The final major precursor of 2017 will have zero impact on the Oscar winners as votes for the Oscars are already due. However, their selections have, in recent years, been far more in line with the Academy’s tastes than many other groups. They can be instructive at times, but also confusing. Here are our predictions for these awards. (EDIT: Somehow, I managed to miss the announcement of winners in three categories that we covered below. I have left the commentary and predictions, but noted who the winners were.)

SPIRIT AWARDS

Best Feature

American Honey
Chronic
Jackie
Manchester by the Sea (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Moonlight (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The theme of my predictions with the Spirit Awards is: Oscar nominees become winners. While that can help in some categories, there are a few where two or more Oscar nominees appear. Those are the ones that require a bit of thought. That is with the exception of Best Picture. Moonlight is the most acclaimed film of the year in terms of critical consensus and when you have a film this independent and this well received, it’s an easy choice for the winner. Manchester by the Sea is also Oscar-nominated and is more traditional in terms of its indie cred, but it would be a shock if it won.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s a toss-up between Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea. It’s a coin toss as to which one will prevail.
Tripp Burton: Only once in the past decade, and never since the expansion of Best Picture, has this award not gone to an Oscar Best Picture nominee. That leaves us with Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea, and my guess is Moonlight does very well here, partially in consolation for the Oscars the next night.
Thomas LaTourette: Without a corresponding nomination for best director, Manchester does not seem as likely to win here. I will predict Moonlight to win.

Best First Feature

The Childhood of a Leader
The Fits (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Other People (Thomas)
Swiss Army Man (Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Witch (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: None of these films is Oscar-nominated, so the question is which of them will win. I give my vote to the stylized and bizarre Swiss Army Man, but I recognize that almost any of the others could also win, including critics’ darling The Witch.
Peter J. Patrick: I really have no idea on this one, just taking a wild guess
Tripp Burton: A strong category, with a lot of interesting visions, but The Witch is the highest profile of these nominees and an impressively controlled first feature. It should win handily here.
Thomas LaTourette: Other People and Swiss Army Man had wider releases than the rest, so one of them seems likely to win.

John Cassavetes Award

Free In Deed (RU:Thomas)
Hunter Gatherer (Thomas)
Lovesong (Wesley, Peter)
Nakom
Spa Night (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: This is like independent cinema on the absolute smallest scale. Most of these films haven’t had much press surrounding them, so my predictions here are 100% guesswork.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m guessing on this one.
Tripp Burton: Free in Deed picked up the most nominations of the night, but this award is anyone’s guess.
Thomas LaTourette: I have seen previews for Hunter Gatherer and Free In Deed has other nominations, so one of them seems likeliest to win.

Best Director

Andrea Arnold – American Honey (RU:Tripp)
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Pablo Larrain – Jackie (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Jeff Nichols – Loving (RU:Wesley)
Kelly Reichardt – Certain Women

Wesley Lovell: Only one of these four is an Oscar nominee and he’s the man behind the likely Best Picture winner from this group. As such, choosing him as the predicted winner is an easy one. Jeff Nichols is probably his biggest competitor as he’s been a part of the indie cinema game for some time and has built up plenty of cred with this voting body.
Peter J. Patrick: Moonlight‘s Barry Jenkins should take this one easily, with Jackie‘s Pablo Larrain a long shot upset winner.
Tripp Burton: Barry Jenkins is the only Oscar nominee here, and you imagine he has been an also ran in a lot of Best Director races this year. His vision should land him an award here easily.
Thomas LaTourette: Barry Jenkins seems the likely choice as Kenneth Lonergan is not nominated. Pablo Larrain could win, but this should go to Moonlight.

Best Female Lead

Annette Bening – 20th Century Women (Thomas)
Isabelle Huppert – Elle (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley)
Sasha Lane – American Honey
Ruth Negga – Loving (RU:Thomas)
Natalie Portman – Jackie (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Three Oscar nominees make an appearance here and none of them are poised for an Oscar win. Isabelle Huppert is closest to Emma Stone, but Natalie Portman’s performance is sublime and this is the one group that I think would most appreciate the intimacy of it. Of course, Huppert is a legend and a win for her wouldn’t be unexpected.
Peter J. Patrick: This one will likely go to Huppert, but Portman could surprise.
Tripp Burton: This is a loaded category, with three Oscar nominations and one Oscar also-ran, and in truth, I could make a case for any of the nominees here winning. I’m going with Huppert, who has the most heat behind her right now, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Portman or Bening on the stage either.
Thomas LaTourette: I could see this going to non-Oscar nominee Bening, though Negga, Portman, and Huppert will definitely be vying for it.

