Let’s take a look back at our prior preview and see where we were right, wrong, and everything in between.

September 1, 2017

Unlocked

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film is being released on one of the worst days of the year for box office success, so it will likely be a failure.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film was never released and has not been rescheduled.

September 8, 2017

9/11

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. No one asked for this film and it’s unlikely that anyone will give it much notice.”
Box Office Results: $0.17 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] No one really expected a film about the 9/11 terrorist attacks to do well with audiences, but even these numbers are dismal.

Home Again

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Reese Witherspoon hasn’t been a box office draw, so I’m not quite sure what her film’s prospects are. However, I’m pretty sure it won’t be for much.”
Box Office Results: $27.02 M
Thoughts: [Flop] While the trailers were charming, the film just never interested audiences.

It

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Failure. While the film earned incredible reviews and was mentioned a few times during Precursor Season, it was just too much to consider as a potential Oscar nominee, especially with the more beloved horror film Get Out doing far better.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The TV miniseries is the gold standard of Stephen King adaptations. I cannot see how a film like this, which eliminates the time-hopping narrative in favor of a singular story, will please many fans of the lengthy King novel.”
Box Office Results: $327.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] A cultural zeitgeist swirled around this Stephen King adaptation, which managed to do tremendous business at the box office.

September 15, 2017

All I See Is You

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. For a film listed as releasing wide, there sure isn’t a lot of information out there about the film. My bet is that it gets pushed back.”
Box Office Results: $0.217 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The concept just wasn’t that interesting to most audiences.

American Assassin

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The cast could bolster the film’s box office potential, but it still seems like a tough sell for a movie.”
Box Office Results: $36.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] What the studio hoped would be the beginning of a new franchise resulted in the end of a new franchise.

mother!

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Aronofsky’s films have been Oscar magnets on three occasions and Oscar-ignored on three, so whether this one will follow Black Swan, The Wrestler, or even Requiem for a Dream remains to be seen.”
Oscar Results: Failure. While the film did get solid reviews, it was just too bizarre for Oscar voters and materialized almost nowhere, though Jennifer Lawrence did pick up a Razzie nomination, but that seems more like sour groups than golden raspberries.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Darren Aronofsky has, surprisingly, generated back-to-back hits with Black Swan and Noah. I suspect this film will be harder to generate buzz for and will subsequently underperform those two films, but still do well enough.”
Box Office Results: $17.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] While the potential was there, the audiences weren’t. This was such a bizarre film that it’s no surprise it ultimately flopped.

September 22, 2017

Friend Request

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. That the film has been pushed back almost a year suggests there isn’t much confidence in it, so I suspect it will be completely forgotten against the two stronger performers releasing this same weekend.”
Box Office Results: $3.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Audiences are fickle when it comes to horror films and this one just didn’t pique their interests.

Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. The first film wasn’t an Oscar contender, so I suspect that even if this one were popular, there aren’t many places that it could successfully be campaigned.”
Oscar Results: Failure. It got a Costume Designers Guild nomination, but the film was largely ignored, much like its predecessor.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film was a surprise $128 million hit, so I suspect this sequel will perform well, likely outperforming the predecessor thanks to the excellent additions to the cast.”
Box Office Results: $100.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] While the second film underperformed its predecessor, it still managed to top $100 million, which may be enough to encourage a third film.

The Lego Ninjago Movie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. With The Lego Batman Movie a key contender for a Best Animated Feature nomination, having two Lego movies in competition might be too much. Considering the Academy’s animation branch ignored The Lego Movie, a double reversal seems unlikely.”
Oscar Results: Failure. While it was on the eligibility list for Best Animated Feature, not even the better reviewed Lego Batman Movie could pull off a nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The Lego Movie was a huge success with $257 million while The Lego Batman Movie from earlier this year did surprisingly light business ending with only $175 million. This film, which is based on a popular, though not as popular as Batman property, should still do well, but might struggle to top $100 million.”
Box Office Results: $59.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Although the market for this particular film was fairly small, the film still managed to underperform expectations.

Battle of the Sexes (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. Although the film has been discussed as a major Oscar player since it was announced, the fact that it’s releasing in September might not be a great sign. It will need strong support from critics to hold on until December.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The September release was a bad sign. Although the film picked up a few major citations (SAG & Globes), the film was mostly ignored by critics leaving it in the dusty.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. For a biopic starring Steve Carell and Emma Stone, it could be a hit, but as it’s a limited release looking for Oscar consideration, I doubt it will overperform.”
Box Office Results: $12.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] An Oscar season player based on a true story just didn’t have enough to appeal to audiences, especially since it seemed to target the wrong potential moviegoers.

Stronger (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. The September release hurts the film’s chance and Jake Gyllenhaal will have some incredibly stiff competition this year, so unless he’s at the absolute top of his game, and critics absolute adore the performance and film, I suspect the Academy will forget about him by the time they cast ballots.”
Oscar Results: Failure. Jake Gyllenhaal and Tatiana Maslany both got some traction during Precursor Season, but it wasn’t enough to counteract the dismal box office to propel the film to surprise nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Patriots Day, also about the Boston Marathon Bombing, made only $31 million in limited release, though Mark Wahlberg isn’t as big a draw as Jake Gyllenhaal. Still, this film looks to be a more subdued character drama, which might hinder its chances.”
Box Office Results: $4.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Jake Gyllenhaal is not a box office draw and although this film promised plenty of emotional dramatics, it released at the absolute wrong time of year to capitalize on it.

Victoria and Abdul (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Judi Dench has played many a queen and so it would seem her playing Queen Victoria might be a chance for the Academy to recognize the aging thespian. Still, competition is fierce and there are plenty of underrewarded figures in competition this year, so it’s possible she gets ignored.”
Oscar Results: Minor Success. While Judi Dench didn’t manage a Best Actress nomination, the film still managed to pull out two nominations for Costume Design and Makeup & Hairstyling.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. If it becomes an Oscar contender, it could do better than this, but a colonial drama about Queen Victoria and the young man who teaches her to embrace new things isn’t box office catnip.”
Box Office Results: $22.2 (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Anglophiles are a small, but dedicated group of moviegoers in the United States, so that may explain why this film did fairly well in spite of the mediocre-to-negative reviews. Now that it’s also an Oscar nominee, albeit just in craft categories, it should add on another million or so before leaving theaters.

September 29, 2017

American Made

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Tom Cruise is a box office draw regardless of his public antics. His flms rarely make less than $70 million, even the atrocious ones, so I suspect that this one will still be successful.”
Box Office Results: $51.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Tom Cruise is a box office draw, but this premise didn’t seem to interest his myriad fans, especially since he didn’t play a genuine hero.

Flatliners

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The original film made $61 million in 1990 dollars, which is about $129 million by today’s standards. The last time a semi-popular 1980s/1990s genre film was remade (Red Dawn), the new film made only slightly more in 2012 dollars than it did in 1984 dollars. As such, I’d suspect a similar situation to befall this remake, except in reverse, making less than the predecessor.”
Box Office Results: $16.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Whomever thought it was a good idea to resurrect the box office hit from 1990 apparently didn’t think that decision through very well.