Two of the biggest guild precursors announce this weekend. One will be at a private dinner on Saturday night and the other will be a glitzy telecast on Sunday evening. The Screen Actors Guild is voted on by members of the acting community, both those working in television and in film. The Producers Guild of America is of the same design, but producers.

The SAG awards are looked to for their prognosticative capability. It isn’t a perfect group and sometimes it just confirms what has already been the running narrative for a couple of months. However, they have made some selections that have upended the Oscar race and so we watch for them to either rubber stamp a choice (such as Casey Affleck or Viola Davis) or to perhaps shift our focus to someone unexpected.

The PGA may nominate based on two factors: Oscar potential and box office dominance, but when they vote, they have taken to trying to forecast or influence the Oscars. They award in thee categories that match the Oscars: Picture, Animated Feature, and Documentary Feature. That last category is a challenge as they hardly ever nominate the final five from the Academy. The other two categories are much more instructive.

Now, let’s take a look at what our members think will be the night’s big winners.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

Best Cast

Captain Fantastic
Fences (Thomas)
Hidden Figures (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp)
Manchester by the Sea (RU:Thomas)
Moonlight (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The first thing I do when sitting down to predict this award is compare cast sizes and prominence of the members of the ensemble. From there, it gets a bit cumbersome as SAG often goes for the largest ensemble, but they just as often go for whatever film is dominating the competition for Best Picture at the Oscars. Since La La Land‘s two-person ensemble wasn’t nominated, that latter tendency isn’t so keen this year. So, let’s look at what we have. Captain Fantastic has 12 members in its ensemble, featuring Viggo Mortensen nominated individually, Ann Dowd, Frank Langella, Missi Pyle, and Kathryn Hahn as the most notable names. Fences has a seven-person ensemble with Denzel Washington and Viola Davis both nominated individually and Mykelti Williamson as the most notable. Hidden Figures has nine people listed, including individual nominee Octavia Spencer, as well as Mahershala Ali (nominated for a different film), Kirsten Dunst, Jim Parsons, Kevin Costner, Taraji P. Henson, and Janelle Monae as the most familiar names. Manchester by the Sea is six people, Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams, and Lucas Hedges nominated individually, along with Kyle Chandler, Gretchen Mol, and Matthew Broderick. And finally, you have Moonlight with seven members, including individual nominees Mahershala Ali and Naomie Harris, plus Janelle Monae as the recognizable talent. Captain Fantastic is the largest ensemble, but is the only one on the list that isn’t a Best Picture nominee. Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea are credible Best Picture contenders (if La La Land weren’t in the race). Manchester by the Sea has the most individual nominees, but it also has the smallest nominated cast. Ultimately, I’m going to go with Hidden Figures as the primary contender here. With a trove of recognizable names, a second-largest nominated cast, and success at the box office that none of the others have, it has just enough to be a credible threat. Ultimately, I think it will win, but either Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea are also possible.
Peter J. Patrick: Moonlight is the obvious choice, but Hidden Figures has been gaining momentum. I’m posied for an upset.
Tripp Burton: With no La La Land, this is the rare chance for another film to gain some ground. Moonlight seems like the most obvious victor, but don’t discard the box office hit Hidden Figures as a surprise victor.
Thomas LaTourette: My personal favorite would be Fences which will be a major contender here and might even win. It really did have a strong ensemble cast and a fairly large one, and that could carry it to a win, though it faces stiff competition. With the most individual acting nominations this year, Manchester by the Sea could also win the Best Cast award. People talk about that cast after seeing the film. The currently popular Hidden Figures probably is peaking a little too late to benefit here, though Moonlight is also a strong contender.

Best Actor

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge (RU:Peter)
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Casey Affleck has been dominating precursor season. The only things standing in his way are a relatively quiet sex scandal and an incredibly well known, capital-A actor as competition.
Peter J. Patrick: Affleck has won just about everything else – this is no contest.
Tripp Burton: Casey Affleck should continue his victory parade through awards season here, unless SAG goes for a more mainstream choice (which is always possible) like Denzel Washington.
Thomas LaTourette: I think the two serious powerhouse performances from Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington will be battling it out for this award. My personal favorite would be Washington, but I think that this will be Affleck’s moment to shine in the sun. Ryan Gosling could sneak in, but I think it will go to a more serious film.

Best Actress

Amy Adams – Arrival
Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train
Natalie Portman – Jackie (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Emma Stone – La La Land (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Without Isabelle Huppert in the mix, the battle comes down to Emma Stone and Natalie Portman. While I was initially leaning towards Portman, voters have nowhere else to recognize La La Land (except in Best Actor and that’s not likely to happen). It also helps that Stone’s character, a struggling actress who finally makes it big, will be very easily identified with by SAG voters.
Peter J. Patrick: Portman hasn’t won any major award yet, but with Huppert out of the picture this might be hers, with Stone nipping at her heels.
Tripp Burton: Emma Stone needs this win to prove that she is really the frontrunner that some of us believe she is. Meryl Streep is a SAG favorite, though, and could stand in her way, especially if actors really loved that Golden Globes speech.
Thomas LaTourette: The only competition here is between Portman and Stone as none of the others stand a chance. Although Jackie gave Portman her best role yet, I think that the SAG will go to Stone for her heartfelt performance as the wannabe actress from La La Land.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water (Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins (RU:Tripp)
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: I can’t help but think Jeff Bridges has a shot at this one. He’s incredibly well known and well liked. However, Mahershala Ali, while not exactly a household name, is a very familiar actor to many and his performance in Moonlight has been dominant this awards season. I give Bridges the soft lead, but expect Ali will probably take it in a squeaker.
Peter J. Patrick: Ali should continue the sweep he had going before being interrupted at the Globes, with Patel or Hedges poised to upset.
Tripp Burton: If any of the four front-runners are vulnerable here, it is Mahershala Ali. I just don’t know who would end up there instead of him.
Thomas LaTourette: This feels like it should be Ali’s to lose, but he did lose the Golden Globe, so maybe his dominance in this category is not as strong as predicted. However, I feel that his performance should easily win and should send him towards an eventual Oscar as well. If anyone could beat him, I would think it would be longtime star Jeff Bridges.

