And here we are at the end of the road. Oscar Season 2016 ends this weekend and we have our final predictions to present to you. Before we get into the meat of the predictions, here are some introductions written by our contributors. Tripp felt he had said everything he needed to during the Rundown series, so he chose not to provide additional commentary. After you finish reading our introductions, head into the predictions and see where we stand and how you compare.

Wesley Lovell: In what has to be one of the least suspenseful Oscar seasons in recent memory, the frontrunner has remained the frontrunner the entire season and few distractions or alterations have made it into the mix. There is still the potential for surprises as BAFTA proved, but how things play out depends on just how potent La La Land truly is. As I referenced in my article Can “La La Land” Tie or Break a Record?, I discussed at length how the Oscar season may play out for the year’s most nominated film. Take a look there to see my thoughts on its chances of tying or breaking a record. I’ve also spent a lot of time writing about these categories, so I’ll be brief in the comments below. If you want to read my thoughts in more deatil, take a look at my article Oscar Guy’s Final Thoughts to know more about what I see as this year’s best bets and runners-up.
Peter J. Patrick: Down to the wire, the big question seems to be how many Oscars La La Land will win. My guess is between 7 and 10, but not the 13 it could win.
Although any of the acting wins could conceivably be a surprise, the one that is generating the most talk is whether or not Denzel Washington can repeat his Screen Actors Guild win. I say “not.” Washington, one of the most awarded actors of our time, had never won a SAG award and was overdue. That’s not the case with Oscar, of which he already has two.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: At this point I have seen all but one animated film, two foreign language films, two documentaries, and one film with a song nominee. I hope to see one of the foreign language films and one if not two documentaries before the awards, though the O.J. documentary is almost eight hours long, so that might not happen. This will definitely be the most movies I have seen before the Oscars. It has been a fun and time-consuming task preparing for this. I do not know how many I will get right, but it is a passion of mine to work on. I hope you enjoy reading it. This definitely will be the year of La La Land. It is a fun movie, if a bit of fluff. But I did enjoy the fact that the director was willing to do a lush, romantic, and original musical, something that rarely happens. The last original musical nominated for best picture was 1979’s All That Jazz. It definitely will be winning a number of awards, probably between 8 and 11. There will be lots of debate as to whether it deserves that many, but it will be fun to see how the awards fall. Some are set, as always, but some are definitely in flux. It definitely makes for a more interesting Oscars when we do not know who they will all go to. So mark your ballots and be prepared.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists Appears on Three Lists Appears on Two Lists Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

[New] = New Prediction [Return] = Prior Prediction Returning (O) = Original Prediction (R) = Rundown Series (F) = Final Nomination Predictions

Best Picture

• Fences
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Hell or High Water
• Hidden Figures
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Lion
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

Runners Up

• Moonlight (WL O) (PP R) (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: If La La Land were to lose, it would be the biggest upset since Crash in 2005.
Peter J. Patrick: If it were up to me, Manchester by the Sea would be the winner, but the momentum is with La La Land, with Moonlight the most talked about other nominee.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: This one feels like a slam dunk. I find it hard to picture anything but La La Land winning the big prize. It has the most precursors and has won many of the major ones, Golden Globes, Producers Guild, and the British Academy. The one major award it did not win was the Best Cast from the Screen Actors Guild, but it was not nominated there. It may have been viewed as so much a two-person movie that they did not feel it deserved a cast nomination. It is rare for a film to win Best Picture without that precursor, but that will happen this year. It was a strong year for films and a case could be made for almost any of the other nominees to win, but they just will not be able to beat the juggernaut that La La Land has become. The film that likely has the second most votes will be Moonlight, the personal coming-of-age drama. It has the second most wins, but it is probably too edgy and too different to win. It will most likely take the awards for Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor, but I just do not see any scenario where it wins here. Hidden Figures won the SAG cast award, but this well liked film will not succeed without the director being nominated so it will probably end up going home without any awards. The other six nominees have even less chance of winning. La La Land easily wins. The main question remaining will be whether it can tie or best the films with the most wins. It was my favorite movie of the year, but I do not think it was that good, but it stands a definite chance to tie Ben-Hur Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the Kings with 11 wins each. It may also fall short of that goal, but the Oscar for best film is one that it will take home.

