November 4, 2016

Doctor Strange

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While the film will most certainly boast lots of visual effects, there’s no indication the film will be able to pull off a VFX nomination.”
Oscar Results: Nominee. Best Visual Effects.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. If the performance of prior Marvel origins is any indication, this should be a slam dunk at the box office. Its highest potential dependent entirely on how good the film is.”
Box Office Results: $232.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] Performing about where we expected it to, Doctor Strange continues the long Marvel box office tradition.

Hacksaw Ridge

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Early word was positive, so the film could be Mel Gibson’s return to the limelight. The problem is, it’s been overshadowed by a lot of other movies recently, so its chances may hinge entirely on box office statistics.”
Oscar Results: Success. Not only did it manage the nominations we expected, in places like Best Actor and the sound categories, it even managed a surprise nomination for director Mel Gibson, whom we weren’t sure if Hollywood had yet forgiven.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. War dramas aren’t as big as they used to be at the box office, but with the names involved, it could be a bigger hit than I expect.”
Box Office Results: $67.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] Although it wasn’t to the heights of box office some recent war dramas have achieved, it outpaced my expectations, which has to account for someing.

Trolls

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. Even if the film does decently with critics and at the box office, there are a lot of more prominent competitors this year that could squeeze it out of consideration. In a shallower year, it might have been a contender for a nomination.”
Oscar Results: Success. Although my prospects comment was referencing Animated Feature, where it did not get nominated, I had not referenced the sure-thing Original Song nomination, which it did get.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Animated films, even the worst of them, can often be big performers at the box office. This might perform better than expected because of its ebullient nature combined with the musical component.”
Box Office Results: $153.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] The film may not have had the greatest of reviews, but it proved that computer animated films can still do decent box office.

Bleed for This (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. There is some talk that the film will be a player at the Oscars, but there are few places I see it as a competitor and those places have a lot of potential nominees and victims.”
Oscar Results: Failure. There was some minor buzz early on that the film could manage Creed-level nominations, the film was a box office disappointment and the Academy just didn’t seem to care.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The platform release might help build buzz, but it might just as easily kill its potential if audiences don’t immediately respond well to it.”
Box Office Results: $5.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The producers likely hoped that the film would ride critical acclaim to box office glory, but they didn’t count on the early buzz being drowned out less-than-spectacular reviews.

Loving (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The film did well enough at the festivals to earn a place in the conversation with Ruth Negga its most likely nominee. On top of that, the film comes from a director whose bubbled under long enough that this might be what pulls him above water.”
Oscar Results: Success. While the film didn’t manage to put Jeff Nichols fully into the limelight, the film earned strong revies and although she had faded towards the end of Oscar season, Ruth Negga managed to eke out the film’s sole nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It will have to be a critics darling and an Oscar nominee to do much business. Right now, I see it performing adequately at the specialty box office, but not so well on a national level.”
Box Office Results: $7.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Even when you have an Oscar nominee on board, box office doesn’t naturally follow. One citation and stellar reviews couldn’t help this film move beyond the specialty box office.

November 11, 2016

Almost Christmas

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Failure. It was never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There hasn’t been a holiday hit at the box office in some time and this film could very easily become that hit.”
Box Office Results: $42.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] This should have been a slamdunk box office hit, but it ended up being a meager peformer.

Arrival

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. The film has received raves on the festival circuit and is certain to be a key player in both major and creative cateogries this year.”
Oscar Results: Success. The film landed eight Oscar nominations and almost went home empty-handed, if not for the Best Sound Editing win. However, the film was also a minor failure in the fact that star Amy Adams failed to secure a nomination even as a prohibitively strong competitor.
Box Office Prospects: $175 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The last few sci-fi films that tackle weighty issues have been good box office performers. This might be a tougher sell as it doesn’t sound to be as action heavy as Gravity or Interstellar.”
Box Office Results: $100.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Perhaps the film was too contemplative to become a breakaway box office success, but topping $100 million for this kind of film is a solid peformance.

