
A Ghost Story (Wesley, Tripp)
Life and Nothing More (RU:Wesley)
Most Beautiful Island (Thomas, RU:Peter)
The Transfiguration (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: It’s hard to pick among this group, at least in terms of runner-up. A Ghost Story had far more publicity when it was released, making it the more visible pic. However, anything could happen in this category.
Peter J. Patrick: Another pure guess.
Tripp Burton: A Ghost Story is the biggest name on this list by far, and should win easily.
Thomas LaTourette: Most Beautiful Island sounds like it should win.

Best Director

Sean Baker – The Florida Project (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Jonas Carpignano – A Ciambra
Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name (Peter, RU:Thomas)
Jordan Peele – Get Out (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie – Good Time
Chloe Zhao – The Rider

Wesley Lovell: Unless they choose to go with the indie darling Sean Baker, I suspect that these voters will go for the lone Oscar nominee in the bunch: Jordan Peele.
Peter J. Patrick: I have no idea why Lady Bird‘s Greta Gerwig was omitted from this lineup, but that being the case it’s likely between Call Me by Your Name‘s Luca Guadagnino and Get Out‘s Jordan Peele.
Tripp Burton: If Get Out wins Best Film, will it also win Best Director? They tend to go hand in hand more often than the Oscars, but with a year of so many beloved indies, this could also be a chance for voters to throw a bone to another favorite film. I’m sticking with Jordan Peele having a good night, though.
Thomas LaTourette: Peele should win for Get Out.

Best Female Lead

Salma Hayek – Beatriz at Dinner
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Regina Williams – Life and Nothing More

Wesley Lovell: Frances McDormand is the Oscar frontrunner and against her fellow Oscar nominees (Saoirse Ronan, Margot Robbie), I suspect she has little competition, especially considering her indie roots. Though, Saoirse Ronan could also benefit from her own. Robbie doesn’t have that connection, making her chances slimmer.
Peter J. Patrick: Oscar frontrunners Frances McDormand and Saoirse Ronan will battle this one out with McDormand having the edge.
Tripp Burton: With three Oscar nominees on the ballot, will the Spirit Awards follow suit and give McDormand another award or will they take a chance to honor one of the others? These days the Spirit Awards have been fairly lockstep with their awards, so I’m guessing McDormand wins another prize.
Thomas LaTourette: McDormand, the frontrunner for the Oscar, will probably claim this award as well. Saoirse Ronan is her closeset competition.

Best Male Lead

Harris Dickinson – Beach Rats
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Robert Pattinson – Good Time
James Franco – The Disaster Artist

Wesley Lovell: Two Oscar nominees on this list (and an Oscar failure). Between the two, Timothée Chalamet has the makings of a star and his multi-faceted performances this year alone should bolster his chances over Daniel Kaluuya.
Peter J. Patrick: Another battle between Oscar frontrunners with Timothée Chalamet having the edge over Daniel Kaluuya.
Tripp Burton: With no Gary Oldman, this is a chance for Timothée Chalamet to finally step up and win a major prize. If Get Out has a really good night, though, Daniel Kaluuya could win.
Thomas LaTourette: Chalamet is young, but with two high profile parts in indie films this year, I think he will go on to win. Kaluuya and Pattinson could upset, but I think they will go for Chalamet’s vulnerable acting.

Best Supporting Female

Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
Allison Janney – I, Tonya (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime (RU:Peter)
Taliah Lennice Webster – Good Time

Wesley Lovell: Two Oscar nominees face off against an Oscar no-show. I suspect these will follow the Oscars pattern: Allison Janney over Laurie Metcalf.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m going to go against the grain here and predict Laurie Metcalf with Lois Smith a possible spoiler.
Tripp Burton: Like every other race this year, Allison Janney has the slight edge over Laurie Metcalf.
Thomas LaTourette: Janney has been on a roll and probably will take this as well, though they might go for Metcalf’s more subtle work.

Best Supporting Male

Nnamdi Asomugha – Crown Heights
Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Barry Keoghan – The Killing of the Sacred Deer (RU:Tripp)
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Benny Safdie – Good Time

Wesley Lovell: There’s only one Oscar nominee here alongside one failed Oscar nominee. Sam Rockwell should win easily, though Armie Hammer could be his best competition.
Peter J. Patrick: This one should be an easy victory for Sam Rockwell, with Armie Hammer his closest competition.
Tripp Burton: If there’s an Oscar nominee on the list, the Spirit Awards tend to give them their award, so Sam Rockwell should easily pick this one up.
Thomas LaTourette: Rockwell should add this to his collection, along with the Oscar.