Best Animated Feature

• Kubo and the Two Strings (PP O)
• Moana
• My Life as a Zucchini
• The Red Turtle
• Zootopia (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

• Kubo and the Two Strings (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Red Turtle (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: While I wish this race were too close to call, Zootopia has it, but I’ll be rooting for Kubo and the Two Strings personally.
Peter J. Patrick: Kubo and the Two Strings is so far above the usual Disney product, I don’t see how it can lose unless it’s to something equally terrific which may be The Red Turtle, which I havden’t seen but have heard good things about.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: With its domination at the Annie Awards, Disney’s Zootopia, long the frontrunner, has become the prohibitive favorite to win. Along with its win at the Golden Globes, it appears to be headed for the gold. It opened to strong notices and good box office, but I did not think it would be so dominant. I would have expected Kubo and the Two Strings to be stiffer competition, but it never got the traction to do that, even with a surprise win at the BAFTA. Zootopia was fun, but I think that Kubo was the more inventive movie. Kubo was never the box office sensation that Zootopia was, which may be a factor in this race. The late release of Moana, another well liked Disney film would have seemed likely to hurt Zootopia’s chances to win as it could have resulted in a split vote, but that does not seem to have been a factor after all. I do not see The Red Turtle nor My Life as a Zucchini having much impact in this race. Zootopia coasts to an easy win.

Best Director

• Damien Chazelle – La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
• Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
• Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
• Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

Runners Up

• Barry Jenkins – Moonlight (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: Damien Chazelle is a lock and there’s little likelihood of that changing.
Peter J. Patrick: Chazelle is pretty much a foregone conclusion, with Jenkins the only one likely to pull off a surprise.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: Damien Chazelle and Barry Jenkins have split the Lion’s share of the precursor awards so far. Chazelle has the edge with wins from the Directors Guild, Golden Globes, and BAFTA for his work on La La Land. He should easily win here. The more personal story of Moonlight will connect with some, but Barry Jenkins is more likely to win the Oscar for his screenplay of Moonlight than he is for directing it. None of the others will be in the mix to win. Chazelle will be honored for his delightful homage to the movie musicals, as well as his daring to put on a full blown romantic film. He will become the youngest director ever to win, and he deserves it with this charmer of a film.

Best Actor

• Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
• Ryan Gosling – La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
• Denzel Washington – Fences (TL R)

Runners Up

• Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (TL R)
• Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge (PP F) [New]
• Denzel Washington – Fences (WL R) (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: Casey Affleck was a lock, but Denzel Washington is giving him a run for his money. Affleck, though, is the likely winner.
Peter J. Patrick: If not Affleck, then anyone of whom my pick would be Garfield.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: The SAG award certainly changed the course of this category. It had looked like Casey Affleck had an easy job going on to win Best Actor for Manchester by the Sea. He had won almost every award given and was starting to seem like a shoo-in for the Oscar. Then the SAG went to Denzel Washington for Fences, and all that we thought was up in the air. Both actors turned in, in my opinion, career-best performances and would easily be the frontrunner in the category if it were not for the other one. Denzel Washington already has two Oscars, which might have precluded him from winning a third. However, the Academy lately has been willing to bestow a third acting Oscar, see both Meryl Streep and Daniel Day-Lewis, so it would not be unprecedented. Had Denzel been anything less than brilliant, I do not think he would have stood a chance. But he was, and he could win for a far more deserving role than Training Day was. Casey Affleck is young and probably has several more possibilities to win, which probably is not in his favor now. Some sexual assault allegations from 2010 resurfaced and are probably doing some harm to his chances as well, just like they knocked Nate Parker and his film The Birth of a Nation out of consideration. Casey still might win, but I think that the momentum is moving towards Denzel. The other three nominees do not stand much of a chance, unless a huge sweep for La La Land propels Ryan Gosling onto the podium, but that is not likely to happen. I think that Denzel might just win in a squeaker of a race.

