Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

February 5, 2016

The Choice

Premise: From IMDb: “Travis and Gabby first meet as neighbors in a small coastal town and wind up in a relationship that is tested by life’s most defining events.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Weak. Without a major name at the top of the bill, it’s hard to see this as performing better than modestly. In the Nicholas Spark arena, the films that have become hits starred relatively familiar faces. That’s not the case this time.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Hail, Caesar!

Premise: From IMDb: “A Hollywood fixer in the 1950s works to keep the studio’s stars in line.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Good. Joel and Ethan Coen have had both hits and misses, but significantly more misses. They direct outright comedies and outright dramas and things in between. As for their complete and zany comedy films, the two best box office performers starred major, familiar faces, most notably George Clooney. With that in mind, I think this would could be a great deal of fun with Clooney being joined by Channing Tatum, Scarlett Johnasson, Jonah Hill and a couple of other familiar, though not box office-familiar, names. It should be a hit.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Never count out the Brothers Coen, but their comedies don’t do well with the Academy, which is why this is releasing so early in the year. That said, with the period costuming and production design, this could break their comic curse.

Pride and Prejudice and Zombies

Premise: From IMDb: “Jane Austen’s classic tale of the tangled relationships between lovers from different social classes in 19th century England is faced with a new challenge — an army of undead zombie.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Good. Zombie comedies have performed well at the box office and, with a title like this, it could easily do better box office than normal period dramas.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Viva

Premise: From IMDb: “When everything is for sale, what’s the value of love? Jesus does make up for a troupe of drag performers in Havana, but dreams of being a performer. When he finally gets his chance to be on stage, a stranger emerges from the crowd and punches him in the face. The stranger is his father Angel, a former boxer, who has been absent from his life for 15 years. As father and son clash over their opposing expectations of each other, Viva becomes a love story as the men struggle to understand one another and become a family again.”
Box Office Prospects: $500 K
Expectations: Weak. Had the film earned a Best Foreign Language Film Oscar nomination, its chances would have been better; However, as it stands, it will have to rely solely on those who enjoy Queer Cinema, which isn’t a very bounteous group of cinemagoers.
Oscar Prospects: Failed. Film was on the Foreign Language Film shortlist, but failed to earn a nomination.

February 12, 2016

Deadpool

Premise: From IMDb: “A former Special Forces operative turned mercenary is subjected to a rogue experiment that leaves him with accelerated healing powers and adopts the alter ego Deadpool.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There have only been five Marvel comic book adaptations that have secured an R rating and, outside of the Blade trilogy, they weren’t a success. However, the marketing campaign for this film has been phenomenal and a new era may be about to be born for Marvel properties with R ratings.
Oscar Prospects: None.

How to Be Single

Premise: From IMDb: “New York City is full of lonely hearts seeking the right match, and what Alice, Robin, Lucy, Meg, Tom and David all have in common is the need to learn how to be single in a world filled with ever-evolving definitions of love.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There aren’t many examples of romantic comedies featuring all-female casts. That could mean we’re entering new territory and all estimates are hampered by that. I suspect it won’t be a major hit, because the stars just aren’t that stellar in terms of box office draws, but I suspect it will be popular enough to merit a solid return and possibly a sequel.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Zoolander 2

Premise: From IMDb: “Derek and Hansel are modelling again when an opposing company attempts to take them out from the business.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. A 9-year separation between original and sequel didn’t stop Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues from outpacing its predecessor. However, it’s been 15 years since the original Zoolander made $45 million and ultimately became a cult favorite. I think it will ultimately outperform its predecessor, but I don’t think it will be the sizable hit they are expecting.
Oscar Prospects: None.

A War

Premise: From IMDb: “Company commander Claus M. Pedersen (Pilou Asbæk) and his men are stationed in an Afghan province. Meanwhile back in Denmark Claus’ wife Maria (Tuva Novotny) is trying to hold everyday life together with a husband at war and three children missing their father. During a routine mission, the soldiers are caught in heavy crossfire and in order to save his men, Claus makes a decision that has grave consequences for him – and his family back home.”
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Expectations: Decent. With an Oscar nomination for Best Foreign Language Film under its belt, the film is poised to parlay that support into a healthy box office tally. Unfortunately, it still won’t be that huge.
Oscar Prospects: Secured. It received a nomination for Best Foreign Language Film. It is unlikely to win.