Best Screenplay

Beatriz at Dinner
Get Out (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Lady Bird (Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
The Lovers
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Three Oscar nominees again, an increasingly common occurrence at the Oscars. This time, i think Get Out could eke out the win over Oscar frontrunner Three Billboards with Lady Bird a potential spoiler.
Peter J. Patrick: This is another close race between Oscar frontrunners, with Best Feature nominee Lady Bird having the edge over non-nominee Three Billboards.
Tripp Burton: This could be the best chance voters got to check Lady Bird off on their ballots, and should be a great chance to see Greta Gerwig up on a stage for probably the only time all weekend.
Thomas LaTourette: It may well go to Three Billboards, but I wonder if Get Out of Lady Bird stand a little bit more of a chance of winning here.

Best First Screenplay

The Big Sick (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Columbus
Donald Cried
Ingrid Goes West (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Women Who Kill

Wesley Lovell: I suspect Get Out in the main screenplay category is due to Spirit Awards rules against duplicate submissions. That means we’re left with the only Oscar nominee of this bunch as a clear frontrunner: The Big Sick.
Peter J. Patrick: This should be an easy one for Get Sick, with Ingrid Goes West its closest competition.
Tripp Burton: Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani have been along for the ride with no chance of winning an award all season, but this is their best chance to give an acceptance speech.
Thomas LaTourette: The Big Sick should easily take this.

Best Editing

Call Me By Your Name (Peter)
Get Out (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Good Time
I, Tonya (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
The Rider

Wesley Lovell: I, Tonya is the only Oscar nominee here, but I don’t think it has what it takes to upset non-nominee Get Out (which may have been ignored due to genre bias), though I wouldn’t be shocked if it won. Call Me by Your Name, an Oscar nominee for Best Picture could also do well, though its editing has sometimes been maligned.
Peter J. Patrick: A tough call, but I’m going to go with Call Me by Your Name over Get Out.
Tripp Burton: I, Tonya is the Oscar nominee of the bunch, but Get Out is such a master class in pacing that I can’t imagine voters ignoring it on the way to a big night.
Thomas LaTourette: This could easily go to Get Out, but the skating sequences of I, Tonya should win.

Best Cinematography

Beach Rats
Call Me By Your Name (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Columbus (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Killing of the Sacred Deer (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
The Rider

Wesley Lovell: There are no Oscar nominees on this list, though Columbus has gotten strong reviews for its photography. That said, I suspect the gorgeous environs of Italy will set Call Me by Your Name up for an easy victory.
Peter J. Patrick: This one looks like a victory for Call Me by Your Name.
Tripp Burton: Call Me by Your Name is one of the most gorgeous films of the year, and many were surprised it didn’t get an Oscar nomination, so I’m guessing that it wins easily among a lower-budget slate of nominees.
Thomas LaTourette: The sun-filled shots of northern Italy should propel Call Me by Your Name to a win.

Best International Film

BPM (Beats Per Minute) – France (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
A Fantastic Woman – Chile (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
I Am Not a Witch – United Kingdom
Lady Macbeth – United Kingdom
Loveless – Russia (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The Oscars nominated A Fantastic Woman and Loveless, but they passed on BPM. That being said, BPM had some of the best reviews of the year and also secured several prizes from precursor season. I suspect it will be running a close second to A Fantastic Woman, the perceived Oscar frontrunner, though Loveless could also surprise.
Peter J. Patrick: I’d say Oscar nominee A Fantastic Woman over another Oscar nominee, Loveless.
Tripp Burton: There are a lot of films on this list that I imagine voters could go for, but I’m guessing the timely Oscar nominee A Fantastic Woman just edges out the French hit BPM.
Thomas LaTourette: From what I have heard, BPM should win over the Oscar nominees.

Best Documentary

The Departure
Faces Places (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Last Men in Aleppo (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Motherland
Quest (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Two of Oscar’s nominees for Documentary Feature are listed here. Faces Places is such a classic indie-spirited production by acclaimed Agnès Varda and I think that may be enough. However, fellow Oscar nominee Last Men in Aleppo could surprise, as could any of the others.
Peter J. Patrick: Even though the nomination doesn’t have her name on it, 89-year-old legend Agnès Varda should glide to victory on this one.
Tripp Burton: I can’t imagine that voters will pass on giving Agnès Varda an award and seeing her up on stage, but the audience-pleasing Quest could pull enough votes its way to sneak in a big surprise.
Thomas LaTourette: Quest already won the Truer than Fiction award at the Spirits, but the charming Faces Places or The Departure also sound like really good films.