Best Actress

• Isabelle Huppert – Elle (PP O)
• Ruth Negga – Loving
• Natalie Portman – Jackie
• Emma Stone – La La Land (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Runners Up

• Isabelle Huppert – Elle (WL F) [New](TL R)
• Emma Stone – La La Land (PP F) [New]
• Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: This is a very close race and while Emma Stone leads, she could be easily eclipsed by legend Isabelle Huppert, prior winner Natalie Portman, or a shock win by Ruth Negga.
Peter J. Patrick: It should be either Huppert or Portman on basis of performance, but Stone seems to be the girl of the moment. I still say Huppert, but would not be surprised to see Stone at the podium.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: Emma Stone had long been the frontrunner in this category, but a somewhat weak one. With time, however, she has cemented her position and looks likely to win on her second nomination. Her portrayal of the hopeful actress was charming and she would be a worthy winner. After the SAG win cemented her position, the hardest prediction to make is who stands the best chance of upsetting her. For a long time that seemed to be Natalie Portman for Jackie. If she had not won a few years earlier for Black Swan, I think she would be not only Emma’s main competition but actually the person to beat. I am just not certain that the Academy is ready to make her a two-time winner, which helped keep Emma in the lead position. Now I wonder if the runner-up position belongs to Isabelle Huppert for her tough portrayal of a rape victim in Elle. She was really good in the role, but I had such hard problems with the believability of the film and the characters’ motivations, that I could see some Academy voters having some problems voting for her. However, I think she stands a better chance of an upset than another ingénue would, so I am moving her into the spoiler spot, even though I expect Emma to win. I was very pleased to see Ruth Negga get a nomination for her incandescent performance in Loving. I was afraid she would get left out of the final five, but am glad she made it. Sadly Amy Adams did get left out, even with two strong performances in Arrival and Nocturnal Animals. I did not think she would win, but thought she should have been in the race. Meryl Streep took the final spot for Florence Foster Jenkins. She was good as a tone deaf opera singer, but has been better in other films over the years. Her fiery speech at the Golden Globes may garner her a number of votes, but probably not enough to become only the second four-time acting winner. Emma Stone wins fairly handily, but probably not by the margins that were expected.

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
• Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
• Dev Patel – Lion (PP F) [New]
• Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

Runners Up

• Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (PP F) [New]
• Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water (TB O) (TL O)
• Dev Patel – Lion (WL F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: Mahershala Ali dominated the precursors and although he missed BAFTA and the Golden Globe, the Oscar is probably his.
Peter J. Patrick: The makeup of the BAFTA membership has more in common with the Academy’s than SAG-AFTRA, so I put more stock in BAFTA surprises. Ali is still the presumed winner, but I’m anticipating a BAFTA-style upset.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: Mahershala Ali has won the most precursor awards for his role as the drug dealer who helps raise a young boy in Moonlight. The one major upset was the Golden Globe that went to someone who ended up not nominated for an Oscar, so he should have no problems winning here. His nomination was probably helped some by the #OscarsSoWhite campaign, but he also created a strong character out of what could have been a stock figure. His absence after the first third of the movie is felt as he created such a rich character. His strongest competition comes from old pro Jeff Bridges playing a lawman nearing retirement in Hell or High Water. However with one Oscar win already, I do not think the Academy is ready to give him another award. Dev Patel is also an underdog and will get a fair number of votes for his work in Lion, but I do not see him overtaking Ali. He did have a surprise win at the BAFTAs, but being British probably helped him win there. And I just do not see the last two nominees making that much of a play for the Oscar. Ali should win easily, though I also said that of the Golden Globes, so one can never know for sure.

Best Supporting Actress

• Viola Davis – Fences (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Naomie Harris – Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman – Lion
• Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
• Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Runners Up

• Naomie Harris – Moonlight (PP O)
• Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: Viola Davis is a slam-dunk winner, probably the surest thing of the night.
Peter J. Patrick: Davis is the only one of the expected winners no one is betting against. If there is an upset, it should be Harris over the remainder of the pack.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: I am writing this before the SAG awards are handed out, but I imagine that Viola Davis will have won that award too. I do not see anything stopping her from winning here as she has the most precursor awards and her Rose was the emotional heart of Fences. She won a Tony as lead actress playing the part, also opposite Denzel Washington. She probably could have been nominated as lead for the movie as well, but she felt on seeing the film that she played a supporting role. That will probably be debated as the last third of the movie belongs squarely to her, but she is nominated for Supporting Actress. She is ferocious and fragile and absolutely deserves every accolade she has gotten for this part. Her main competition comes from Michelle Williams who makes the most of her 11-minute part in Manchester by the Sea. Through most of that film I kept wondering why she was going to be nominated, and then she absolutely killed in an emotional scene with Casey Affleck, and I could totally see why she is in consideration. Unfortunately for her, she will be going home winless on her fourth nomination. Naomie Harris who plays a drug-addicted mother in Moonlight had some early traction, and she created a vividly alive character who also was not a stock character. I do not see her, Nicole Kidman or Octavia Spencer standing a chance of winning this year, though all were very good. Davis will deservedly take home her first Oscar.

