September 2, 2016

The Light Between Oceans

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Everyone seems to think this is a solid player this year, but a Labor Day release is a bad sign. The Academy seldom pulls films relaesed over the holiday into its warm embrace. This might buck the tradition, but I’m not optimistic.”
Oscar Results: Failure. Critics didn’t seem to care for it and audiences ignored it. The Academy wasn’t about to give it much attention.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This appears to be a hefty drama, which won’t play very well with regular audiences. That likely means that the film plays modestly through its short run and finishes unspectacularly.”
Box Office Results: $12.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Relased on the Labor Day holiday, this drama was never expected to amount to much, but even with those low expectations, it still managed to underplay them.

Morgan

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Nothing.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Horror has done well, but not on Labor Day weekend and certainly not sci-fi-horror, so I doubt the film will have much legs.”
Box Office Results: $3.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] It was hoping to be the next Ex Machina, but was very quickly ignored and forgotten.

Max Rose (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. Another Labor Day release that has Oscar potential. This one, however, is even less likely to earn Oscar consideration. With the long gestation from festival launch to big screen release, Jerry Lewis may just have to try harder for a late-career accolade.”
Oscar Results: Failure. Talk of a late-career award for Jerry Lewis was fleeting and the film forgotten quickly.
Box Office Prospects: $2.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There just isn’t much of a market for films about aging musicians. It will probably be big in France, but Jerry Lewis hasn’t been a major box office player here in a very long time.”
Box Office Results: $0.0667 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Jerry Lewis hasn’t been a box office staple in the U.S. in several decades. This just proved that he’s still not all that popular here.

Yoga Hosers (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Kevin Smith’s last two films were utter disasters at the box office and I suspect this film to follow that trajectory.”
Box Office Results: N/AThoughts: PULLED FROM RELEASE SCHEDULE

September 9, 2016

Before I Wake

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. September’s not a bad place to release horror films and this one certainly has some uniqueness to it that might appeal to modern horror fans, but I don’t expect it to be the next Paranormal Activity.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: PULLED FROM RELEASE SCHEDULE

Sully

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. If the critics embrace it, the film could be a player. Eastwood has long been admired by Oscar voters. The problem is the early release date tracks with past Oscar failures like Flags of Our Fathers, so they may be hoping for a box office gift rather than a shiny golden one.”
Oscar Results: Success. Although the film’s support outside of the tech races dried up fairly quickly, it managed to net a common award for Eastwood-directed films, a sound citation. This one was for Sound Editing.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Clint Eastwood seems to have two box office modes. Sub-$40 and $100 million plus. That means this film could be either a big hit or a troubling failure. Reviews will tell us more, but Tom Hanks has a better track record, so it’s possible the film finally tops out in the $70 or $80 million range.”
Box Office Results: $125.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Clint Eastwood has a certain appeal to American audiences. Many of his films are accessible and this makes them potential box office hits. This movie was no exception.

When the Bough Breaks

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Nothing.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The market for this type of film has fallen dramatically in the last couple of years. It seems that even the most intriguing concepts are failing to connect. I doubt this does much better than those.”
Box Office Results: $29.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] There wasn’t much to expect from this low-budget thriller, but it still managed to surpass my low expectations.

The Wild Life

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Nothing.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The animation doesn’t look good and while sometimes being animated helps win over family audiences without much else to do, I think so far this seems like it’s destined to be a dud.”
Box Office Results: $8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Animated films are typically quite popular, but audiences won’t just flock to see every poorly-animated, cheesy flick that comes to the cineplex.

September 16, 2016

Blair Witch

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Nothing.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The original film was a hit. The sequel was a bomb. That doesn’t leave many options for this film, which I suspect will play somewhere in the middle, likely on the high end of the average horror film in the last few years.”
Box Office Results: $20.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Producers were hopingt his would revitalize the series; however, as they learned with the first sequel, no one was really excited about the continued prospects of these films.

Bridget Jones’s Baby

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Nothing.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. It’s been far too long since the original films came out and, by all impressions, the sequel wasn’t very successful. Will fans still want to see her so long after or will this be another jolt of nostalgia like My Big Fat Greek Wedding‘s follow up this year, which was mostly a failure.”
Box Office Results: $24.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Too many years have passed and Bridget Jones is no longer a character that audiences particularly care about seeing.

Snowden

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. Stone hasn’t had an Oscar contender in over two decades. I doubt very much that this will break his streak, though it is still remotely possible.”
Oscar Results: Failure. There was some minor talk of Joseph Gordon-Levitt scoring a nod in lead actor, but apart from a minor citation or two, he went largely unheralded by critics and thus was forgotten.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. If you ask anyone how well Oliver Stone does at the box office recently, they’ll say he’s not performed well; however, looking at his numbers, they’ve been surprisingly solid. They haven’t been outright hits, but they haven’t been abject failures either. This could be another mid-sized feature.”
Box Office Results: $21.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] We shouldn’t have expected much from Oliver Stone. His highly politicized films just haven’t had the box office strength they once might have.

