Let’s take a look back at our prior preview and see where we were right, wrong, and everything in between.

October 6, 2017

Blade Runner 2049

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The original film has since become a classic. The sequel might also, but the Academy has seldom shown an interest in recognizing such productions. It could show up in a few tech categories, but unless it’s among the cream of the crop, it’s not going to get much chance above the line.”
Oscar Results: Success. With two Oscar winers for Cinematography and Visual Effects, out of five nominations, Blade Runner 2049 did well, though not quite well as I had hoped.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Although the original film made less than $100 million at the box office back in 1982 (adjusted for inflation), the film has earned a reputation as one of the big cult hits of the 1980s. As such, there will be plenty of interest in it from old and young audiences, which could make it a solid success.”
Box Office Results: $92.05 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Some might say that sub-$100 million isn’t that impressive and for the sequel to a cult classic, it might not seem that way, but these numbers are solid.

The Mountain Between Us

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Kate Winslet has a better chance elsewhere. Although the film seems to have a lot of dramatic heft, a film like it has seldom been in the Oscar conversation and this won’t result Idris Elba’s first nomination.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The film became D.O.A.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Neither Kate Winslet nor Idris Elba are box office draws and this film looks a bit too heavy on the drama and light on the action to draw a sizable crowd.”
Box Office Results: $30.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] As much as everyone admires Kate Winslet and Idris Elba, the premise alone was probably a non-started for most audiences and the reviews didn’t help.

My Little Pony: The Movie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Is there really enough interest in My Little Pony to be a huge success at the box office? I doubt it, but stranger things have succeeded.”
Box Office Results: $21.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Fans of My Little Pony are plentiful, but not plentiful enough to make this film a head.

The Florida Project (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Apart from Willem Dafoe’s supporting performance the film doesn’t sound like the kind of thing Oscar voters go out of their way to recognize. While Sean Baker’s Tangerine might have had been a distant factor in the Oscar conversation two years ago, his films have always been off the beaten track.”
Oscar Results: Unexceptional. The film headed into Oscar season with plenty of critical acclaim and lots of recognition from precursor groups, but in the end, the indie couldn’t muster much more than a nomination for Supporting Actor Willem Dafoe.
Box Office Prospects: $0.6 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There’s little about the film that screams box office hit, even on the specialty circuit.”
Box Office Results: $5.8 (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Thanks to the terrific reviews from critics, this indie made a solid run at the specialty box office.

October 13, 2017

The Foreigner

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s been some time since Jackie Chan was a major box office draw and many of those films were successes for other reason. This film might tickle the interests of revenge/thriller fans, but that group doesn’t appear to be that large these days.”
Box Office Results: $34.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Jackie Chan isn’t a box office draw in the U.S. and while this wasn’t much of a success, it also wasn’t that big a flop either.

Happy Death Day

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film doesn’t sound that appealing and for a niche horror film to truly succeed, it needs to engage the primal interests of horror fans. I’m afraid it hasn’t done well on that front so far.”
Box Office Results: $55.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] Horror can often exceed expectations and this one did.

Marshall

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. It’s hard to keep count of how many performances Chadwick Boseman has been in the Oscar conversation for, but I suspect the same will surround this film. A period drama examining a key figure in American history. Whether it succeeds with Oscar depends entirely on how good it is.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The film started out with the kind of reviews that don’t impress enough to sell tickets and with little more than an original song to contend at the Oscars where it was nominated, but lost.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This period biopic doesn’t have a lot going for it. A number of films about prominent historical figures haven’t had a lot of box office success in recent years, though this one might be an exception.”
Box Office Results: $10.05 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Talk about a mismarketed failure. There are plenty of folk who would like to see a biography of Thurgood Marshall, but this film was not that biography.

Breathe (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. This period drama looks at handicap in a familiar and predictable way. That won’t be enough to lift it to competition status, but Andrew Garfield is sure to be in the conversation for a Best Actor nomination.”
Oscar Results: Failure. It was once thought to be a major player the way The Theory of Everything was, but reviews largely sunk the film’s chances.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The closest analog to this film would be The Theory of Everything. That film was successful because of the Oscar attention it received. This film seems to be trying for the same trajectory, but I don’t think it will have the same level of support thanks to the lack of famous figure at the center of the story.”
Box Office Results: $0.49 M
Thoughts: [Flop] With mediocre reviews, the film not only failed to expand successfully, it also managed to flop on the indie circuit.

Goodbye Christopher Robin (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The film seems to have lost a bit of steam recently and doesn’t seem to have a lot of hope of scoring Oscar nominations now that we’ve seen its trailer.”
Oscar Results: Failure. This is another film that couldn’t must much support from critics and thus disappeared almost as soon as it was released.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Poor advertising, an interesting but flawed premise, and a lead that doesn’t exactly inspire box office chatter suggest an unexceptional performance.”
Box Office Results: $1.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Had this film been marketed better, it might have made a decent earning, but it wasn’t and it didn’t.

October 20, 2017

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The previous film was a hit in October of last year. This year, they are trying to hit another one out of the park. The box office tallies should be on par, but may end up lower if it doesn’t improve upon its predecessor.”
Box Office Results: $47.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Compared to the original, this has to be seen as a disappointment, though for Tyler Perry, it’s not a terribly unexpected result for him based on recent trends.

Geostorm

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. It could be a Best Visual Effects contender, but long gone are the days of mediocre films truly competing there even if they have Transformers in the title.”
Oscar Results: Failure. Even if you have solid effects, you can’t contend without support from critics and even they didn’t think it was deserving.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Producers really want a box office phenomenon on the scale of The Day After Tomorrow, but the film looks outlandish beyond belief, which may hinder its potential for success.”
Box Office Results: $33.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] While it performed to my expectations, this kind of film doesn’t get made unless there’s some belief that it could be a box office smash. That was not the case.