Best Original Screenplay

• 20th Century Women
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land (TL O)
• The Lobster
• Manchester by the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Runners Up

• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Manchester by the Sea (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: Manchester by the Sea is the leader, but La La Land has been chomping at its heels and if it sweeps, this will be one clear indication.
Peter J. Patrick: Manchester by the Sea is far and away the year’s best original screenplay. A loss to La La Land or anything else in this category would be absurd.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: I have spent a lot of time cogitating on this award, and I am still unsure what I think will win. Manchester by the Sea has long seemed the likely winner, as it is a serious film, and those can do well in this category. It has by far the most precursor awards as well. But I just keep thinking that this is La La Land’s year and it might sneak in for the win. La La won the Golden Globe, Manchester the BAFTA. Neither won the Writers Guild, so there is no set frontrunner. I do not think that the other three nominees stand much of a chance, even though Hell or High Water has won more precursors than La La Land. I long thought that Manchester would win, but I am rethinking that and I expect that the lighter La La Land may waltz away with the Oscar after all.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Arrival
• Fences
• Hidden Fences
• Lion
• Moonlight (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

• Arrival (WL R) (TB R) (TL O)
• Hidden Fences (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: Moonlight is far and away the frontrunner, but watch out for the likes of Arrival, which has few places it can be recognized.
Peter J. Patrick: I can’t imagine Moonlight losing this, but if it does it will be to the feel good Hidden Figures.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: Moonlight seems to have this one down, even though it is roughly tied for the number of precursor wins with Arrival. However, it has wins from both the Writers Guild and the USC Scripter award, even though Arrival has a Writers Guild win as well. It probably will come down to just these two films, even though there is strong work from Fences, Hidden Figures, and Lion. For a long time I assumed that Fences would be the frontrunner as the Academy would like to honor the late August Wilson who also wrote the Tony and Pulitzer Prize-winning play it was based on. It never seemed to catch on and it did not win any precursor awards. Arrival is starting to look like the major bridesmaid at this year’s Oscars and it may not take home any awards despite eight nominations. This is probably its best chance to win, but I think the Oscar will go to Moonlight.

Best Original Score

• Jackie
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Lion
• Moonlight
• Passengers

Runners Up

• Jackie (WL O)
• Lion (PP F) [New] (TB R) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: As sure as La La Land is in Best Picture, so too is it here.
Peter J. Patrick: This one is a slam dunk for La La Land. Nothing is going to beat it. Lion, Jackie, and Moonlight are all distant seconds.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: The jazzy score of La La Land should easily win this Oscar. Not only does it have the most precursors, but it is from the most talked about movie of the season. La La Land is about life in Hollywood and actors and musicians, which will endear it to the Academy. It is also a movie where the music plays a large part in the film. None of the other scores had the same impact, though the lush work of Lion is nice if not totally awe inspiring. It is a more typical score, which is not bad, but music propelled La La Land so it will win.

Best Original Song

• Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
• Can’t Stop the Feeling – Trolls
• City of Stars – La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Empty Chair – Jim: The James Foley Story
• How Far I’ll Go – Moana

Runners Up

• Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land (WL O)
• How Far I’ll Go – Moana (PP F) [New] (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: Can anything stop “City of Stars?” Not likely.
Peter J. Patrick: This will almost certainly go to La La Land’s “City of Stars” unless voters want to throw a bone to Broadway sensation Lin-Manuel Miranda for Moana’s “How Far I’ll Go”.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: One of the songs from La La Land seems likely to win this, unless they end up splitting the vote and letting something else sneak in. “Audition” might have more feeling and it does move the plot forward, but it does not seem to have caught on the way “City of Stars” has. The song plays twice in the film and also serves as a recurring motif. It is pretty and heartfelt and will probably go on to win the Oscar. I think its main competition is not from “Audition” but from “How Far I’ll Go” from Disney’s Moana. I could see some in the Academy wanting to honor Broadway’s Lin-Manuel Miranda who had a banner year with last year’s smash Hamilton. They might feel hipper supporting someone that has suddenly become almost a household name. It might also succeed if the two songs from La La Land split the vote, which has happened in the past. Neither Sting’s somber “The Empty Chair” nor Justin Timberlake’s upbeat “Can’t Stop the Feeling” will stand much of a chance of winning. “City of Stars will” add to the haul that La La Land will take home on Oscar night.