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. This was supposed to be one of the year’s spoilers, but buzz out of the festivals has indicated that it’s good, but not nearly as great as critics were expecting. However, with a solid box office push and solid, even if not exuberant, review could still yield some Oscar results.”
Oscar Results: Failure. Not only did the film utterly flop at the box office, but the critics pounced hard on the film, leaving it bloodied and forgotten by the time Oscar voters got to it. A rare Ang Lee failure.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. With the cast involved and Ang Lee’s reputation, the trailers are interesting enough to make this part-war movie a big hit.”
Box Office Results: $1.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] How does a film with this much buzz and industry cred fall so far from grace? By pushing a technology that, like Peter Jackson’s attempt to push format changes with The Hobbit films, just wasn’t ready for public consumption. Likely the format didn’t help his film much, but the critics were generally dismissive, which proved disappointing to Lee’s many fans.

Shut In

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Failure. It was never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Horror has taken a hit this year with few breakout successes. This one is unique enough it could play well with recalcitrant genre fans, but its post-Halloween positioning might be a good thing.”
Box Office Results: $6.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not all horror flicks are equal and the ones that don’t spark the interest of critics need some other leverage to earn box office success. This film couldn’t manage either.

November 18, 2016

The Edge of Seventeen

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. Some say there’s a chance stars Hailee Steinfeld (lead) and Woody Harrelson (support) could be players, as could the screenplay. I have serious misgivings about this. If it’s the next Juno, perhaps, but nothing seems to indicate that’s going to be the case.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The film didn’t manage more than muted buzz that never went anywhere.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. A raucous coming of age dramedy with incredibly humorous trailers could be a break-out hit if it fidns its footing.”
Box Office Results: $14.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The trailer was hilarious, but the studio didn’t do the right degree of promotion to give it an edge. The extraordinary reviews should have helped, but didn’t.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The Harry Potter franchise had its ups and downs with the Oscars, but the period setting and copious effects should give this new franchise a boost in the creative categories.”
Oscar Results: Success. Not only did the film manage to secure two deserved Oscar nominations, it became the first film in the Harry Potter universe to win any Oscar. This one was for Best Costume Design.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The film has a built-in audience and some spectacular effects woven into its trailer. The combination should keep the film afloat through the holiday season for one of the year’s best box office performances.”
Box Office Results: $234 M
Thoughts: [Success]

Friend Request

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Teen-targeted horror films haven’t been the boon they should be, so it’s doubtful this film will be a breakout success, though it’s always possible.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Release reschedueld for 9/22/17.

Manchester by the Sea (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. The buzz for the film has been deafening. So much so that Casey Affleck is being talked about as a slam dunk nominee and the most likely winner. The film won’t be a slouch either and could play spoiler in a year where several frontrunners have hit snags.”
Oscar Results: Success. Earning 6 Oscar nominations, and taking home two trophies, Manchester by the Sea did precisely what was expected in terms of precursors and the Oscars.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film has received nearly universal praise on the festival circuit and a platform release will do wonders for building word of mouth. Whether it breaks out beyond the specialty box office remains to be seen, but a solid Oscar nominations haul should keep it flying through the early part of 2017.”
Box Office Results: $47.7 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] When you have that much Oscar buzz, a solid box office performance is expected. While it didn’t surpass many other recent efforts, this result is still quite strong for a film not winning Best Picture.

Nocturnal Animals (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. The films stars, Amy Adams, Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Shannon, and Aaron Taylor-Johnson have been getting strong notices out of the festival circuit, as has the film. Tom Ford’s prior effort (his directorial debut A Single Man), scored a nomination for star Colin Firth. A weaker than expected Best Actor slate could allow Gyllenhaal to earn his long-overdue second nomination while Adams will have a tougher time against a solid slate in Best Actress. Supporting Actor will have plenty of room for one or the other of Shannon and Taylor-Johnson, possibly even both. With a raft of acting nominations, major nominations in Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay are also possible.”
Oscar Results: Success. This did manage a single Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon), but that was it. The film was thought to be a bigger player than this, but crumbled under pressure.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A film as stylish as this will struggle to find appeal outside of the specialty box office, but Oscar could bolster its chances if it can see its way past the material to nominate it.”
Box Office Results: $10.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Whle it managd to top Manchester by the Sea in its opening weekend, the unusual storyline and the extreme artistic elements may have turned away more people than expected.