Only the Brave

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. While the film won’t be a competitor in major categories, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects all have potential for the film.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The film crashed at the box office and while it made a brief appearance at the Visual Effects Society awards, it wasn’t ever considered a real Oscar player.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Although the premises aren’t that alike, the last major film about firefighters to succeed at the box office was Backdraft 26 years ago. There are similarities there, which could bolster its chances at the box office, especially in the face of more wildfires across several northwestern states.”
Box Office Results: $18.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Another film with a marketing campaign that failed to spark interest in its characters or situations.

Same Kind of Different As Me

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. This film has been delayed for some time and its white savior narrative isn’t likely to play well at today’s box office.”
Box Office Results: $6.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This film got bounced around the release calendar so often that it’s no surprise the film failed, not because of the ever-changing release date, but what that kind of movement usually suggests about a film’s quality.

The Snowman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Tomas Alfredson hasn’t had a lot of Oscar success and although this seems like an engaging and interesting thriller, the Academy doesn’t tend to recognize them with much frequency.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The film was maligned by critics and was a box office flop. The Oscars were clearly not going to recognize that.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. With only two American releases under his belt, Tomas Alfredson doesn’t have much of a track record for building box office success, but the film looks far more acceessible than his prior two films, which could give it an advantage at the box office. Of course, it’s facing off against a number of potential blockbusters, which could hinder its potential.”
Box Office Results: $6.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Without critics in your corner, a film like this just can’t pull in audiences.

Wonderstruck (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. While Todd Haynes hasn’t had much luck in the Best Picture or Best Director departments, he knows how to make films that not only score acting nominations, but also technical ones. This film looks like it could follow a similar path.”
Oscar Results: Failure. While the film did make a handful of appearances during the precursors, it wasn’t well supported by critics and thus disappeared almost as soon as it arrived.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Todd Haynes, as a director, hasn’t had much box office success, but that is unimportant to him as long as he makes a quality film. Will he ever have a runaway success? It’s doubtful considering his narrative foci.”
Box Office Results: $1.06 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The critics can make or break an indie film like this and clearly the broke it.

October 27, 2017

Jigsaw

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Apart from the original film, which sits in 5th place on the franchise’s box office success list, the Saw series saw a slow downward progression in its box office tallies. We’re now seven years removed from the last film. Is that enough to give it a boost at the box office? Producers hope so.”
Box Office Results: $38.05 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] You can’t go home again. While it didn’t do as badly as the penultimate film in the original series, it underperformed the final film, suggesting that a reboot was not the wisest idea.

Suburbicon

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While the film boasts the writing credits of the Coen brothers, most who’ve seen it say it isn’t quite a Coen film, which will hinder its Oscar chances. While George Clooney started out his directorial career with some success, Good Night, and Good Luck. is his only one so far. This could be a spoiler, but so far it doesn’t seem like it has much of a chance.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The film had a lackluster response from critics, which pretty much sank its chances at the Oscars.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Commercial success hasn’t been a hallmark of director George Clooney’s filmography. His last film was his most successful at $78 million. That’s largely due to the lack of broadly appealing subjects he tackles. This film looks more like something audiences might give a chance.”
Box Office Results: $5.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The trailer was quite funny, but audiences didn’t seem that interested in the film’s dark comedy.

Thank You for Your Service

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Attempting to mine patriotism for box office business has been a recent trend, but not necessarily a successful one. While this film isn’t directed by Peter Berg, it very much feels like a film he might make and his last attempt didn’t go so well doing just over $31 million in business. That’s after a string of stronger performances. Of course, director Joseph Kosinski has two prior film, both of which were minor successes, so he could be onto something. Those films, however, were box office catnip. This film is not.”
Box Office Results: $9.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not all pro-military films can become a hit and this one was clearly one of the ones that couldn’t.

The Killing of the Sacred Deer (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While Yorgos Lanthimos broke through to the Oscars with The Lobster, don’t expect this film to be much more successful. A writing nomination could be possible and an acting citation isn’t too far out of the realm of possibility, but the rest of the film just hasn’t had the support from the festival circuit to be a major competitor.”
Oscar Results: Failure. There was some expectation that the film could earn an Oscar nomination for writing, but the Original Screenplay category was overpacked with contenders, so it was completely ignored.
Box Office Prospects: $9 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There’s not a big market for the films of Yorgos Lanthimos. The Lobster benefited from strong critical acclaim and Oscar consideration. This film won’t have as much luck. His latest film, however, has an added weapon in Nicole Kidman who has had some success bringing people to theaters. I suspect it won’t be much of a boost for this kind of movie.”
Box Office Results: $2.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The specialy box office is a fickle creature and while this total disappoints a bit, it’s not entirely unexecpted.

Novitiate (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. While the film hasn’t had a lot of early previews, talk of former Oscar winner Melissa Leo picking up another nomination has been strong.”
Oscar Results: Failure. For much of the year and into precursor season, Melissa Leo was thought to be a Best Supporting Actress contender, but somewhere along the way she fell to seventh or eighth place in most estimations and was ultimately ignored. The failed distribution model may have contributed to that.
Box Office Prospects: $2.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There isn’t a big market for this type of film and even if Melissa Leo earns an Oscar nomination, the film will still struggle mightily at the specialty box office.”
Box Office Results: $0.58 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The marketing for this film wasn’t sufficient and the film just couldn’t get enough of a break to break out.