Best Male Lead

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
David Harewood – Free In Deed
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Jesse Plemons – Other People
Tim Roth – Chronic

Wesley Lovell: Casey Affleck and Viggo Mortensen are both nominees at the Oscars, but Affleck has won almost every award that hasn’t been nailed down, an unprecedented 34 wins to date. 35 is a distinct possibility from this group, though Mortensen has built up plenty of respect among cineastes, which could benefit him greatly.
Peter J. Patrick: Oscar frontrunner Affleck should win this handily, with fellow Oscar nominee Mortensen well behind.
Tripp Burton: I don’t see how Casey Affleck, giving the year’s most acclaimed performance, loses this award.
Thomas LaTourette: The two Oscar nominees seem the strongest choices here. Affleck had the best role of his career and I could see him winning.

Best Supporting Female

Edwin Findley – Free In Deed
Paulina Garcia – Little Men
Lily Gladstone – Certain Women (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Riley Keough – American Honey
Molly Shannon – Other People (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Not a single Oscar nominee made the cut, which leaves this race complete wide open and any contender is possible to win, but two names have consistently crept into Oscar conversations and one of them even has a few precursors under her belt. That’s why I give the edge to Lily Gladston, though the tragicomic Other People could pull Molly Shannon in for a win as well.
Peter J. Patrick: Gladstone has already won a number of critics’ awards, but comedienne Shannon in a devastating dramatic role could prevail.
Tripp Burton: Sometimes the Spirit Awards give us fun categories like this, with five nominees completely out of the awards conversation anywhere else, and it becomes a crap shoot to decide who will win. I’m going with Molly Shannon, not only out of wishful thinking, but also for being the biggest name here, but Lily Gladstone has a lot of support and could sneak out a win here.
Thomas LaTourette: Molly Shannon had Oscar talk about her performance, so she seems the likeliest to win.

Best Supporting Male

Ralph Fiennes – A Bigger Splash (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Ben Foster – Hell or High Water (Thomas)
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Shia LaBeouf – American Honey (RU:Tripp)
Craig Robinson – Morris from America

Wesley Lovell: With only one Oscar nominee in the bunch, I have made that my selection. However, I’m not the least bit confident in it. The reason for that is Ralph Fiennes is a huge name and his performance was cited frequently. The same is true of Ben Foster and, to a lesser extent, Shia LaBeouf. While I’m leaning towards Hedges, I wouldn’t be shocked for another outcome. Yes, sometimes the Spirit Awards don’t select the Oscar nominee in the bunch.
Peter J. Patrick: Hedges is the only Oscar nominee here and he should win, but the popular Fiennes could overtake him.
Tripp Burton: Usually, you want to predict the Oscar nominee in the bunch for the Spirit Awards, and that should benefit Lucas Hedges very well. He has a lot of showier competition, though, and either LaBeouf or Fiennes could overpower Hedge’s subtle performance in voters minds.
Thomas LaTourette: Ralph Fiennes was supposed to be a riot in A Bigger Splash, but they may give it to a more grounded performance. The younger actors Lucas Hedges and Shia LeBeouf would likely be beat by Ben Foster.

Best Screenplay

20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
Little Men
Manchester by the Sea (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Moonlight (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Four of Oscar’s nominees are here, but only two have any real shot at winning. Best Picture frontrunner Moonlight is the most likely recipient. That it beat out Manchester at the WGA suggests it has plenty of strength, but don’t count out Kenneth Lonergan who is probably the best known screenwriter out of this bunch.
Peter J. Patrick: This should go to Manchester by the Sea with Moonlight right behind.
Tripp Burton: This could be one of the tightest races of the night, with four Oscar nominees all laying claim to original stories told in original ways. I think Barry Jenkins is going to spend a lot of time on stage Saturday night, so I’ll predict him here, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Kenneth Lonergan or even Mike Mills taking this award as a consolation prize.
Thomas LaTourette: This could go to either Moonlight or Manchester. Both have a number of precursor awards, but since Manchester has more, I will lean that way.

Best First Screenplay

Barry
Christine (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Jean of the Joneses
Other People (Thomas, RU:Peter)
The Witch (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: There are no Oscar nominees in this bunch, but three films seem to have gotten the lion’s share of attention this season: Christine, Other People, and The Witch. Since The Witch has been the most consistently cited film among critics, that’s where my prediction lands.
Peter J. Patrick: The Witch will probably win this easily.
Tripp Burton: The Witch was the most praised debut of the year, and like First Feature should ride its high profile to a win here.
Thomas LaTourette: Other People had the wider release so it may win because of that.

