February 5,2016
The Choice
The Choice
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Without a major name at the top of the bill, itโs hard to see this as performing better than modestly. In the Nicholas Spark arena, the films that have become hits starred relatively familiar faces. Thatโs not the case this time.”
Box Office Results: $18.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The era of Nicholas Sparks adaptations may finally be over with this awful box office performance
Hail, Caesar!
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Never count out the Brothers Coen, but their comedies donโt do well with the Academy, which is why this is releasing so early in the year. That said, with the period costuming and production design, this could break their comic curse.”
Oscar Results: It’s possible the Coens will be forgotten by the end of the year, but some below the line nominations are possible and, in a strange turn of events, future young Han Solo Alden Ehrenreich could be a Best Supporting Actor contender.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Joel and Ethan Coen have had both hits and misses, but significantly more misses. They direct outright comedies and outright dramas and things in between. As for their complete and zany comedy films, the two best box office performers starred major, familiar faces, most notably George Clooney. With that in mind, I think this would could be a great deal of fun with Clooney being joined by Channing Tatum, Scarlett Johnasson, Jonah Hill and a couple of other familiar, though not box office-familiar, names. It should be a hit.”
Box Office Results: $30.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] For the Coens, this isn’t bad; however, for a film that looked like it could have been a crowd-pleaser, this is somewhat disappointing.
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Zombie comedies have performed well at the box office and, with a title like this, it could easily do better box office than normal period dramas.”
Box Office Results: $10.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Considering the subject matter, the film should have been a rousing success, but even those who found the concept interesting didn’t bother to turn out.
Viva (Limited)
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Failed. Film was on the Foreign Language Film shortlist, but failed to earn a nomination.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Had the film earned a Best Foreign Language Film Oscar nomination, its chances would have been better; However, as it stands, it will have to rely solely on those who enjoy Queer Cinema, which isnโt a very bounteous group of cinemagoers.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Release Date pushed back to April.
February 12,2016
Deadpool
Deadpool
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There have only been five Marvel comic book adaptations that have secured an R rating and, outside of the Blade trilogy, they werenโt a success. However, the marketing campaign for this film has been phenomenal and a new era may be about to be born for Marvel properties with R ratings.”
Box Office Results: $363.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] No one could ever have imagined a result like this. A stellar box office performance followed a huge outpouring of support for the biggest R-rated comic book movie ever.
How to Be Single
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There arenโt many examples of romantic comedies featuring all-female casts. That could mean weโre entering new territory and all estimates are hampered by that. I suspect it wonโt be a major hit, because the stars just arenโt that stellar in terms of box office draws, but I suspect it will be popular enough to merit a solid return and possibly a sequel.”
Box Office Results: $46.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The numbers aren’t bad, but they could have been much higher, which makes them seem weak.
Zoolander 2
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. A 9-year separation between original and sequel didnโt stop Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues from outpacing its predecessor. However, itโs been 15 years since the original Zoolander made $45 million and ultimately became a cult favorite. I think it will ultimately outperform its predecessor, but I donโt think it will be the sizable hit they are expecting.”
Box Office Results: $28.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It just goes to show you that waiting too long for a sequel isn’t a wise idea.
A War (Limited)
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Secured. It received a nomination for Best Foreign Language Film. It is unlikely to win.”
Oscar Results: It received an Oscar nomination, but lost.
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. With an Oscar nomination for Best Foreign Language Film under its belt, the film is poised to parlay that support into a healthy box office tally. Unfortunately, it still wonโt be that huge.”
Box Office Results: $0.122 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It’s disappointing to see so many Oscar nominees for Best Foreign Language Film fail to earn box office attention.
Where to Invade Next (Limited)
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Failed. It was on the Documentary Feature shortlist, but failed to earn a nomination.”
Oscar Results: It was on the Documentary Feature shortlist, but failed to earn a nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. While he currently has the most popular documentary of all time on his roster, the rest of his films have been box office weaklings. For documentaries, they still do quite well, but without any awards support, this one may struggle to live up to those othersโ examples.”
Box Office Results: $3.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional]
February 19,2016
Race
Race
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. The film would have to be utterly phenomenal to play well with the Academy and a February release suggests that it isnโt.”
Oscar Results: With a box office flop and no backing from critics, the film is out of the competition.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. As the biopic on James Brownโs life, Get On Up could only pull in $30 million, what hope does this film have of triumphing at the box office? How about 42, the story of another major sports figure? It made $95 million. Then again, thereโs Ali which only made $58 million. A lot depends on cultural zeitgeist, release windows, stars and production team. That makes it incredibly difficult to predict where this film goes. However, itโs seemingly limited advertising so far may presage a failure rather than a success.”
Box Office Results: $19.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The lackluster previews and advertising may have had something to do with the film’s underperformance at the box office.
Risen
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Since the 1970s, Biblical epics havenโt done incredibly well at the box office, Passion of the Christ being the sole exception. The last such film to release to theaters, Son of God, did decently, but approximately $60 million isnโt an immense success. Of course, that film suffered from being cut together from a popular TV miniseries, which may have inhibited its chances.”
Box Office Results: $36.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While there is still a market for this type of film, it’s a small market and these results showcase that.
Viral
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. This is a film that may have two built-in audiences, those interested in the Pandemic subgenre and those interested in just horror thrillers. Itโs possible that it disappoints either or both of these audiences and suffers for it.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Pulled from the release schedule
Embrace of the Serpent (Limited)
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Secured. It received a nomination for Best Foreign Language Film. It is unlikely to win.”
Oscar Results: It received an Oscar nomination, but lost.
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Foreign language pics rarely do excellent box office business and since no one will be talking about this film becoming an Oscar winner, I doubt it does that well.”
Box Office Results: $1.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] This isn’t a bad total for a foreign language film, especially one with an Oscar nomination behind it.
February 26,2016
Eddie the Eagle
Eddie the Eagle
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. There arenโt many examples of Olympics-oriented inspirational sports dramas at the box office, but the two most recent examples Cool Runnings (1993) and Miracle (2004) show thereโs an audience for it. The difference here is that Disney put out those prior to efforts and Fox is releasing this one. Donโt expect it to live up to those decade- and two decade-old examples.”
Box Office Results: $15.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Disney has had no luck at the box office with its original pictures. If it’s an adaptation or an animated film, though, watch out!
Gods of Egypt
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Wrath of the Titans shows that there is support for mythology-based features at the box office, but with so much flak being levied at this filmโs whitewashed depiction of Egyptian gods, donโt expect it to draw too many people to the theater.”
Box Office Results: $31.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It must be galling for so many event pictures to bomb at the box office.
Triple 9
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. With a cast like this in an action thriller, you have to believe itโs going to be one of the more successful films released in the early months of the year.”
Box Office Results: $12.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] February wasn’t the best window in which to release a film like this. No support from critics certainly didn’t help.
The Witch
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There is a distinct possibility that its originality will lead to solid box office returns, but thereโs equal potential for it to flop for being set too far in the past.”
Box Office Results: $25.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] With the level of praise the film received, it’s surprising it didn’t perform better. Perhaps the period setting was enough of a turn off to traditional horror fans that it just couldn’t overcome the preconceptions.
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny (Limited)
Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Netflixโs prior theatrical day-and-date release ended up buried because distributors didnโt want to compete with streaming, an untenable business model for them. Netflix is doing the same thing with their release of the sequel to Oscar winner Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Donโt expect people to rush out to see it or theaters to rush and book it.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Released directly to Netflix, not to theaters
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