Best Film Editing

• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moonlight

Runners Up

• Arrival (TL R)
• Hacksaw Ridge (TB R)
• Hell or High Water (WL F) [New]
• Moonlight (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: While many think La La Land is guaranteed this award, it’s lack of flashy editing could mean something like Hacksaw Ridge or Arrival or elsewhere-incapable-of-winning Hell or High Water.
Peter J. Patrick: This is another easy win for La La Land with Moonlight the most likely alternate.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: La La Land has been the favorite here and I do not see anything standing in its way to win. It has the most precursor awards, including one from the highly predictive editors guild. Arrival also won an editors guild award, but I do not see it winning here. I would have thought that the strongest competition would come from Hacksaw Ridge, as war movies, or any movie with lots of action and explosions, can do well here. Since it was not able to win the guild award over Arrival, it would seem unlikely to prevail here either. I would not think that Moonlight or Hell or High Water stand much of a chance of winning. Look for La La Land to win.

Best Cinematography

• Arrival
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Lion
• Moonlight
• Silence

Runners Up

• Lion (WL R) (TB R)
• Moonlight (PP F) [New]
• Silence (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: The American Society of Cinematographers went with Lion, but it would be modestly surprising if the Academy didn’t go for La La Land.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s another easy win for La La Land with Moonlight a long-shot alternative.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: The camerawork of La La Land is romantic and dreamy, much like the movie itself. From the massive song and dance number on a freeway ramp to more intimate scenes of characters dancing against the sunset or through the stars, it showed a depth and difficulty of filming that the Academy will have to honor. It won the most precursors with Moonlight coming in a distant second in the tally. Lion won the guild award, which was a huge surprise, but I would not expect that to repeat here. If something were to somehow beat La La Land I would think it would be Rodrigo Prieto’s work through the fog and mist of Japan in Silence. He did create some glorious imagery. In another year he might stand a chance of winning, but La La Land will easily win here.

Best Production Design

• Arrival
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Hail, Caesar!
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• Passengers (TB R)

Runners Up

• Arrival (PP F) [New]
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (WL R)
• La La Land (TB R)
• Passengers (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: Although I fail to see why La La Land should win this award, it is probably the frontrunner, though Arrival, Fantastic Beasts, and Passengers could all surprise.
Peter J. Patrick: Once again this should be an easy win for La La Land, with Arrival its likeliest closest runner-up.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: I am not totally certain that La La Land deserves this award, but I think it will likely win it. It has the most precursor awards, including one from the Art Directors Guild for Best Contemporary Design. Personally, I would give it to pretty much any of the other nominees, but it looks like it will take this one home. Arrival and Hail, Caesar! probably have the least chance of scoring an upset. Fantastic Beasts would be my choice for both the vintage sets, some of which have to crumble under the beasts, and the fantastical worlds created inside the magic office and an ordinary looking suitcase. Since it did not manage a win from the guild, though it did get the BAFTA, it may be out of the running. The film that could upset would be Passengers, a surprise winner by the guild. The world of the spaceship was elegant and intricate and it would be a reasonable winner. However, it looks likely to be won by La La Land.

Best Costume Design

• Allied
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Florence Foster Jenkins (WL O)(TL R)
• Jackie (PP R) (TB O)
• La La Land

Runners Up

• Allied (WL R)
• Florence Foster Jenkins (PP R)
• La La Land (TB O) (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: For Oscar voters, more is usually better and Florence Foster Jenkins has the most.
Peter J. Patrick: The early 1960s vs. the mid-1940s, the early 1960s wins.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: This has been a difficult category to predict, and almost any of the nominees could win. Allied boasted some gorgeous dresses for Marion Cotillard, but it probably stands the least chance of winning. Contemporary films rarely win this, but La La Land could be one that does. The brightly colored dresses used for the dance in “Someone in the Crowd” are memorable enough that it could win. Fantastic Beasts boasts lots of vintage 40s costumes and Jackie recreated a number of iconic 60s pieces. The film with the most original works was Florence Foster Jenkins, if just for the costumes she wore onstage, let alone the wealth of other vintage pieces in the film. It would seem Florence would easily win, but it recently lost out at the Costume Designers Guild awards to non-Oscar nominee Hidden Figures. Jackie and Fantastic Beasts also lost at the guild awards, whereas La La Land won for best Contemporary Costume Design. I do not know if that means that La La Land will go on to win this award too, but when the favorites falter, it could be poised to sneak in for a win. A win here could help propel the film to a tie for the most wins ever as it would start sweeping awards that were not thought likely for it. I am still going back and forth on that happening. My gut instinct is that something vintage is more likely to win, so I will predict Florence Foster Jenkins as the winner, but will not be surprised if La La Land sneaks in to take the Oscar.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• A Man Called Ove (PP O)
• Star Trek: Beyond (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Suicide Squad

