Let’s take a look back at our prior preview and see where we were right, wrong, and everything in between.

December 1, 2017

The Disaster Artist (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. There’s some chatter about James Franco being nominated for this, but other than at the Golden Globes, I don’t see it happening.”
Oscar Results: Minor Flop. The Academy didn’t take a very positive view of the James Franco-starrer, with it getting shut out of all but one category: Adapted Screenplay and that made it in thanks to a very weak lineup.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There is no more specialized an audience than for this film. Although the film has earned solid reviews, unless you’re familiar with The Room, it likely won’t appeal to you.”
Box Office Results: $21.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Taking the audience behind the scenes of one of the most popular campy movies ever made tickled some fancies, but not enough to make it an unqualified success.

The Shape of Water (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. Reviews out of Toronto were so good that it would be shocking for this film not to be a major Oscar player in possibly double-digit categories.”
Oscar Results: Major Success. Not only did the film overcome decent, but not astronomically great reviews to pick up a sizable number of nominations, but it also took home quite a few, including the big one, the first time a science fiction film had ever won the top prize.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Although Guillermo del Toro hasn’t exactly had a great box office track record, the film feels more accessible than his films like Hellboy and Pan’s Labyrinth. With excellent reviews, it could be a big holiday hit.”
Box Office Results: $63.9 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While the Academy cleary appreciated the film, audiences didn’t. What should have been a much bigger box office success turned into a rather unexceptional performer.

Wonder Wheel (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. There was some early buzz for Kate Winslet, but reviews haven’t been great for the film and Winslet’s performance, thouigh well received, hasn’t been igniting chatter as much as it once did. She could still be nominated, but her chances are much weaker now than they were a couple of months ago.”
Oscar Results: Major Flop. While the film was never a major player, Woody Allen can never be ignored. Yet, he was.
Box Office Prospects: $12 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Acclaimed Woody Allen tends to make decent month, usually above $20 million. Mediocre Woody films tend to perform far worse. I suspect this will fall on mediocre side of things.”
Box Office Results: $1.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Against the backdrop of the #MeToo movement, Woody Allen’s past antics, even if hotly debated, were bound to drag his latest film through the mud. Not only did it, but it performed uncharacteristically poorly, even among Allen’s past flop projects.

December 8, 2017

Just Getting Started

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Morgan Freeman largely makes comedies these days and most of them are modest successes. Looking at the likes of Going in Style, Last Vegas, and RED, solid box office is expected.”
Box Office Results: $6.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The age of the cheap geriatric comedy has come to an end when the likes of Morgan Freeman and Tommy Lee Jones can’t pull in much more than a piddling $6 million.

I, Tonya (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. While Margot Robbie has her fair share of talk about a Best Actress nomination, the film’s best chances lie with supporting actress Allison Janney. The script could also get recognized. Robbie is the next most likely nominee, but beyond that I doubt it has much chance.”
Oscar Results: Success. While it didn’t perform exactly as well as was expected, it still managed several prominent nominations and even took home an Oscar for Allison Janney’s performance.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Tonya Harding was a big part of the cultural zeitgeist once upon a time, but most people think of her mostly as a footnote these days. The film has gotten strong reviews, which might bolster its chances, but even with the expected Oscar nominations, this period drama doesn’t sound like it will be that big.”
Box Office Results: $30 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While it didn’t break out at the box office, its tally far outshines what was initially expected of it.

December 15, 2017

Ferdinand

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Now that much of this year’s animated crop have been seen, strong reviews could bolster the film’s chances with Oscar. However, if it receives largely negative reviews, that could make its chances for a Best Animated Feature nomination vanish.”
Oscar Results: Success. While it didn’t pick up anything else, it did secure a Best Animated Feature nomination, a fate that was never assured.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Although the reviews are sure to be lowsy, the film will be a big hit. There isn’t much else out there and the trailer is modestly funny. If reviews actually end up being strong, it could go much higher.”
Box Office Results: $84.3 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It’s rather surprising that an animated film like this didn’t become a bigger success. While its tally is nothing to be ashamed of, it’s not as grand as it likely should have been.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. While the film is not likely to compete in Best Picture or any of the above-the-line categories, all of the tech categories are in play from Original Score down to Visual Effects. I would expect the film to ultimately pick up anywhere from 3 to 5 nominations in total.”
Oscar Results: Success. All of the previous Star Wars second chapters underperformed their predecessors. Yet, The Last Jedi didn’t underperform nearly as much as it could have.
Box Office Prospects: $850 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. There has never been anything quite like the Star Wars saga in terms of box office potency. While the stand alone Rogue One only made a paltry $532 million, Episode VII, which preceded this one, made nearly a billion just in the U.S. While I think the second film will probably take a bit of a dip now that the excitement of the first new Star Wars movie in over a decade has subsided. It will still do incredibly well, just not as well as The Force Awakens.”
Box Office Results: $620.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Even against high expectations, the third film topped them all and handily.