Where to Invade Next

Premise: From IMDb: “To learn what the USA can learn from other nations, Michael Moore playfully “invades” them to see what they have to offer.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Poor. While he currently has the most popular documentary of all time on his roster, the rest of his films have been box office weaklings. For documentaries, they still do quite well, but without any awards support, this one may struggle to live up to those others’ examples.
Oscar Prospects: Failed. It was on the Documentary Feature shortlist, but failed to earn a nomination.

February 19, 2016

Race

Premise: From IMDb: “Jesse Owens’ quest to become the greatest track and field athlete in history thrusts him onto the world stage of the 1936 Olympics, where he faces off against Adolf Hitler’s vision of Aryan supremacy.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. As the biopic on James Brown’s life, Get On Up could only pull in $30 million, what hope does this film have of triumphing at the box office? How about 42, the story of another major sports figure? It made $95 million. Then again, there’s Ali which only made $58 million. A lot depends on cultural zeitgeist, release windows, stars and production team. That makes it incredibly difficult to predict where this film goes. However, it’s seemingly limited advertising so far may presage a failure rather than a success.
Oscar Prospects: Doubtful. The film would have to be utterly phenomenal to play well with the Academy and a February release suggests that it isn’t.

Risen

Premise: From IMDb: “Follows the epic Biblical story of the Resurrection, as told through the eyes of a non-believer. Clavius, a powerful Roman Military Tribune, and his aide Lucius, are tasked with solving the mystery of what happened to Jesus in the weeks following the crucifixion, in order to disprove the rumors of a risen Messiah and prevent an uprising in Jerusalem.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Since the 1970s, Biblical epics haven’t done incredibly well at the box office, Passion of the Christ being the sole exception. The last such film to release to theaters, Son of God, did decently, but approximately $60 million isn’t an immense success. Of course, that film suffered from being cut together from a popular TV miniseries, which may have inhibited its chances.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Viral

Premise: From IMDb: “Following the outbreak of a virus that wipes out the majority of the human population, a young woman documents her family’s new life in quarantine and tries to protect her infected sister.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Decent. This is a film that may have two built-in audiences, those interested in the Pandemic subgenre and those interested in just horror thrillers. It’s possible that it disappoints either or both of these audiences and suffers for it.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Embrace of the Serpent (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “The story of the relationship between Karamakate, an Amazonian shaman and last survivor of his people, and two scientists who work together over the course of 40 years to search the Amazon for a sacred healing plant.”
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Expectations: Decent. Foreign language pics rarely do excellent box office business and since no one will be talking about this film becoming an Oscar winner, I doubt it does that well.
Oscar Prospects: Secured. It received a nomination for Best Foreign Language Film. It is unlikely to win.

February 26, 2016

Eddie the Eagle

Premise: From IMDb: “The hysterical true life story of Britain’s most famous ski jumper Eddie “The Eagle” Edwards and his journey to Olympic fame.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Good. There aren’t many examples of Olympics-oriented inspirational sports dramas at the box office, but the two most recent examples Cool Runnings (1993) and Miracle (2004) show there’s an audience for it. The difference here is that Disney put out those prior to efforts and Fox is releasing this one. Don’t expect it to live up to those decade- and two decade-old examples.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Gods of Egypt

Premise: From IMDb: “A common thief joins a mythical god on a quest through Egypt.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Good. Wrath of the Titans shows that there is support for mythology-based features at the box office, but with so much flak being levied at this film’s whitewashed depiction of Egyptian gods, don’t expect it to draw too many people to the theater.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Triple 9

Premise: From IMDb: “A gang of criminals and corrupt cops plan the murder of a police officer in order to pull off their biggest heist yet across town.”
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Expectations: Good. With a cast like this in an action thriller, you have to believe it’s going to be one of the more successful films released in the early months of the year.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Witch

Premise: From IMDb: “A family in 1630s New England is torn apart by the forces of witchcraft, black magic and possession.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There is a distinct possibility that its originality will lead to solid box office returns, but there’s equal potential for it to flop for being set too far in the past.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A story of lost love, young love, a legendary sword and one last opportunity at redemption.”
Box Office Prospects: $500 K
Expectations: Poor. Netflix’s prior theatrical day-and-date release ended up buried because distributors didn’t want to compete with streaming, an untenable business model for them. Netflix is doing the same thing with their release of the sequel to Oscar winner Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Don’t expect people to rush out to see it or theaters to rush and book it.
Oscar Prospects: None.