Runners Up

• A Man Called Ove (WL F) [New] (TB O)
• Star Trek: Beyond (PP F) [New]
• Suicide Squad (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: Star Trek: Beyond seems safe, but might not be.
Peter J. Patrick: They do like their old-age makeup.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: With only three nominees, A Man Called Ove feels like the odd man out. It is from a foreign film and has subtle makeup, which can lead to a nomination but rarely to a win. So it comes down to either Star Trek: Beyond or Suicide Squad. Both films boast lots of makeup, which often helps a film win this award. I am inclined to go with Star Trek as it was the better film and had a wider range of makeup styles to go with because of all the aliens in the film. The Star Trek reboot also won this, which might be a strike against a second win. Both films did well at the box office, with Suicide Squad almost doubling the take of Star Trek. But it was just such an odd film that it is hard to see the Academy supporting it, even if it did land one of three nominations. I think Star Trek will win, but it will be a close vote.

Best Sound Mixing

• 13 Hours
• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge (PP F) [New]
• La La Land (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Rogue One

Runners Up

• Hacksaw Ridge (WL O) (TB R) (TL O)
• La La Land (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: La La Land is looking like a clear frontrunner, but Hacksaw Ridge and Arrival have few opportunities elsewhere and could benefit from a reward-everything mentality.
Peter J. Patrick: La La Land can’t win everything. Hacksaw Ridge would be a more worthy winner here.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: Musicals do well in this category, and La La Land has long seemed to be the frontrunner in this category. A win from the Cinema Audio Society cements the frontrunner status. I do not see anything standing in its way for the win. Hacksaw Ridge, Rogue One, and 13 Hours all have lots of explosions and shootings, which might better suit them to win in Sound Editing. Arrival was the quietest of the nominees and seems like it should be a possibility. However, if anything were to supplant La La Land, it would probably be Hacksaw Ridge. I just do not see that happening, and La La Land lands another trophy.

Best Sound Editing

• Arrival (PP F) [New] (TB R)
• Deepwater Horizon
• Hacksaw Ridge (WL O)(TL O)
• La La Land
• Sully

Runners Up

• Arrival (WL O)
• Hacksaw Ridge (PP F) [New] (TB R)
• La La Land (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge are probably the top competitors, but Oscar history slightly favors Hacksaw Ridge
Peter J. Patrick: This is Arrival’s best shot at a win, with Hacksaw Ridge right behind.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: With two wins from their guild in sound editing, Hacksaw Ridge looks poised to win this award. War movies often do well in this category, so it seems the likely winner. The only thing standing in its way could be a sweep by La La Land, which is a distinct possibility. It won a guild award for its music, but did not compete directly with Hacksaw in any category. The quieter films of Arrival, Sully, and Deepwater Horizon probably do not stand a chance of winning, so it comes down to the top two. Arrival and Deepwater would be decent choices, but I think they are out of the running. La La Land could win, but I think that the addition of all the explosions and other disparate sounds will put Hacksaw Ridge over the top.

Best Visual Effects

• Deepwater Horizon
• Doctor Strange
• The Jungle Book (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Kubo and the Two String (PP F)
• Rogue One

Runners Up

• Deepwater Horizon (TL R)
• Doctor Strange (TB R)
• Kubo and the Two String (WL O)
• Rogue One (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: The Jungle Book is an assured winner, but it would be a rare feat in this category to win on its only nomination.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s just a wild guess.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: The Jungle Book had almost total dominance at the Visual Effects Society awards that I expect it to win here as well. At this point it would be hard to picture anything else winning. Aside from the actor who played Mowgli, everything else was created using CGI technology, the animals, the fire, the jungle. For a nominally “live action” film, it was almost totally created by computers. Hopefully this isn’t the future of movies, but it will pave the way for an Oscar win. Deepwater Horizon and Doctor Strange each had wins at the VES, but probably do not have the momentum to triumph here. Deepwater with two wins to Strange’s one probably means it could have the best chance of an upset, but that seems unlikely to happen. The Jungle Book easily wins.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Land of Mine – Denmark
• A Man Called Ove – Sweden
• The Salesman – Iran (WL R) (TL F) [New]
• Tanna – Australia
• Toni Erdmann – Germany (WL O) (PP O)

