April 1, 2016

Amityville: The Awakening

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The Amityville franchise has been a relative box office weakling, never exceeding standard horror film grosses outside of its original 1979 run. This one doesn’t seem to have much anticipation built around it and the premise is flimsy enough that it may not even do this well.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Pulled from Release Schedule – rescheduled for Jan. 6, 2017

Collide

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A studio with limited success as a distributor from a director with no track record and a cast that fails almost as often as it succeeds makes for a very unlikely hit. Throw in its perpetually pushed back release date and if this if film is a hit, I’ll be astounded.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Pulled from Release Schedule – has not been rescheduled

God’s Not Dead 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. There’s a market for righteously indignant religion-themed movies where any semblance to reality is found only in the minds of those who see the world in black-and-white. It will be a hit because its predecessor was.”
Box Office Results: $20.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Although the original was a hit, the sequel was significantly less so. There might still be a market for these films, but it’s on home video and not the big screen.

Everybody Wants Some!! (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. A Dazed and Confused for ’80s fans, this Richard Linklater production isn’t likely to appeal beyond those familiar with his work and those who recognize the similarities to Dazed.”
Box Office Results: $3.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] No one expects Richard Linklater to be a box office behemoth, though this result isn’t nearly up to expectations.

The Man Who Knew Infinity (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There’s not a huge market for this type of historical drama about mathematics, so I expect that I may be overselling its chances based on pedigree alone.”
Box Office Results: $3.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Limited advertising. Mediocre reviews. This film was bound to be ignored and it was.

Meet the Blacks (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $12 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Long gone are the days of Scary Movie‘s dominance of the horror spoof movement, so don’t expect too much from this limited release film.”
Box Office Results: $9.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional]

Miles Ahead (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Some might say that Don Cheadle has a shot at a nomination, but April may just be a smidge too early for a film likely not to do well at the box office to carry to the end of the year.”
Oscar Results: With its awful box office performance and early release, it’s certain the film will be forgotten come Oscar time.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unexceptional. Other than Straight Outta Compton, you have to go back 11 years to find a music biopic that did well theatrically. Miles Davis doesn’t have the level of familiarity that NWA or Johnny Cash did and even biopics based on the Beach Boys and James Brown have failed to ignite interest in their subjects.”
Box Office Results: $2.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Biopics about famous musicians should be much bigger successes than this. The studio choked on the advertising campaign.

April 8, 2016

Before I Wake

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. I’d be surprised if this is a hit. The film’s been pushed back too many times to have much faith in its chances.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Pulled from Release Schedule – has not been rescheduled

The Boss

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The film may not have the potential of Spy or any of her other paired comedies, but this one should still do nicely, ending just above her Tammy.”
Box Office Results: $63.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] For Melissa McCarthy to fail with a weak box office performance like this, we should be questioning her viability as a box office draw.

Hardcore Henry

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Apart from curiosity seekers, this film looks like it will be dead on arrival and do similar business to the likes of Parker, The Mechanic and every other weak Jason Statham action thriller.”
Box Office Results: $9.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The video gamers at whom this first-person film was targeted can live the action in their own games, so it’s no surprise they didn’t show up at the theater.

Demolition (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “After a near-miss Oscar nomination for Nightcrawler and a lot of lauded work just prior and after, I suspect Gyllenhaal will earn his second Oscar nomination soon and if not for this, for something else. The rest of the film isn’t likely to score nominations, though.”
Oscar Results: You don’t come back from a box office disappointment to win Oscars, so it looks like Jake Gyllenhaal will have to wait for another effort.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Jake Gyllenhaal doesn’t sell tickets and this film doesn’t seem to be anything beyond your prototypical Gyllenhaal indie feature, so I wouldn’t expect much from it.”
Box Office Results: $1.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Jake Gyllenhaal has never been a box office draw, but after high profile performances in recent films, he should have been able to command a much stronger performance than this.

Louder Than Bombs (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. This is the kind of movie that, back in the 1980s might have scored a handful of nominations. Think Ordinary People. However, the concepts have become so well worn that Oscar just doesn’t notice anymore.”
Oscar Results: It will be a distant memory for Oscar voters, if they even ever watched it.
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Jesse Eisenberg either stars in films that are destined at inception to be box office draws or stars in films so far off the beaten track that only the most loyal fans and cineastes will find him. This appears to be the same sort of situation.”
Box Office Results: $0.163 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This film was made for the specialty box office, but even they weren’t interested.

April 15, 2016

Barbershop: The Next Cut

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film was a hit, but its sequel dropped off a bit, which may explain why it’s been 12 years since the series saw a new entry. With the climate the way that it is and the topicality of the film’s message, I suspect this might do better than my estimate by quite a bit.”
Box Office Results: $54 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Considering the popularity of the original films, the recent spate of films with lengthy windows between prior outing and current effort has proven that they just don’t ignite the box office in the same way anymore.

Criminal

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Kevin Costner’s box office successes have been limited to pre-sold features. Other than his supporting roll in Man of Steel, the last movie he made that topped $60 million was Waterworld 21 years ago. Most of his films have been under $50 and while the presence of some other major talents might bolster the film’s chances, I suspect it won’t be a high water mark for his career.”
Box Office Results: $14.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Another box office failure for Kevin Costner. He must be getting frustrated by this point.

