December 2, 2016

Incarnate

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. While horror fans can do well, the post-Thanksgiving weekend isn’t the best place to launch one. With minimal advertising, I suspect this one will be easily forgotten.”
Box Office Results: $4.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not all horror films are equal and this film mcertainly proved that with its utterly dismal performance.

Jackie (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The film will certainly be nominated, for Best Actress (Portman) at the least. It’s also a key competitor in several races like Production Design, Costume Design, Original Score, Original Screenplay, Picture and Director respectively.”
Oscar Results: Minor Success: While the film captured the expected Best Actress nomination, it support elsewhere largely cratered, leaving it with a scant three Oscar nominations, the two others in creative categories.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While the prestige of the pic is sure to send it into the specialty box office stratosphere, general audiences may not have much interest in seeing the film. However, Natalie Portman could help that, as could the dire state of politics at present.”
Box Office Results: $13.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Had it been an Oscar contender, it might have done better at the box office. Still, all things considered, it did decently.

December 9, 2016

Office Christmas Party

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. A holiday-themed gross-out comedy could be just what audiences asked for and the trailers certainly make it look like it has a lot of box office potential”
Box Office Results: $54.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It wasn’t the hit most wanted and even underperformed modest expectations.

La La Land (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. This is one of the year’s top contenders. Not only is it almost assured a Best Picture nomination and many other categories, Emma Stone is currently the frontrunner for the win in Best Actress.”
Oscar Results: Success: With a record-tying 14 Oscar nominations, La La Land seemed poised to win the big prize. It captured six accolades going into the final award of the evening, including Best Director and Best Actress. Ultimately, it was thwarted by the scrappy underdogs from Moonlight, in a shocking twist to the evening no one was expecting with an added flub to make the event memorable.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While the film may not become a breakout hit, the reviews have been excellent and a solid performance should be well within range.”
Box Office Results: $151.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Musicals either become events and do strong box office or they fade into the sidelines. This was one that managed to succeed.

December 16, 2016

Collateral Beauty

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The film looks a bit light in terms of critical weight, but Smith could be a dark horse Best Actor contender.”
Oscar Results: Major Failure: It was never going to be an Oscar contender, but that’s probably not what the producers thought when they greenlit the project. Will Smith must be fuming considering he was one of the reason the idiotic #OscarsSoWhite campaign launched when he wasn’t even close to getting a nod last year.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Will Smith hadn’t had a major hit in some time, but Suicide Squad changed all that. Add in several famous faces and a heart-tugging trailer and you have a recipe for a major seasonal hit.”
Box Office Results: $31 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Another failure for Will Smith whose once-magnetic box office draw has been diminished almost entirely.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The film should make a play for several creative categories, but beyond the sound and visual effects categories, I suspect it won’t gain much ground. Perhaps in editing as well.”
Oscar Results: Minor Success: The film played precisely where it was expected to with one exception. The film picked up nods for Sound Mixing and Visual Effects, but fell short in the Sound Editing category and didn’t even come close in Film Editing.
Box Office Prospects: $400 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The Star Wars name alone will make it a hit. The big question is will this first non-Episode of the franchise be as big as the main entries or will it perform a bit more weakly, especially considering how dark the film looks.”
Box Office Results: $532.2 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] As many memes have pointed out, you could make a most idiotic story into a Star Wars film and it would make tons of money. This is the first live-action one they’ve done outside the current narrative arcs, so it didn’t do as well as part VII did, but it certainly didn’t disappoint.

The Space Between Us

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The young love elements will probably give it a box office boost, but the trailer isn’t that impressive and something about the film just doesn’t feel like a major performer.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Pushed Back to 2/3/17

December 21 & 23, 2016

Assassin’s Creed

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Video game movies aren’t doing as well at the American box office as they should. That said, Michael Fassbender could be just enough of a draw to get this one closer to $100 million than many of its kind have ever dreamed.”
Box Office Results: $54.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Video game adaptations just don’t sell well at the box office. Either it’s disappointment for the failure to live up to lofty expectations or a general malaise among video game fans for the current output.

Passengers

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Early on, this seemed like a solid potential nominee in several categories, possibly even Best Picture. However, it seems like the film might just end up isolated to the tech categories like Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects.”
Oscar Results: Unexceptional: Nothing says failure to perform like this film. It was excluded in the categories it was most favored (sound and visual effects), but it picked up two less-than-expected nominations in Original Score and Production Design.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Are there two more bankable stars in Hollywood right now? The pairing of super charismatic Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt should be enough to get the film to or above $100 million. Whether it can fly higher depends on how good it actually is.”
Box Office Results: $100 M
Thoughts: [Success] It’s amazong how on the nose this prediction was. It was successful, but not so successful as to be a major year-end success story.

Sing

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “(Uncertain) With strong reviews, this could be one of the key Best Animated Feature contenders.”
Oscar Results: Flop: Although the film was big at the box office, the Animated Feature category was so stacked that even Finding Dory couldn’t crack the lineup. This film had no chance in that situation.
Box Office Prospects: $275 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Animation is hot at the box office even when the films aren’t very good. However, everything about this film screams out for blockbuster status and if reviews are as good as I suspect, it will be one of the top box office performers of the year.”
Box Office Results: $270.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] Another on-target prediction. The movie was bound to succeed thanks to cute animals and popular trends.

Why Him?

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While Office Christmas Party seems like it has solid hit potential, this film doesn’t feel like it has the same potential. James Franco isn’t exactly a box office draw, nor is Bryan Cranston.”
Box Office Results: $60.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It wasn’t big, but it did well enough to justify its release.

