Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

January 8, 2016

The Forest

Premise: From IMDb: “An unexplained horror occurs in a Japanese forest..”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Weak. January isn’t a great time for horror films with few becoming outright successes.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Masked Saint

Premise: From IMDb: “”The Masked Saint” is based on a true story about one pastor’s mission to help his community by risking his identity and returns to his former life as a wrestler. The triumphant story follows one man’s journey and struggle between helping others and the consequences he faces doing this.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Without trailers or other previews, there’s not enough information to determine whether the film will be a huge success or an absolute mess.
Oscar Prospects: None.

January 15, 2016

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Premise: From IMDb: “An American Ambassador is killed during an attack at a U.S. compound in Libya as a security team struggles to make sense out of the chaos.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Uncertain. In the last decade, Michael Bay has made one non-Transformers film and it wasn’t terribly successful. Gone are the days when he could command massive returns for everything he touched. Of course, most of his films came out in Summer, so there’s no way of knowing how this one will perform. It’s entirely atypical for his career, so who knows for certain. I suspect the January release is an attempt to capitalize on the performances of American Sniper and Lone Survivor in this window. It might perform well, but considering both of those films were trying for Oscar glory (one succeeding, one failing) and both were decently well reviewed. That said, I don’t think this film will earn very good reviews and it’s not an Oscar contender, so other than building buzz from the political right, I doubt it can break out as a hit.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Michael Bay has done quite well with the tech categories at the Oscars. This film’s only real shots are in the sound categories.

The 5th Wave

Premise: From IMDb: “Four waves of increasingly deadly alien attacks have left most of Earth decimated. Cassie is on the run, desperately trying to save her younger brother.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Weak. The highest box office tally for an alien invasion film releasing in January is $6.3 million by Imposter 14 years ago. The problem is so few have opened in this region of the calendar, it’s impossible to know if the film will succeed or fail. Generally, alien invasion pics do well with audiences, so it’s possible it will do decently well. I’m suspecting, though, that it may be more similar to I Am Number Four in terms of performance than anything else.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. The film could make some inroads in the tech categories at the Oscars, but I sincerely doubt it.

Norm of the North

Premise: From IMDb: “Displaced from their Arctic home, a polar bear named Norm and his three lemming friends wind up in New York City, where Norm becomes the mascot of a corporation he soon learns is tied to the fate of his homeland.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There aren’t many animated films that have released in January. Two years ago, The Nut Job did surprisingly well in this same frame, which may explain the release strategy. It’s possible they perform similarly, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were a bomb either.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Ride Along 2

Premise: From IMDb: “As his wedding day approaches, Ben heads to Miami with his soon-to-be brother-in-law James to bring down a drug dealer who’s supplying the dealers of Atlanta with product.”
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Expectations: Good. The first film was a surprise hit in the same frame two years ago and lightning is likely to strike twice. The question is will it outperform its predecessor or underperform. I’m leaning towards underperforming.
Oscar Prospects: None.

January 22, 2016

The Boy

Premise: From IMDb: “An American nanny is shocked that her new English family’s boy is actually a life-sized doll. After violating a list of strict rules, disturbing events make her believe that the doll is really alive.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Apart from the curiosity factor, a horror film at this time of year isn’t the safest bet.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Dirty Grandpa

Premise: From IMDb: “Right before his wedding, an uptight guy is tricked into driving his grandfather, a perverted former Army general, to Florida for spring break.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. This genre has a solid track record, but never at this time of year. Why they chose to release this in January I don’t know; however, with the rest of the year jam-packed, the studio may be trying to open up earlier months for profit.
Oscar Prospects: None.

January 29, 2016

Fifty Shades of Black

Premise: From IMDb: “A parody of the popular film/novel 50 Shades of Gray.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Although the Wayans have had success in the past with their cinematic spoofs, the Haunted House films weren’t nearly as popular as they had hoped.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Finest Hours

Premise: From IMDb: “The Coast Guard makes a daring rescue attempt off the coast of Cape Cod after a pair of oil tankers are destroyed during a blizzard in 1952.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There is an attempt to spread the box office calendar out over the year instead of stuffing it into two logical brackets (Summer and Winter). This may be an example of one of those attempts. It doesn’t have a lot going for it, but action/disaster stories can and do succeed, so anything is possible.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The effects might be enough to get it some attention, but a January release won’t keep it in the memory long enough to do much good.

Kung Fu Panda 3

Premise: From IMDb: “Continuing his “legendary adventures of awesomeness”, Po must face two hugely epic, but different threats: one supernatural and the other a little closer to his home.”
Box Office Prospects: $160 M
Expectations: Good. The first film was a huge hit. The second slid a bit, but was still successful. This third film may stabilize the slide, but we won’t know for certain how far off it will be (above or below) until its release.
Oscar Prospects: Good. Both prior films in the series were Best Animated Feature Oscar nominees. I see no reason this one can’t be as well.

Jane Got a Gun

Premise: From IMDb: “A woman asks her ex-lover for help in order to save her outlaw husband from a gang out to kill him.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Weak. The film has been struggling to finish and find a release for way too long. Westerns aren’t that popular these days, so I wouldn’t expect much of a box office performance for this film.
Oscar Prospects: Unlikely. The film feels like an Oscar contender on paper, but its lengthy shoot and troubled history suggests otherwise.

Lights Out

Premise: From IMDb: “A woman is haunted by a creature that only appears when the lights go out. A feature adaptation of the 2013 short film, “Lights Out” by David Sandberg.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Of the three horror flicks releasing in January, this one has the best buzz surrounding it. The popular short film on which it was based has a creepy concept that could appeal to a finicky horror fanbase.
Oscar Prospects: None.