September 23, 2016

The Magnificent Seven

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film has a lot of elements that might appeal to voters in the creative categories, but the top tier ones may be out of reach.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The film didn’t get a lot of support from critics and was all but forgotten come Oscar time.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. With Denzel Washington and Chris Pratt being heavily touted for the film, I suspect that this might be the best performing western at the box office in too many years to count.”
Box Office Results: $93.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It’s not an abject failure, but producers were hoping that the combination of Denzel Washington and Chris Pratt would catapult this western into the stratosphere. It’s a respectable performance, but not an exceptional one.

Storks

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. There are too many power players in competition this year. The film just doesn’t look like it has what it takes to compete heavily.”
Oscar Results: Failure. Critics weren’t impressed, nor were audiences.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The film doesn’t look that great and the production house only has one film for reference. Still, any animated film of sufficient quality will do well at the box office, just not Disney or Pixar well.”
Box Office Results: $72.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Even big animated products from major animation houses can get mired it ungainly approaches to storytelling and it was clear the audiences didn’t connect with this film as much as the producers had hoped.

The Dressmaker (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. There’s little doubt that a November release might suggest confidence in the principals of the film to carry out major Oscar consideration, but a September release doesn’t bolster confidence.”
Oscar Results: Close. While it didn’t earn a nomination, many thought it might emerge as a favorite among costume designers.
Box Office Prospects: $12 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The cast alone could help propel this indie to a strong performance at the specialty box office, but even that isn’t a guarantee.”
Box Office Results: $2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It had an appealing cast and the potential to be a crowd-pleaser, but something happened in its launch that kept it from breaking away like many films of the 1990s would have. I suspect the studio that released it didn’t invest nearly as much in it as it could have.

The Queen of Katwe (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. It looks like a quaint and emotionally potent little film, but I doubt the Academy will pay any attention to it.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The film never took off at the box office and was subsequently ignored from all quarters.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Unless it’s built on an existing property, Disney’s live-action product hasn’t been able to live up to box office expectations. This is also quite different from a lot of those other films, which may be why it’s releasing at the specialty box office first. That said, I can’t imagine it breaking through very well.”
Box Office Results: $8.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Disney’s live-action slate, outside of its repurposed animation adaptations and its Marvel properties, struggles mightily to draw audiences to their films and while this film received excellent reviews, the people never flocked to see it.

September 30, 2016

Deepwater Horizon

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. Apart from being an explosive film, which might merit consideration in the tech categories, the film’s subject matter is unlikely to impress voters elsewhere.”
Oscar Results: Success. The film held on and eked out to tech nominations in Sound Editing and Visual Effects, the latter being the least likely option.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The subject matter doesn’t seem that interesting, but the action dramatics might help it make decent money at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $61.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Were this Michael Bay, it might have been a hit, but it seemed like the maritime disaster wasn’t all that appealing to audiences who gave it some money, but not nearly as much as some would have expected.

The Edge of Seventeen

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. Comedy gets no respect from the Academy, so I wouldn’t expect too much from the film, unless it blows away critics.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film looks a lot funnier than it has any right to be, which might give it some legs. However, with so many films releasing the same day, it might get lost in the shuffle.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: RELEASE WAS PUSHED BACK TO NOVEMBER

Masterminds

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Nothing.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The R-rated comedy has had some failures recently and this long-delayed (studio woes) film doesn’t look like it’s about to be very successful.”
Box Office Results: $17.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Relativity went through financial turmoil and pulled a bunch of its releases. As each of them has made it to the cineplex, they’ve all suffered horrendous defeats at the box office. This was just the latest in a long line of such failures.

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Always look at Tim Burton films, regardless of actual quality, as potential Oscar nominees in the down ballot races. This certainly looks like it will be in play for several Oscar nominations.”
Oscar Results: Failure. It may have done modest box office, but outside of the guilds, it was entirely forgotten.
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Tim Burton has a spotty track record, but this darling fantasy film, based on a popular novel, could do quite well at the box office considering the competition releasing around it.”
Box Office Results: $87.2 (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The quirky story wasn’t bound to be a blockbuster, but it did quite respectable business all things considered.

American Honey (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Nothing.
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Doubtful. The film may have been positively received by critics, but I wouldn’t expect too much out of the specialty box office for this.”
Box Office Results: $0.663 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It was supposed to be a darling of art house cinema, but in spite of strong reviews, those persnickety audiences never showed.