October 7, 2016

The Birth of a Nation

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. After its premiere at Sundance earlier this year, the film became an instant lock for Best Picture and several other categories, mostly on the heels of the OscarSoWhite controversy. However, anticipation of the film has cooled dramatically after it was revealed that writer/director/star Nate Parker had successfully eluded sexual assault charges several years ago. That kind of controversy isn’t what the Academy likes to bring to the table. Response was muted at its later festival outings, so it’s possible the film fades into obscurity by Oscar time. It’s also possible that it surges again late in the year, but Parker may find himself ignored everywhere even if the film does manage a few nominations.”
Oscar Results: Failure. It was supposed to be the big Oscar contender of the year, but writer/producer/director/star Nate Parker’s rape controversy sank it like a stone.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Sometimes controversies help films, but whether this one will or not remains to be seen. The film might perform better later in the season with Oscar buzz behind it.”
Box Office Results: $15.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Modest. It’s surprising the film did as well as it did considering the controversy swirling around it.

Friend Request

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Postponed a few times and entering a busy and tough Halloween marketplace, this latest teen-targeted horror flick doesn’t seem to have enough broad interest to sustain solid box office returns.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film was pushed back to September 2017

The Girl on the Train

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Emily Blunt has been flirting with Oscar for years and this could be her opportunity. Little has been seen or heard of the film, which may not bode well for its Oscar chances. It will either follow a path similar to Gone Girl, or it will be utterly ignored.”
Oscar Results: Failure. There was a brief flirtation with Oscar consideration for Emily Blunt, but the Best Actress competition was fierce. She still secured nominations throughout the season, including at BAFTA, but that just wasn’t enough.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Female-led thrillers have done well in recent years, but not so well as to be guaranteed box office hits. This one has the benefit of a best-selling novel to bolster its potential.”
Box Office Results: $75.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] The film managed to perform quite well in spite of weak support from critics.

Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Considering the fates of recent tween-targeted book adaptations like Alexander the the Terrible…Bad Day and Diary of a Wimpy Kid, it seems the cap is in the mid $60 million range. This one should approach that even if it doesn’t quite make it.”
Box Office Results: $20 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The film was supposed to be a hit, but the middle school audiences that were supposed to help accomplish that didn’t show up.

October 14, 2016

The Accountant

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film hasn’t played the festivals, so early word isn’t available; however, if it’s good enough, it could give Affleck a shot at an Oscar nomination. I suspect, though, that the film might be a miss, which means like Clooney, one of his better performances might go ignored.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The film never materialized into an Oscar contender.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The closest parallel I can draw to this film is George Clooney’s The American, an artistic hitman film that didn’t perform nearly as well as it should have. This time, it’s Ben Affleck in the lead role. The box office has a dearth of these types of films, so it’s likely it might perform a bit better than expectations.”
Box Office Results: $86.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] While the film didn’t gain a lot of attention upon release, it quietly earned more money than expected.

Kevin Hart: What Now?

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Kevin Hart’s first stand-up concert barely made more than $7 million. His second after a string of box office hits made $32 million. It’s possible his latest will out perform both. By how much, I’m not certain.”
Box Office Results: $23.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Kevin Hart’s prior concert films did much better, so either this is an indication that his popularity is fading or the concept of theatrical releases for comedy shows is decreasing in popularity.

Max Steel

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There aren’t a lot of examples of teen-targeted superhero films out there, so it’s hard to get an inkling of what the market will be like. Considering the competition, it could be a break out hit or it could be completely ignored.”
Box Office Results: $3.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The audience for this kind of film just wasn’t there.

Certain Women (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Although Reichardt’s box office fortunes haven’t always been good, she’s been in the Oscar conversation a couple of times. The problem is that the closest she came, with a celebrated performance by Michelle Williams, was 8 years ago with Wendy & Lucy. Still, this cast is strong, which could change the conversation if the critics rally behind it.”
Oscar Results: Failure. While the film had garnered minor support from critics, it just couldn’t manage to get Oscar’s attention.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Kelly Reichardt has yet to have a box office hit. This film could change that, but it’s just as likely it will be ignored even with the cast involved.”
Box Office Results: $1.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film was never going to be a huge hit, but even on the indie circuit, this kind of results a shade disappointing.