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis – Fences (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Naomie Harris – Moonlight (RU:Peter)
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures (RU:Tripp)
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Everyone will be quite shocked if Viola Davis loses, as will I.
Peter J. Patrick: Davis should continue her winning streak here, with Harris having an outside chance.
Tripp Burton: I can’t see anyone getting in the way of Viola Davis picking up another award, unless Hidden Figures has picked up more heat the last few weeks than the Oscar nominations showed.
Thomas LaTourette: Viola Davis should continue her winning ways with another award for Fences. Her closest competition is Michelle Williams, though her part is small enough that I could imagine her not being able to get enough votes to pass Davis, who arguably could have been nominated for Best Actress.

Best Stunt Ensemble

Captain America: Civil War (RU: Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Jason Bourne (RU:Wesley)
Nocturnal Animals (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: This is a tough category because stunt performers vote and you have to know something about how the stunts are used to make an informed opinion. While I’ve seen four of the five nominees, I couldn’t tell you which one for certain they are likely to go for. However, if I have to make a guess, I’d say the battle sequences of Hacksaw Ridge have a much better shot at winning than any of the others. That it’s the only Best Picture Oscar nominee on the list might help with other members of SAG, but not necessarily this group. I think Jason Bourne and Captain America: Civil War could also easily win.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m expecting the more serious Hacksaw Ridge to take this, with the surprising popular Nocturnal Animals a possible upset winner.
Tripp Burton: Only one Best Picture nominee has ever lost this category – Les Miserables – and that was not exactly an obvious winner for this category. That should bode well for Hacksaw Ridge, although if anything can upset it, the huge fight scenes of Captain America: Civil War will possibly do it.
Thomas LaTourette: This often goes to the most serious of the nominees, so I would think that the WWII set Hacksaw Ridge stands the best chance to win. If it does not, then I would expect one of the films from Marvel to win, with Captain America standing a slightly better chance than Doctor Strange.

PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Picture

Arrival (RU:Thomas)
Deadpool
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Lion
Manchester by the Sea (RU:Peter)
Moonlight (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: La La Land is the most confident Best Pictue prediction any of us have had in years. Its loss would be utterly shocking. If it has to lose, though, it’s the critical acclaim for Moonlight that I see sneaking in.
Peter J. Patrick: If La La Land doesn’t win this one, it will be the biggest upset in the history of these awards
Tripp Burton: La La Land should win easily here: from the Hollywood love letter to the tough-to-produce musical numbers, it has a lot the producers should gravitate towards.
Thomas LaTourette: This should be a lock for La La Land to win. It is a valentine to Hollywood musicals and has also been very popular. I would be shocked if the PGA went elsewhere with this award. Cases could be made for the independent Moonlight, somber Manchester or the rare science fiction film to get a nomination, Arrival. However, if anything were to upset the huge frontrunner, I think it would be the hilarious, profane, and box office giant Deadpool. But that won’t happen and La La Land will easily claim the win.

Best Animated Feature

Finding Dory (RU:Thomas)
Kubo and the Two Strings (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Moana (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Secret Life of Pets
Zootopia (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: While my personal opinion will likely differ, I expect the box office sensation of Zootopia to speak more to the producers than Kubo and the Two Strings. Any other victor would be a bit surprising.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m going with my favorite on this one.
Tripp Burton: One of the Disney films should do well here, where the producers tend to gravitate towards big, mainstream hits.
Thomas LaTourette: I would imagine that Zootopia should win here. It has been immensely popular and raked in a lot of money, which the PGA does like. If it doesn’t win, than the Pixar blockbuster Finding Dory might make it in. That would be a surprise.

Best Documentary

Dancer
The Eagle Huntress (RU:Thomas)
Life, Animated (RU:Wesley)
O.J.: Made in America (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Tower (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: There are two Oscar nominees on this list. Of the two, O.J.: Made in America has the most going for it and will likely triumph over the smaller production of Life, Animated.
Peter J. Patrick: The bigger the better, O.J. wins this easily.
Tripp Burton: The size and complexity of O.J. should make it an easy winner here.
Thomas LaTourette: Once again the most talked about documentary will probably win, and that is O.J.: Made in America. However, since it was done for television, it might not fare as well in this category. In that case, the award might go to one of the feel good docs, The Eagle Huntress or Life, Animated. Since The Eagle Huntress is currently in cinemas, that might help it win over the older film.