Best Editing

Hell or High Water (Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Jackie
Manchester by the Sea (Thomas, RU:Peter)
Moonlight (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Swiss Army Man

Wesley Lovell: There are two Oscar nominees on this list and Manchester by the Sea isn’t one of them. Between Moonlight and Hell or High Water, critics have consistently sided with Moonlight, but the film isn’t that obviously edited, which gives Hell or High Water a solid chance to win.
Peter J. Patrick: I think this will go hand in hand with the Best Picture winner.
Tripp Burton: I’m going to keep predicting a Moonlight sweep, but Hell or High Water has some flashier sequences that could get it a consolation prize here.
Thomas LaTourette: I would think that Manchester might just trump Moonlight again here, but this might go the other way.

Best Cinematography

American Honey (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Childhood of a Leader (RU:Tripp)
The Eyes of My Mother
Free In Deed
Moonlight (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: There’s one Oscar nominee in the bunch and there is zero reason not to expect it to win.
Peter J. Patrick: Moonlight should win this one easily. If there is an upset, it will probably be American Honey.
Tripp Burton: Moonlight is an Oscar nominee, and the most seen nominee in the category, but don’t count out The Childhood of a Leader, a gorgeously shot film that could surprise here.
Thomas LaTourette: Moonlight is the best known of these and the only Oscar nominee, so it may well win.

Best International Film

Aquarius – Brazil (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Chevalier – Greece
My Golden Days – France
Toni Erdmann – Germany/Romania (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Under the Shadow – Iran/United Kingdom (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: The lone Oscar nominee of the bunch gets my prediction, but watch out for Under the Shadow and Aquarius, films with decent buzz on their own.
Peter J. Patrick: Multi-award-winner Toni Erdmann should take this easily. If not, it’s anyone’s guess.
Tripp Burton: The bizarre Toni Erdmann seems a perfect fit for this voting body.
Thomas LaTourette: Toni Erdmann has been talked about most, though Aquarius could sneak in for a win.

Best Documentary

13th (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro (RU:Wesley)
O.J.: Made in America (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Sonita
Under the Sun

Wesley Lovell: In a rare move, three Oscar nominees are on the list and while I put my vote behind the film most likely to win the Oscar, O.J.: Made in America, I’m not at all confident in that as both of the other Oscar nominees, 13th and I Am Not Your Negro are well respected. If you consider the current American political climate, both would make some logical sense. I give my runner-up to I Am Not Your Negro as it’s earned a lot of late-breaking praise.
Peter J. Patrick: O.J.: Made in America has won just about everything it’s been nominated for. It should repeat here as well. 13th is the next likely winner.
Tripp Burton: I’m not predicting against O.J. at all at this point, but 13th could pick up some speed from the more independent minded voting body.
Thomas LaTourette: Once again I will list O.J. as the winner over 13th and I Am Not Your Negro, even though I have heard good things about those too.

Robert Altman Award

Moonlight

Piaget Producers Award

Lisa Kjerulff (RU:Thomas)
**WINNER** Jordana Mollick
Melody C. Roscher & Craig Shilowich (Thomas)

Thomas LaTourette: I am only guessing here.

Kiehl’s Someone to Watch Award

Andrew Ahn – Spa Night (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Claire Carré – Embers (Thomas)
**WINNER** Anna Rose Holmer – The Fits (Wesley, Peter)
Ingrid Jungermann – Women Who Kill (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Two of these films were nominated other major categories here. The Fits for Best First Feature and Spa Night in the John Cassavetes Award. Considering the support the films have received, I lean towards The Fits, but I have no doubt it could be any of them.
Peter J. Patrick: I expect The Fits to win, with Spa Night a long shot.
Thomas LaTourette: I know nothing about these, so chose by titles.

Truer Than Fiction Award

Kristi Jacobson – Solitary (Peter)
Sara Jordeno – Kiki (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
**WINNER** Nanfu Wang – Hooligan Sparrow (Wesley, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: None of these films are nominated elsewhere. As such, I give my prediction to the film that made the Academy’s documentary shortlist and, by premise alone, sounds like something that would earn considerable recognition: Hooligan Sparrow.
Peter J. Patrick: I really have no idea about this one.
Thomas LaTourette: I like the title of Hooligan Sparrow, so I hope it wins.