October 21, 2016

Boo! A Madea Halloween

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Tyler Perry’s fortunes have diminished in recent years and even his vaunted Madea character hasn’t done well. However, this Halloween-themed comedy could be the remedy for horror fatigue this year.”
Box Office Results: $73.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] Although his last few movies weren’t terribly successful, Tyler Perry proved he still has the ability to conjure an audience.

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Tom Cruise’s first outing as the Jack Reacher character was a decent box office hit, raking in $80 million. They saw enough potential to greenlight a second film, but can lightning strike twice? I’m not certain. There aren’t a lot of strong box office performers in the line-up, so it could take advantage of that lack of competition and perform quite well, possibly even better than the original.”
Box Office Results: $58.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Although the first film was a minor success, the desire to turn this into a franchise took hold and resulted in a less-than-spectacular result. Audiences just didn’t want to give Jack Reacher their time again.

Keeping Up with the Joneses

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. R-rated comedies have done uneven business this year so far, but this one looks fresh enough that it could do well. However, it’s opening against strong competition, which might hinder its progress.”
Box Office Results: $14.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The advertising campaign for this film wasn’t very good and its end result was a colossal failure in spite of am appealing concept.

Ouija: Origin of Evil

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. 2014’s Ouija was a solid performer and didn’t have the advantage of a period setting. That factor has helped a number of horror flicks perform incredibly well at the box office. Opening so close to Halloween will almost certainly help.”
Box Office Results: $35.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Here we have an example of how prequels and sequels to seeminly popular horror films aren’t always advisable.

American Pastoral (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Although the concept might pique some Oscar voters’ minds, I doubt the film will cross-over to become enough of a hit with audiences and critics to make much headway in the race.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The film never managed to develop into an Oscar contender.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. I’d be surprised if this performs well even in the specialty box office. It just doesn’t seem like the “surprise hit” one would hope.”
Box Office Results: $0.544 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not only was it not a surprise hit, it wasn’t even close to being a hit.

Moonlight (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. Its festival run has yielded rave reviews, so it could be a major player at the Oscars this year.”
Oscar Results: Not only was it a major Oscar contender, pulling in 8 nominations, it became a surprise winner for Best Picture of the year along with two other more expected prizes for Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Bolstered by a strong Oscar campaign, this film could have a lot of legs appealing to multiple demographics inside and outside the niche specialty box office circuit.”
Box Office Results: $25.4 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] The film is sure to be in theaters for another month or so, so this tally might climb, but based on this weekend’s preliminary numbers, the film isn’t likely to top $30 or $35 million, which is still solid business for a film with such a small budget.

October 28, 2016

Inferno

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first adaptation of Dan Brown’s novel The Da Vinci Code was a huge box office hit in 2006, taking in more than $217 million at the box office. Three years later, the first sequel Angels & Demons did well, but not comparably, pulling in only $133 million. Ron Howard and Tom Hanks are back again 7 years later hoping for big box office numbers. The problem is that films releasing so long after their predecessors have struggled mightily to attain the successes of their predecessors. This could be another prime example or the exception, it’s hard to know for sure which it will be.”
Box Office Results: $34.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Tom Hanks is a solid box office performer, but after the dismal performance of the prior film in this series with audiences and the long span between releases, it’s little surprise that the film didn’t quite measure up to expectations.

Rings

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Like The Da Vinci Code and its sequels, the Ring franchise may struggle to make bank. The first film earned an impressive $129 million, but the sequel lost almost half its numbers to finish with $76 million. The first film was 2002, the second was 2005. We’re now eleven years removed and that may be too much. However, it’s opening right before Halloween, so its opening weekend numbers will be much higher than they might have otherwise been, but the subsequent weekend plummet will be huge.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film was pushed back to February 2017