The Jungle Book

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It might secure some below-the-line Oscar nominations, but not very many and it is unlikely to win any of them.”
Oscar Results: The film is certain to pick up Oscar nominations in the tech categories, though where beyond Best Visual Effects, I’m not sure. It doesn’t seem to have much of a shot in other areas.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. There’s no reason to believe that Disney’s heavy marketing of this film won’t net it some serious bank after the exceptional performances of several live-action films based on their animated portfolio.”
Box Office Results: $363.5 (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Who can deny that Disney magic is a wonder. While their live-action slate of recent years hasn’t been great, the same cannot be said for its animation-to-live-action adaptations. Those have been performing so stupendously well.

Colonia (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There’s little indication that this based-on-real-life period drama will do very well at all.”
Box Office Results: $0.015 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Emma Watson, like Daniel Radcliffe, cannot bring people to the theater outside of the Harry Potter universe.

Green Room (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $1 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Were it releasing wide, I might give it a shot to tap into the horror audience, but a limited release will likely doom the film’s chances.”
Box Office Results: $3.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] With strong word of mouth, the film easily outperformed my meager expectations. It wasn’t a huge hit, but it did quite well all things considered.

Rio, I Love You (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first film in the “I Love You” series, Paris, je t’aime, made just under $5 million back in 2007. New York, I Love You made just over $1.5 million two years later. I don’t know that the series has enough built-in support six years after its last release to merit such a high prediction on my end, but ticket prices have inflated, so it’s possible.”
Box Office Results: $0.032 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The “I Love You” series doesn’t seem to have much steam in it.

Sing Street (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film has some early buzz, but nothing that has made it seem like much of an Oscar threat.”
Oscar Results: Without a solid box office performance, all the plaudits in the world aren’t going to help secure Oscar success. It could still make a play in Best Original Song, but beyond that, I doubt it will be remembered.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Only two of John Carney’s films have been released to the box office. Once was the first and it made just south of $10 million. His next, Begin Again, came in with just over $16 million. The latter had a notable name in the lead, the former was a surprise hit. Good reviews will help Sing Street, but not nearly as much as one would hope.”
Box Office Results: $3.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] John Carney has had box office hits before, but whether it was inaccessibility or poor advertising, this one just couldn’t build on its strong reviews to earn strong box office numbers.

April 22, 2016

Elvis & Nixon

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. A case could be made for either Kevin Spacey or Michael Shannon for a nomination, but Shannon has better opportunities this year and no one is in a rush to nominate Spacey for anything.”
Oscar Results: This film has already been forgotten.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. I think this might get some people who are curious about the movie into the theater, but it’s not likely that it will do much business beyond that.”
Box Office Results: $1.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The release window was scaled back to the specialty box office, which will account for its small numbers, but even then they are smaller than normal.

The Huntsman: Winter’s War

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. The first film managed two Oscar nominations, Best Costume Design and Best Visual Effects. Both categories could be in play again this year, but nothing will win.”
Oscar Results: The film has too much competition to be of much influence on this year’s campaigns.
Box Office Prospects: $175 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film did exceptional box office, but it was felt that the Chris Hemsworth character had a better chance of propelling a sequel to success. We’ll see how that works out for them.”
Box Office Results: $48 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Although Chris Hemsworth was the best thing about Snow White and the Huntsman, removing her entirely from the follow-up doesn’t give the audience confidence. The trailers weren’t that interesting and that didn’t help.

April 29, 2016

Keanu

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Fans of Key and Peele are sure to have an interest in the film, but I doubt the lackluster reviews will help the film mount a strong box office run.”
Box Office Results: $20.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] What can you expect from a semi-popular, but largely unfamiliar comedy duo who didn’t get a boost from critics, who largely didn’t care much for it.

Mother’s Day

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Garry Marshall’s holiday series has had an uneven history. Valentine’s Day had an impressive run of $110 million. New Year’s Eve on the other hand had a rather anemic $55 million finish. I suspect this film will fall somewhere in between likely leaning towards the lower number, but might have done better with a Mother’s Day weekend release to avoid the inevitable poor reviews from depressing attendance.”
Box Office Results: $32.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Garry Marshall’s final film ultimately failed to impress audiences.

Ratchet & Clank

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. While it may be submitted and sit on the shortlist for Best Animated Feature, a nomination seems improbable.”
Oscar Results: It will be forgotten by the animation department.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Focus Features has a terrible track record with animated features and unless you’re Blue Sky, Disney, Pixar or DreamWorks, your chances aren’t great.”
Box Office Results: $8.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Not all animated films are created equal and although video gamers who’ve played the game might have had an interest, the poor reviews didn’t help and the terrible advertising campaign failed.

Same Kind of Different As Me

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. No early advertising. No buzz. It just doesn’t seem like anyone’s interested in this.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Pulled from Release Schedule – rescheduled for Feb. 3, 2017

A Beautiful Planet (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $16 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Apart from the initial film in the DisneyNature series, Earth in 2009, and the blip of Chimpanzee in 2012, the series hasn’t done gangbusters at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $5.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] DisneyNature’s Earth Day documentaries don’t have the spark of life they once did.

Viva (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Done. With its Best Foreign Language Film Oscar nomination last year, it is removed from further eligibility at the Oscars. It lost to Son of Saul.”
Oscar Results: Already a Best Foreign Language Film nominee, so that’s all it’s getting.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Most Oscar nominees for Best Foreign Language Film don’t parlay that success into actual box office numbers. While this might pull in some LGBT folk, it still won’t likely do a lot of business.”
Box Office Results: $0.178 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The gay community didn’t want to turn out, and people who love foreign language films don’t seem to care when a movie is an Oscar nominee or not.