December 20, 2017

The Greatest Showman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While the movie is sure to figure in several below-the-line categories, the big question is how well it will do in the top categories. No one has seen the film yet and if critics hate it, it’s sure to collapse under its own weight. If they love it or even modestly praise it, it could be a major player in all of the top categories.”
Oscar Results: Unexceptional. Critics didn’t like it, but audiences did. It picked up a single Oscar nomination for Original Song and lost.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Blockbuster musicals have a natural affinity for strong box office numbers. While this hasn’t been advertised much as a musical so far, it should still do quite well. Strong reviews could add lots more to these numbers. It will probably be the second biggest hit over the Christmas holiday.”
Box Office Results: $173.7 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] While I expected it to do well, it seemed like its debut wasn’t going to deliver much. However, word of mouth propelled far above what most expected.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $125 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The original film, starring Robin Williams, barely squeaked past $100 million. Today, it would have made $200 million. This indirect sequel has all the makings of another $100 million-plus hit, but whether it can eclipse its predecessor remains to be seen.”
Box Office Results: $404.2 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] A modest performance is all that anyone expected, but after a killer debut, the film took the box office by storm, doing far better than anyone could have ever dreamed.

All the Money in the World (on 12/22/17)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. With Kevin Spacey being edited out and replaced with Christopher Plummer on short notice, it’s probably that the film doesn’t feel whole. It may also have been tainted enough by Spacey’s presence to not be of much concern to Oscar voters. Not that it was much of a contender before the whole Spacey affair.”
Oscar Results: Unexceptional. While the film was never much of an Oscar player. Christopher Plummer stepped in at the last minute and the stunt paid off with an Oscar nomination, making him the oldest acting Oscar nominee in history.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Even before the allegations against supporting actor Kevin Spacey, the film had weak prospects at the box office. Although he has now been replaced by Christopher Plummer with re-shoots destined to be edited in before its expected December release, curiosity seekers might be its only demographic. Ridley Scott’s serious dramas don’t tend to do excessive business at the box office, so its chances were already meager. Still, if the film is well reviewed, it could do much more business. However, I suspect that since the film hasn’t really been seen, the delay itself suggests it might not have been worth the time.”
Box Office Results: $25.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The film had very little going for it other than the unwanted publicity of having Kevin Spacey in a primary role. While they quickly replaced him, it didn’t engage the curiosity of audiences very much, but it did decently for the type of film it was.

Downsizing (on 12/22/17)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film wasn’t as well received as past Payne films, which could be a harbinger of things to come. Still, even without the boost of major critical praise, the film is certain to be in competition and Payne has often been dismissed as a potential Oscar player, but all of his films have been nominated to date and everything after Election has been nominated for multiple awards.”
Oscar Results: Flop. Alexander Payne suffered a rather humiliating defeat when this film not only failed to impress critics, but couldn’t muster enough support among Oscar voters to earn anything, not even Hong Chau a deserved nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While his last film, Nebraska, only made $17 million, there wasn’t much about it that screamed box office hit. Prior to that, director Alexander Payne’s films were all solid performers with The Descendants doing the best. What works in this film’s favor is not just how well Payne can get his movies seen and loved on a wider scale, but the appearance of star Matt Damon and a premise that is sure to bring curious folks to the theater, could be a good sign. I suspect it might be Payne’s first $100 million picture.”
Box Office Results: $24.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Without critics to support it, Downsizing severely underperformed. While its tally was pretty good for similar films by non-familiar directors, Alexander Payne should have done much better than this.

Father Figures (on 12/22/17)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Competition over Christmas is fierce and a comedy like this is sure to get lost in the shuffle. That it has no holiday theme and two stars who haven’t exactly sold their movies at the box office could mean the film does decently, but not overly so.”
Box Office Results: $17.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] There are two types of films that follow this mold: the kind that fail spectacularly and those that succeed spectacularly. This film was the former.

Pitch Perfect 3 (on 12/22/17)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first flm made a simple $65 million, but it built up such a strong fanbase on home video that the sequel made more than $184 million, almost tripling its predecessor. The third, and supposedly final, film isn’t likely to perform that well, but anything is possible with these pitches.”
Box Office Results: $104.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] All good things must come to an end and while the film series had performed far better than anyone ever expected, the final film of the series went out below expectations. While its tally was nothing to be ashamed of, it wasn’t that great either.