Runners Up

• Land of Mine – Denmark (WL R) (PP R) [New]
• A Man Called Ove – Sweden (TB O)
• Toni Erdmann – Germany (TL F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: The competition is fierce and while Toni Erdmann seems like a safe bet, this category is seldom safe.
Peter J. Patrick: Comedy-drama Toni Erdmann has the edge, but never count out a war movie.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: Toni Erdmann from Germany long seemed to be the frontrunner and it still could go on to win. The only person I know who has seen it normally loves German films, but she really disliked this one. The Salesman has gotten very strong reviews and an earlier film by the director won this award, but for a long time this one had never gotten the traction to pass Toni. However, the director’s choice not to attend the Oscars over Donald Trump’s immigration ban may actually propel him to the winner’s circle. Hollywood tends to be a liberal place, and his stance will definitely earn him a number of votes. The Salesman was good, but I was not as taken with it as I had been with his earlier A Separation. For a while, what might have a slightly better chance of pulling an upset would be the earlier crowd favorite, A Man Called Ove. It is the only foreign language film that picked up any other nominations. Because of its early release it was seen by more people originally. It also has a higher rating by the public on Rotten Tomatoes. Tanna is Australia’s first nominee in this category and it was worth including, though I doubt it can go on to win. A friend thought Land of Mine was the best of the foreign language films, but it has not played in Denver yet, so I cannot pass judgment on it. Toni Erdmann seemed to have the momentum and it may go on to win the Oscar, but I would not be surprised if The Salesman sneaks past it to win.

Best Documentary Feature

• 13th
• Fire at Sea
• I Am Not Your Negro
• Life, Animated
• O.J.: Made in America (WL O) (PP O) (TB R) (TL O)

Runners Up

• 13th (PP F) [New] (TB R) (TL O)
• I Am Not Your Negro (WL F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: The epic documentary O.J.: Made in America has two weaknesses and they are both its own. Any of the others could upset.
Peter J. Patrick: The mammoth 8-hour O.J. will be the easy winner here.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: The almost eight hour O.J. documentary is not only the longest film ever nominated for an Oscar, but it is by far the most talked about nominee in this category this year. Although originally made for a television documentary, it has taken off in ways that most documentaries never do. The length may put off some voters who do not want to sit through something that long, but it would be surprising if anything else won. Its closest competition would come from Ava DuVernay’s 13th which deals with how black men have been treated since the 13th amendment passed which outlawed slavery. It was a disturbing film, full of lots of shocking details and is definitely worth seeing. It definitely is topical this year, but I still do not see it winning unless the length of O.J. makes voters go for a shorter film. I Am Not Your Negro, about the author James Baldwin, was also interesting, though it did not grab me the way 13th had. The use of Hollywood film clips did a great job of illustrating points Baldwin made. Life, Animated did not hold my interest as it should have. Fire at Sea about refugees trying to cross the Mediterranean is supposed to be good, but I have not seen it yet. I am not sure if any of the other films will really be in competition unless the length of O.J. makes the Academy voters look elsewhere, which could let 13th or I Am Not Your Negro sneak in to win. However, from all I hear, that is unlikely to happen and O.J.: Made in America will take home the Oscar.

Best Documentary Short Subject

• 4.1 Miles
• Extremis
• Joe’s Violin
• Watani: My Homeland
• The White Helmets (WL O) (PP F) [New] (TB O) (TL F)