A Monster Calls (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While the film looks like a winner, the Academy doesn’t always like to recognize dark dramas targeting younger audiences. This could be the exception.”
Oscar Results: Flop: With an effort, the producers could have turned this into a major Oscar player, but a botched release schedule, poor handling, and a dearth of visibility doomed this film to never-ran status.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While the film is slated for a limited initial release, this is the kind of movie that family holiday excursions were made for. While it has some dark elements, there’s little doubt the film has potential.”
Box Office Results: $3.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The studio butchered the film’s release as well as its Oscar campaign. It’s not surprising the film flopped the way it did. Unfortunate.

Patriots Day (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Like American Sniper, this film could be the balm for a patriotic subset of Oscar voters. While Peter Berg is certainly no Clint Eastwood, strong box office plus good notices from critics could give it a chance in Best Picture and possibly some creative categories, but that’s about as far as I can see it going.”
Oscar Results: Flop: There’s something about a Peter Berg film that excites those who really shouldn’t be that excited. His Lone Survivor did better than expected, so it was reasonable to assume that this hyper-patriotic drama about the Boston Marathon Bombing could have been a major Oscar player. Not only was it not, but the film couldn’t even parlay its patriotism into box office success.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The title alone should guarantee solid business. The anti-terror aspect the film very likely evokes should prove catnip to the overly patriotic even if the film isn’t very good. Early word suggest that it might actually be good, which will undoubtedly help.”
Box Office Results: $31.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Peter Berg has made movies that have been a success, but also makes flops. It’s actually surprising just how much this one failed by.

Silence (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Sight unseen, Martin Scorsese is a sure contender for the Oscars. Its late release and limited press roll out might hinder its chances, though.”
Oscar Results: Minor Flop: As expected, the late press roll-out hindered the film’s Oscar chances. What was once thought to be a major player for this year’s Oscars turned into an also-ran scoring only one nomination for Best Cinematography.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Period Scorsese isn’t the biggest box office draw and this subject matter in particular seems like a good fit for cineastes, but not for general audiences.”
Box Office Results: $7.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Martin Scorsese can be a box office draw, but his spiritual films tend to become obscure knick-knacks that most people don’t watch in the theater.

December 28, 2016

Fences

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. Denzel Washington and Viola Davis are sure acting nominees and the film looks to be one of the strongest contenders in categories like Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay.”
Oscar Results: Success: Although the film’s release came with bad news for Denzel Washington as Best Director, the film still managed a strong showing with four Oscar nominations and taking home an Oscar for Viola Davis’ performance.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While it won’t likely play well to broad audiences, there’s plenty of interest in this type of drama to make it a solid hit in multiple demographics.”
Box Office Results: $57.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While it didn’t quite perform up to expectations because of Denzel Washington’s presence, it certainly did well enough.

Gold

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film wants to draw fans of Matthew McConaughey to the theater, but as his Civil War drama Free State of Jones proved, his fans won’t show up for just anything. I suspect that might projection might actually be way too high.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Pushed Back to 1/27/17

20th Century Women (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While some say Annette Bening is one fo the year’s key Best Actress contenders, the trailer doesn’t showcase much for her and the film may not be that good, which could hinder her chances. Of course, early pushing by Oscar bloggers could make her nomination inevitable, even if the film itself is otherwise ignored.”
Oscar Results: Minor Success: Although Annette Bening put up a good fight, a nomination wasn’t to be. The film did, however, pick up a nomination for Best Original Screenplay, so it wasn’t a complete failure.
Box Office Prospects: $12 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The specialty box office crowd will surely go see it, but without Oscar nominations, it won’t likely be a break-out hit.”
Box Office Results: $5.7 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The single Oscar nomination the film received just wasn’t enough to bolster its box office potential.

Hidden Figures (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Without knowing how critics will see the film, it’s difficult to know how the Academy will treat it. That it was scheduled for 2017, but given an Oscar-qualifying run could be good news for at least Oscar winner Octavia Spencer in Best Supporting Actress, if not the film in other big categories.”
Oscar Results: Success: The Oscar-qualifying run the film was given turned out to be the prediction of its future success. While many thought it could end up a major player thanks to its precursor run, the film only managed to pick up three nominations, though one of them was a significant one: Best Picture.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. While not nearly as likely to be a hit as Fences, there is enough to believe the film could do decently well, possibly on The Help level of success. A lot depends on how it performs with critics.”
Box Office Results: $169 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Huge is the best word to describe this. Although it seemed like a solid effort, there was no guarantee that it would be this big a hit.

Live by Night (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. There hasn’t been nearly as much talk about this film as Affleck’s prior efforts. While Argo won Best Picture, Affleck wasn’t nominated. Of course, many have been surprised by Affleck’s Oscar strength in the past, so the late release might help build some measure of buzz…that is if it’s any good and we won’t know that for a little while.”
Oscar Results: Flop: Ben Affleck had been an Oscar Golden Boy for a few years, with each film slowly increasing in terms of Oscar prospects. Yet, his first attempt at a period drama was rushed to release and became both a box office failure and an insignificant player in the Oscar race.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The period setting of the film will be its biggest stumbling block. However, director Ben Affleck has proven that audiences aren’t entirely against such things.”
Box Office Results: $10.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Every director has their flops and this is Ben Affleck’s first. The period gangster film just doesn’t have an audience these days.

Paterson (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. Early in its festival run, many thought Adam Driver would be a Best Actor contender and the film could otherwise be an Oscar player. However, little has been seen or said about the film since, which suggests that it might not have nearly as much potential as it once did.”
Oscar Results: Unexceptional: Although the film picked up some notices for Adam Driver’s performance, the film was utterly forgotten by Academy voters.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. I can’t imagine this film being much of a box office darling and even on the specialty circuit, I suspect it will struggle.”
Box Office Results: $2.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Any expectation of box office success was a fantasy. The film never had much of a chance outside of the specialty circuit.