November 23, 2016

Allied

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. On paper, this looks like a slam dunk Oscar nominee, but upon closer inspection, and an utter lack of festival play, suggests the film may be generating a false positive on prognosticators’ lists.”
Oscar Results: Success. While the film received mediocre-to-good reviews, the film was barely a blip on the Oscar radar. In the end, it managed a Best Costume Design nomination and that was it.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. This wartime thriller might have been huge at the box office, but star Brad Pitt’s recent divorce and subsequent revelations of possible abuse may hinder the film’s chances. The trailer might be pleasing enough to overcome some of that, but not likely all of it.”
Box Office Results: $40.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Perhaps there’s something to the notion that after Brad Pitt split from his popular super-couple partner Angelina Jolie he might be a bit of poison and this film may have provd that. While it was the kind of movie that performs well over Thanksgiving, the film did only marginally good business and failed to ignite the box office. Had the rumors of his philandering not included this film’s co-star, it might have been an easier sale.

Bad Santa 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Failure. It was never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The original was a modest success at the box office, but the sequel may be too far removed to be a strong player at the box office. Still, audiences wanting something other than prototypical holiday fare might give it a go.”
Box Office Results: $17.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The original film was hilarious, but sometimes comedy sequels just don’t go over well and this is yet another in a long string of high profile comedies that developed sequels that flopped.

Moana

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. The film has a lot of competition, even from its parent company (both Zootopia and Finding Dory will be in play for Disney and Pixar respectively). That might hinder its chances and a disastrous critical reception could spell its doom. However, right now, everything looks clear for the film to at least score a Best Animated Feature nomination, though a win is doubtful.”
Oscar Results: Success. Those two Oscar nominations were entirely expected. As such, the film did precisely what it was foreshadowed to do and nothing more.
Box Office Prospects: $175 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Disney’s holiday animated releases have been, by and large, hugely successful. The Good Dinosaur is the loan exception. That should give Moana a solid shot of making sizable bank.”
Box Office Results: $248.6 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] Proving that Disney’s dominance as a purveyor of popular princess paychecks continues even to new titles and figuers, this box office is nothing short of stellar.

Rules Don’t Apply

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. This is another drama that, on paper, looks like an Oscar certainty, with Oscar winners and nominees by the handfuls; however, the film hasn’t played the festivals and director Warren Beatty’s recent track record is insignificant. Still, if the film ends up with decent reviews, it could show up in some creative categories and possibly yield a Supporting Actress nomination for Annette Bening. Rave reviews could put it directly in the hunt for several major awards.”
Oscar Results: Failure. On paper, everything sounded great for the film’s Oscar prospects. A period dramedy starring two up-and-coming actors directed by a Hollywood legend who also co-starred alongside other modern legends. It had everything, including a wonderful title song. Yet, the film utterly disappeared after the film received mostly negative reviews.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A period drama about Hollywood’s Golden Era might pique the interest of film enthusiasts, but broad audience appreciation has been difficult to obtain. This film doesn’t look like it will be able to overcome that built-in reticence.”
Box Office Results: $3.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Those negative reviews also killed the film’s box office potential. Perhaps if it had been released after star Alden Ehrenreich appeared in the Star Wars Han Solo standalone film it might have done better, but as it stands, it died a spectacular death at the box office.

November 25, 2016

Lion (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. When reviews out of the festival are as positive as this, you have to consider the film one of the major players. However, the trailer leaves a lot to be desired and a poor box office performance won’t give Academy voters much impetus to watch their screeners unless they can get them in hand long before everyone else, which is certainly a viable strategy for a movie like this.”
Oscar Results: Success. The reviews were indeed strong and the film managed to pull out six nominations, though it went home empty-handed.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. An indie drama about an Indian boy searching for his mother is not the kind of concept that sells well to mass audiences. The limited release will help it build buzz of its strong festival reception, but becoming a hit will be very challenging unless it can get some Oscar recognition.”
Box Office Results: $51.1 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] Here you have an example of how to make a popular hit out of an international drama. Although it isn’t quite to the level of success of ealy Miramax efforts, Harvey Weinstein continues to show that he knows how to pick crowdpleasers.