Runners Up

• 4.1 Miles (WL O) (TB O)
• Extremis (PP F) [New]
• Joe’s Violin (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: The White Helmets is timely and compassionate, which gives it an edge.
Peter J. Patrick: This is just a hunch.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: This was a serious set of documentaries. As one friend said after we had seen them, “Who knew that the one about the Holocaust survivor would end up being the cheeriest one.” As a group, I think we all liked The White Helmets the best. It is about workers in Syria who are usually the first to go in to rescue people after bombings. It is tense and at times disheartening, but the men of the film all believe strongly in what they are doing. I hope it wins, but the lighter Joe’s Violin might sneak in for the win. This is about the violin that an elderly survivor of the Siberian labor camps donates to an instrument drive in NYC. It shows both the school that was chosen and follows the young lady who will play that violin while in school. When she graduates it will go to another student. It is a nice heartwarming film, but it did not seem as deep as The White Helmets. As a feel good film, it may go on to win, however. Watani: My Homeland follows a refugee family from Syria through Turkey and eventually to their new home in Germany. It captures feelings well, but a bit more information about how it all happened would have been appreciated. Extremis deals with end of life care following doctors, families, and patients. It is not easy to watch, offers no easy answers, but will probably not win. 4.1 Miles is a coast guard crew on the Greek Island of Lesbos saving refugees trying to make it to Europe from Turkey. It was probably the weakest of the set. The White Helmets deserves to win, and it might as it was the longest film and those often win. However, Joe’s Violin is an easier choice to vote for and may prove to be the winner.

Best Animated Short Film

• Blind Vaysha
• Borrowed Time
• Pear Cider and Cigarettes
• Pearl
• Piper (WL O) (PP R) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

• Borrowed Time (WL O)
• Pear Cider and Cigarettes (TB R) (TL R)
• Pearl (PP R)

Wesley Lovell: Piper is a solid choice, but if the Academy wants to break up the Disney/Pixar party, it does so here more so than in Animated Feature.
Peter J. Patrick: This is just another hunch.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: This category will come down to either the short cute Pixar-produced Piper or the long, serious Pear Cider and Cigarettes. My guess is that they will go with the humorous Piper. It played in front of Zootopia, so it was seen by a number of people. Though more importantly, in my opinion, at a recent showing of the animated shorts it produced strong bursts of laughter from the audience. People responded to the emotions of this charming six minute film and that should produce a win. Pear Cider, on the other hand, delves into the personal history of a man and his self-destructive friend over the years. It had striking animation and an involving storyline. While the longest film can often win here, this one may be too long to hold the full attention of the voting crowd. And others may be turned off by the character who seems determined to drink (and fight and recklessly drive) himself into oblivion. I do not think any of the other three nominees will stand much of a chance of winning. Borrowed Time boasts beautiful vistas of the cliffs of the American southwest, but the storyline felt a little thin. Blind Vaysha may have a unique animated style, reminiscent of woodblock prints, but a dour story, dark animation, and a somewhat simplistic moral will probably keep it out of the winner’s circle. Pearl is about a father and daughter who use their car as a home at times as they pursue dreams of music careers. It is nice and boasts some good songs, but I am not sure that will be enough for it to win. Pear Cider could pull an upset, but I think that people will go for the heart-warming tale of growing up found in Piper.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Ennemis Interieurs (TL R)
• La Femme et le TGV (WL O)
• Silent Nights (TB O)
• Sing
• Timecode (PP F) [New]

Runners Up

• La Femme et le TGV (TL R)
• Silent Nights (WL O) (PP F) [New]
• Sing (TB R)

Wesley Lovell: Surprises are likely in this category, but my initial instinct was for La Femme et le TGV and I’ll stick with that.
Peter J. Patrick: This is yet another hunch.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: This is a harder category to predict. Often the longest film wins, though four of them are close to a half hour long. Those four are also fairly serious films, though a couple have some humor in them. The shortest film, Timecode from Spain, was enjoyable as one watches the antics of bored security guards. It was fun but probably too slight to win. Sing deals with children in a school choir rebelling against their choir director. The director got strong performances from a young cast but I am not sure that it can win, unless the feeling of wanting to rebel against an oppressor rings a bell in the voters. Silent Nights tells the story of an illegal Ghanese immigrant living in Denmark. He starts a relationship with a volunteer at a homeless shelter, but when she learns more about him things get strained. It is good, but did not have the emotional impact of some of the others. My guess is that it will come down to Ennemis Inerieurs and La Femme et la TGV. Ennemis is mostly a two-man drama set in a police station where a French-Algerian immigrant’s interview to get French citizenship takes a wholly different track than expected when the interviewer gets into questions about terrorists. It is set during the 1990s, but the crowd watching it got very involved in it. La Femme is a more lightweight film about a woman who waves daily at a passing train. It is based on true events. Eventually she starts a writing relationship with the train’s engineer. It is sweet and boasts a good performance by the lead, but it also felt a bit pat at the end. La Femme may well win as it is a feel good movie, but the darker and more enigmatic Ennemis Interieurs would be a more worthy winner.