Hostiles (Limited, on 12/22/17)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Originally, there was talk of Christian Bale and the film being in play for Oscar consideration, but that chatter hasn’t been as strong lately as it once was. While Bale is still in the mix, his chances aren’t great at the moment. A Golden Globe nomination might bolster his chances.”
Oscar Results: Flop. The film flew so far under the radar that Oscar voters probably never even thought about considering it.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. I don’t think anyone is particularly clamoring for a film like this, so outside of the specialty box office, I’m not sure the film can perform much better than the abortive The Promise last year.”
Box Office Results: $29.8 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It’s hard to explain how a film like this could fail to enter the Oscar race, but still do decent box office on the specialty circuit.

The Post (Limited, on 12/22/17)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. Sight unseen, this is sure to be a major Oscar contender. Once reviews trickle in, we’ll know more, but considering the poorly reviewed War Horse still managed six Oscar nominations, don’t expect fewer for this film, especially in the acting department.”
Oscar Results: Most expected Spielberg’s dramatic look at the Washington Post exposé of the Pentagon Papers to be a major Oscar player, but when it came in with a scant two nominations, even the fact that it was nominated for Best Actress and Best Picture didn’t make it much of a success.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Spielberg’s weakest box office performers are always his dramas, especially historical ones. Although there are a few that have supplanted expectations, this one isn’t likely to be one, especially considering its heavily political overtones.”
Box Office Results: $81.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] In spite of the Oscar failure, the film still had Spielberg’s name attached along with Meryl Streep’s and Tom Hanks’ and that seemed like just enough to earn it some cash.

December 29, 2017

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film hasn’t gotten a lot of attention because most critics really haven’t gotten to review it yet, but those who have have been universally positive. That means Bening is sure to be a Best Actress contender and the film could show up in a few other categories, including Best Adapted Screenplay.”
Oscar Results: Flop. While the film was well received, it never quite made it past the myriad obstacles in its way on the search for Oscar.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. It would be a shock if this film became an outsized hit. Looking only at Annette Bening films of the last decade and few, if any of them, made more than $10 million and most were around $5 to $7 million or less. That this is geared mostly toward Oscar nominations at this point, it seems unlikely to do much better than her last film, 20th Century Women.”
Box Office Results: $1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Without an Oscar campaign and an unceremonious dumping into the U.S. market, Film Stars was an unmitigated flop.

Molly’s Game (Limited, on 12/27/17)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Sorkin’s screenplay will contend and Jessica Chastain will contend in Best Actress, but the film’s chances elsewhere are modest or non-existent, so while the film is sure to compete, actual nominations may be few.”
Oscar Results: Unexceptional. While it never lived up to early expectations, it was still nominated. It never had a chance to win, but at least it was nominated?
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. If you look solely at Jessica Chastain’s box office trajectory, you’ll that films in which she’s the lead generally underperform those where she’s co-lead or supporting (there are, of course, exceptions). Paired with Aaron Sorkin, though, the dynamic shifts. Films for which Sorkin wrote the screenplay have performed fairly well with Steve Jobs as the biggest exception. With the high stakes element of the film, it could do quite well, but the talky nature of Sorkin’s screenplays may keep the grosses modest.”
Box Office Results: $28.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Oscar didn’t take the bait and audiences didn’t either. Still a hit at the specialty box office, it was nothing quite like the studio might have initially hoped given the talent involved.

Phantom Thread (Limited, on 12/27/17)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. This is said to be star Daniel Day-Lewis’ last film, which should get him nominated for Best Actor and possibly poised for a male record of a fourth Oscar. That said, Anderson’s films have all been major Oscar players with only Punch-Drunk Love and Inherent Vice stumbling. That means it will be a contender in Best Picture, Best DIrector and several other above-the-line categories and possibley Film Editing and Costume Design below the line.”
Oscar Results: Success. Releasing very late in the year, some thought the film might get lost in the shuffle, but it exceeded expectations and pulled in several nominations, a total that was higher than most predicted. It even managed a single win for Costume Design.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Apart from his Best Picture success There Will Be Blood, all of his films have performed in the $10 to $30 million range suggesting he has a finite fanbase. That said, this would still be a solid set of numbers, even for a specialty box office Oscar contender.”
Box Office Results: $21 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] For a film like this, it would have been a disappointment if it had made less than $20 million, but with the Oscar campaign and the buzz, it should have topped out far higher than it did.